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Videos

JohnMSmart — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 18:53:14 CDT

Great Futures Videos (GFV’s) for Foresight Development
Top recommended videos for this course.
We will watch up to 15 of these during Futures Movie Nights, roughly one per week.

Week 1 - Futures Studies
The Future We Will Create: Inside the World of TED, 2007
Future Living 2025, Discovery Channel, 2007
Pandora's Box (Six Episodes), Adam Curtis, 1992
Week 2 - Science
Origins: Fourteen Billion Years of Cosmic Evolution, Episode 4: Where Are the Aliens?, NOVA, 2004
Evolution (8 Episode Series): Episode 2 - Great Transformations, PBS, 2001
Judgment Day: Intelligent Design on Trial, NOVA, 2007
Week 3 - Tech, Part I
Beyond Human, Episode 2: Living Machines, Thomas Lucas, PBS, 2001
2057: The Body, The City, The World (3 Episodes), Discovery Channel
Future Cars: Episode 1 - Extreme Cars (4 Episodes), Discovery Channel, 2007
Future Weapons: Smart Weapons, (Season 1, Episode 4), Discovery Channel, 2006
Tokyo's Sky City and Transatlantic Tunnel, Extreme Engrg (S1, Ep 1), Discovery Channel, 2006
Week 4 - Tech, Part II
Computers - Modern Marvels, History Channel, 2005
Pirates of Silicon Valley, Martyn Burke, 1999
Amazing story of the birth of the personal computer, the first great chapter in the democratization of computing. The Internet/Web 1.0 was the second. Is Web 2.0 the third?
Startup.com, Chris Hegedus, 2001
Tech startups can be abysmal in new industries, where foresight is lacking. These Web 1.0 guys burn through 60 million in 18 months, leaving nada to show for it. Incredibly instructive.
Revolution OS, J.T.S. Moore, 2002
Video Game Invasion: The History of a Global Obsession, David Comtois, 2004
Week 5 - Global, Part I
World in the Balance: The Population Paradox and China Revs Up, NOVA, 2004 (2 Episodes)
Planet in Peril: A CNN Worldwide Investigation (2 Episodes), CNN, 2007
Energy Crossroads, Chris Fauchere, 2007
Solar Energy: Saved by the Sun, NOVA, 2007
The 11th Hour, Leonard Di Caprio, 2008
Sensational but well-argued call for a pervasive mindset change for our species to live sustainably in coming generations. See also their 11th Hour Action Network for a solutions community.
Week 6 - Global, Part II
Commanding Heights, Episode 1: The Battle of Ideas, Daniel Yergin, 2003
Commanding Heights, Episode 3: The New Rules of the Game, Daniel Yergin, 2003
Utopia, Paragon, 2005
The worst mass crimes of the 20th century were created by "top-down" utopian futurists with grand visions and power, and no sufficiently organized opposition, or pluralistic checks and balances. Lenin, Hitler, Mao are all chillingly portrayed in this compelling film.
People's Century (Award-winning 26 episode series on the 20th Century) Great Leap: 1943-1976, PBS, 1999
Incredible story of the heartbreaking, dysfunctional impact of Mao Tse Tung, one of the most powerful utopian futurists of the 20th century, up to and during the Cultural Revolution in China.
Confronting the Truth,
The growth of truth commissions. They address the pain of the past, restore human rights and due process, create institutional memory, and ensure social horrors will not be repeated.
Uganda Rising, Pete McCormack, 2006
Great story about Ugandan politics and the youth-soldiers in the Lords Resistance Army. Social engineering (amnesty & reconciliation) can address complex issues of civil violence.
Week 7 - Economics
Wal-Mart: The High Cost of Low Price, Robert Greenwald, 2005
Learn about the largest, wealthiest company in the world. Clearly unfair US government subsidies, substandard wages and health care, exploitation of Chinese workers, aggressively antiunion policies allowing substandard working conditions to persist. Strong social democracies like Germany hold Wal-Mart to a significantly higher set of social standards. When will we?
The Corporation (2 Disc Special Edition), Mark Achbar, 2004
Overly histrionic and sloppy, yet still a reasonably useful exploration of the excesses of the corporate entity in the 20th century, which have become less extreme in individual instance, yet more pervasive as corporate wealth has grown to exceed national wealth the world over. Briefly considers the unrealized possibilities for corporate charter revocation and reform.
Sicko (Special Edition), Michael Moore, 2007
One of Moore's more balanced works, while still biased infotainment. Special features on the DVD include this 8 minute piece on Norway's health care and penal system. Moore highlights Norwegian outliers in the prison bit, without telling you, as is typical of his propagandism. Nevertheless, the lesson sinks in: these countries, with oil and without, are well ahead of us in development of their social democracies, for a host of reasons Moore ignores. When will citizens here have the power to restructure the laws so we have a health care system that is required to put universal care ahead of profits? We shall see.
Week 8 - Politics + Security
Why We Fight, Eugene Jarecki, 2006
No End In Sight, Charles Ferguson, 2007
Our Brand is Crisis, Rachel Boynton, 2005
The Fog of War, Errol Morris, 2003
Well-Founded Fear: Gaining Political Asylum in America, Shari Robertson, 2001
Week 9 - Media, Education, Culture
Orwell Rolls in His Grave, Robert Kane Pappas, 2004
Outfoxed: Rupert Murdoch's War on Journalism, Robert Greenwald, 2004
News War (4 Episode Series: Episode 3 - What's Happening to the News, Lowell Bergman, Frontline, 2007
News War (4 Episode Series: Episode 4 - Stories from a Small Planet, Lowell Bergman, Frontline, 2007
Declining By Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, John Merrow, PBS, 2005
2 Million Minutes: A Documentary Calculating the Educational Divide, Chad Heeter, 2007
Revealing, hard-hitting documentary financed by multimillionaire venture capitalist Bob Compton. It demonstrates just how far behind the United States education in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) has fallen, and just how comfortable we are with this situation. The modern global marketplace is highly competitive, and the leading innovations and companies of the future are going to come from countries that have strong STEM education and an innnovative culture. Will we recognize how vulnerable we are, and reform our educational system and start immigrating the best and the brightest again, or will we continue to slide into social narcissism and global irrelevancy? Fortunatlely each of us has the choice, for ourselves at least, even as US culture and educational systems have increasingly failed us in this regard in the last 50 years. Can we turn them around?
Week 10 - Biz-Org, Part I
Who Killed the Electric Car?, Chris Paine, 2006
We Built this City - Paris, Discovery Channel, 2005
Week 11 - Biz-Org, Part II
Merchants of Cool, Barak Goodman, Frontline, PBS, 2005
The Persuaders, Rachel Dretzin, Frontline, PBS, 2005
Architecture to Zucchini: People, Co’s, and Orgs Pioneering Sustainability, 2006
Week 12 - Personal-Career, Part I
A Whole New Mind, Daniel Pink, 2006
The Up Series, Michael Apted (Three 20 min pieces, 7 up, 21 up, and 42 up)
Mr. Personality (Intvw w/ Forensic Psychologist Michael Stone) on The Thin Blue Line, Errol Morris, 2005
Week 13 - Personal-Career, Part II
Maxed Out, James Scurlock, 2005
Secret History of the Credit Card, Frontline, David Rummel, 2004
Week 14 - Personal-Career, Part III
Bringing Down a Dictator, Steve York, 2002
A Force More Powerful: Episode 2, Steve York, 2000 (2 episodes)
Street Fight, Marshall Curry, 2005
Modern politics and racial stereotyping in the 2002 Newark, NJ Mayoral campaign. The corruption and dishonesty are incredible, the electorate is hoodwinked, yet there is still hope.
Week 15 - Personal-Career, Part IV
Legacy, Tod Lending, 2006
The Bridge, Eric Steel, 2006
The Business of Being Born, Abby Epstein, 2007
Shows the way Americans, as the world's most convenience-oriented culture, have allowed the business of medicine to turn childbirth into a profit center, and an experts-only affair. The low number of parents who use midwives (8% in US vs. 70% in Europe) illustrates our patriarchal, numbed-out approach. Is it any wonder that our parenting is also increasingly hands off as well? Fortunately we can rise above the limitations of our disempowering culture and make childbirth, parenting, funeral arrangements, insurance, and other big life choices something that we control, ourselves.

Other Great Futures Videos (GFV’s) and Video Sites
In Top, STEEPS3, Multidisciplinary, and Fiction Categories
Place them in alpha order under each category, please.

Top Futures Videos and Video Sites

General

Did You Know / Shift Happens 2.0, Karl Fisch and Scott McLeod, 2007
Excellent set of thought-provoking futures statistics on our accelerating world.
Did You Know / Shift Happens 3.0, Karl Fisch, Scott McLeod, and Jeff Brenman, 2008
More great shift statistics. Updated for a Sony BMG executive meeting June 2008.
The Machine is Us/ing Us (Final Verson), Michael Wesch (4:33)
Nice into to Web 2.0 architecture, and its long term promise to improve our collective intelligence.

A Vision of Students Today,Michael Wesch (4:44)

Another great Michael Wesch video about students in the 21st century.

Hyperland [1990], Douglas Noel Adams (49:21)
Get to know your virtual guide, a futurist's view of interactive media's future.
Extremely accurate and highly predictive.
Note: I just had to add something by one of the greatest futurists who rarely gets recognized. [Roivas]

Comedy

Here Comes Another Bubble, Matt Hempey and the Richter Scales (2:45)
Satirizing Web 2.0 stock inflation. Hilarious. 1999 here we go again!
ApplePresents... the iRack!, MAD TV, Season 12 Episode 15, 2007 (4:17)
Hilarious analogy between G. Bush and Iraq and S. Jobs and Apple's suite of iProducts. Great hook ending too.

Science, Evolution, and Development Videos and Video Sites

A Thousand Years of Darkness, Carl Sagan (9:45)
Thoughtful excerpt from Sagan's Cosmos series, describing the great scientific advances of the Western world, and specifically the Egyptian city of Alexandria from the 3rd Century BC to 3rd Century AD, and how the knowledge of that era was stalled for 1,000 years, as human society turned away from critical thinking and toward blind faith and nationalism. Could this happen again? How do we make sure that a scientific attitude' is cultivated in our societies, and that science's benefits are made available to all, not just the privileged?

Intro to Genetic Engineering
This is a good video containing a monologue from a futurist reviewing the idea behind genetic engineering and the possible good and bad that could come from it. These good and bad things range from giving human genes to pigs so their organs can be better used for transplants to humans to possibly creating a super disease with our tinkering.

Powers of Ten: The Films of Charles and Ray Eames (Volume 1), 1968.
The first and still one of the best film versions of an incredible "dimensional tour" of the structures of our universe, starting with a human and going down to the quarks and up to the level of the whole universe.

Future By Design - Trailer - Movie
"Future By Design presents a bold, new direction for humanity that entails nothing less than the total redesign of our culture." It is presented by a man who is called a modern day Leonardo Da Vinci. It shows great insight to what the future may be like.
[Kristopher Velez]

Technology and Information Videos and Video Sites

QRIO spends time with Children
Javier Movellan at the University of California San Diego, US, took one of Sony's Qrio's and let it interact with toddlers. The children treated it like they would any other kid. Not only that, but when it laid down (function called upon when its batteries are low) the toddlers would put a blanket over it and wish it a good night. We as adults may not accept robots, but this shows that children truly are blind to anything we learn as we get older. -MustanshioMcHatman

Connections (10 Episodes), James Burke, 1978/2001.
This award-winning series is subtitled "An alternative view of change." It represents the views of James Burke, a leading technology historian, who helps us understand the serendipitous and highly interconnected and interdisciplinary nature of scientific and technological discovery. Episode 3 Distant Voices is particularly future-relevant. It begins with a suitcase nuclear bomb and ends with the Arecibo radio wave antenna/transmitter: the first represents the disruptive threat of technology and the second its ability to bring us all together. We live in the middle space between these two gargantuan opposing forces. How we use them shapes our future, perhaps more than anything else we do. - John Smart
Ancient Discoveries: Computers, The History Channel, 2004
(Not Available For Sale Yet at the History Channel. Does Anyone Have? We Need A DVD Copy of This For Our Library!)
"The classical world of the 3rd Century BC produced three of the most important computing machines in history - Ctesibius’ clock, Vitruvius’ odometer and the spectacular Antikythera mechanism, an model of the cosmos in a wooden box." Could the computer age have started 2,000 years before its time? Quite possibly so, with a better culture of foresight, and just a little bit more luck. - J Smart
Ancient Discoveries: Heron of Alexandria, The History Channel, 2004
(Not Available For Sale Yet at the History Channel. Does Anyone Have? We Need A DVD Copy of This For Our Library!)
About Heron (aka Hero) of Alexandria, Egypt, 20-70AD, and his many amazing inventions, including a primitive rotary steam engine. Could the Roman Empire have had the steam engine 1,500 years before its time? Quite possibly so,with a better culture of foresight, and just a little bit more luck. - J Smart

Webb Alert. This is a video blog made by one of the hosts of X-Play on G4. It is a daily roundup of all the big news in the tech world that provides links to all the storys covered in each episode so the viewer can do a follow up. Each episode is only about five minutes long so it doesn't take up too much time and provides some insight into each story. - Bernard Clary

Jeff Han (Interface Free Computer Screen)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLhMVNdplJc

First 10 Minutes of Minority Report http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqPWUnaBNSA

Cars of the Future http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tQtgbH4X5k

Future Soldiers http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gu0UiaI0u8w

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/128967/water_as_fuel/ This guy first off started making what i believe to be a welder that runs off water. Now he is working on a Hummer for the military that runs off water and gas. If this technology works some problems with our fossil fuels might end, but then perhaps new ones may come up with our supply of water?
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/170583/car_of_the_future/ This has to be the coolest video i have seen. No pedals to stop or accelerate, no mirrors, its just amazing.
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/523332/ultra_mobile_pc_takes_on_navigation_and_communication_in_the_fut/ This is another video about future technologies, it shows how intergrated they will become in our lives. I like this video too because it shows how we dream about the future and all it takes its a dream to make it happen.

Armsted Snow-Car Concept Car, 1926 (11:05)
A really amazing video of a combination of a Ford tractor and a Chevrolet auto body. Armsted Snow Motors Co. thought these were going to take off in Winter in the US, on all the farms and back roads where there was no good snow plowing. Why do you think the Snow Car never emerged as predicted? What stopped it? Could this car still be a good solution today in some kinds of applications? Explain.

Jatech Rotary Drop Car Doors, 2009 (3:03)
What do you think of this car door? It has many advantages, but are there also hidden problems? Do you think we'll see more doors like this in coming years? Explain.

Environment, Energy, Resources, and Global Videos and Video Sites

We Built this City - Paris, Discovery Channel, 2005
Great overview of the many urban planning challenges and solutions needed to keep Paris functioning, from 50 BC to the present. Excellent history lesson too, all in one hour. Paris has one of the most interesting histories of any city in the world.

The Future of Food - This is a YouTube video that is a bit dated but shows the progression of our genetic modification on the food we eat. There's also insight here on the issues that could arise if we don't work out the political issues behind modifying genes. As the video makes a point in saying, modified food has advantages but we don't want to have the seeds to the majority of our food owned by a few private corporations.

William McDonough: The wisdom of designing Cradle to Cradle - Interesting Youtube Video about intelligent "cradle-to-cradle" city design and environmental awareness. China is beginning to use his models.

Salt water as fuel! - Youtube Video on the discovery of salt water as a fuel. When exposed to a radio wave salt water explodes, this could be the end of oil and global warming.

Compressed air as fuel! - Youtube Video on running cars on compressed air.

Windbelt- An alternative to wind microturbinesin developing nations (or anywhere there's a breeze) -Pajamas

Economics, Globalization, and Capitalism Videos and Video Sites

The Century of the Self, Adam Curtis, BBC Two, 2002.
Explores an insightful but overly dramatized connection between Edward Bernays, founder of modern public relations, and the economics of our mass consumption society. Brilliant in parts and good background to understanding modern consumerism, but we need something a bit more even handed to complement it. - John Smart

Money as Debt - An insightful documentary (with a conspiracy theory twist) that explains where money comes from. It relates to future studies because the monetary system it describes (which we're in) is one that requires perpetual debt and exponentially increasing growth. A great exampleis at 24:24. However it states that the perpetual growth needed is impossible because it would require exponentially exploiting resources, definatly not a stable practice. However if resource use per dollar of GDP goes down over time, the system may be stable for a long time.

I want to learn perfect english!
A youtube clip of a crowd in China practicing english. When the crowd begins chanting "I want to learn perfect english!" I don't know whether to be proud or terrified of them. A few other subtle phrases clue the watcher in to what values the Chinese are trying to instill in their people ("I don't want to let my countri down!") - Tom Andrys

Politics, Security, and Democracy Videos and Video Sites

Reds, Warren Beatty, 1981.
A fictional but very well-done introduction to the Cultural Revolution in China

Society 1 (Big): Culture, Media, Education and Religion Videos and Video Sites

Futurama, Volumes 1-4, Matt Groening, 1999
Probably the best futures comedy series in the world, and one of the best animated cartoon series of all time. Many folks consider the five episodes of Futurama (more coming now that it is being revived) even smarter and funnier than The Simpsons.

WMD: Weapons of Mass Deception, Danny Schecter, 2004
Media deconstructionist Schecter gives his analysis on the "selling" of the Iraq war to the American and global populace by a highly centralized, highly managed corporate media, whose interests have become so fully in line with government policy that we have lost our independent and investigative journalistic ethic in these venues. Television news has been fully captured by show business, and no obvious countervailing trend is in sight, at present. - John Smart

http://www.break.com/index/halo-takes-over-the-world.html
This Video is true, I have seen it.

Declining by Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, PBS, 2005
Great coverage of the way higher educational standards have been weakening in the US. Predictable consequence of affluence?

We Didn't Start the Fire, Billy Joel, Mr. Allsop's History Class, 2007, 4:44
Awesome video version of Billy Joel's famous song about the transience and craziness of life. Full of pop culture references from the 50's and 60's and a bit of the 70's. Live every day like it is your last, because individual death is inevitable but individual life is a daily gift!

Life on Life, Sterling Wright, 2007, 13:00
Great short video on the chaotic, fanciful, inspiring and exasperating world that is Second Life. An award-winning machinima short about one woman's one year travel through this fascinating, evolving community.

Society - Humor
Study Finds Growing Gap Between America's Rich and Super-Rich, Onion News Network, 2:42
Panelists discuss a new study showing the gap between the wealthy and the absurdly wealthy is widening, and how we can help the merely rich catch up. Classic humor from The Onion! Lots of other good videos at this site.

The Professor Brothers
Should get you all thinking deeply about our past, present and future. The human mind fully condensed into a one ounce pill. Start talking about the future, do it.

Society 2 (Medium): Business and Organization Videos and Video Sites

Society 3 (Small): Personal & Career Videos and Video Sites

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRCFWdZicOM. This is what they think the future of kitchens will be like I don't know about you guys but this would be awsome. Just push a button and your food appears and then the stove is cleaned off without you ever touching it. That would be so cool. A touch screen for every thing in the kitchen. That is a cool future. - Michael Stringfellow

Multidisciplinary Videos and Video Sites

Realistic Future Fiction (RFF) Videos and Video Sites
[Realistic future fiction has major parts which feel like they actually could happen in the future, under the right circumstances. Almost all fantasy stories and most science fiction stories really don't count as realistic--there are exceptions however, and if you think that some particular aspect of a fantasy or SF book feels realistic, include it here and explain why. Realistic future fiction is a subgenre of general or science fiction that feels realistic (it could actually happen) most of the way through, to most readers. Well-crafted and highly realistic realistic future fiction is rare, as you can imagine.]

Realistic Singularity Fiction (RSF).
By far the most obvious monumental sci-tech advance looming ahead of us is the arrival of greater than human intelligence, likely within this 21st century. Judith Berman, in "Science Fiction Without the Future," 2001, noted that writing about the coming AI is so difficult (emotionally and intellectually) that most sci-fi writers, and their readers in collusion, have simply abandoned reading or thinking about realistic science fiction, turning to comfortable fantasy instead (e.g., Star Trek and other such impossible but comforting 'space operas'). Nevertheless, there are a handful of efforts that attempt to realistically describe the likely coming emergence of AI, and the implications of an AI world on human beings, in at least a partially plausibile way. We call such fiction RSF.
Here are a few RSF favorites:

Bicentennial Man
iRobot

Other Realistic Future Fiction
(Student-Submitted, Alpha Order by Title).

Appleseed. Trailer:http://www.veoh.com/videos/v6158546CNez6Jx?searchId=7171439527040274323&rank=1
This anime presents a future world where a great war has tarnished most of the land. Common topic, I know. Its a good movie, in that world, the story takes place in a super futuristic city, that is supposed to be a "UTOPIA" The most realistic thing about this is that the government consists of "elders" who are under the main government figure GAIA, a computer program. Also the human existence with "bioroids" who are in essence advanced humans, not robots. It is worth watching, it, as do many animes, questions our abilities as humans to rule ourselves, and presents a cool environment, and many differing perspectives.(stephen271)

Battlestar Galactica
"The world ended with no warning, and all that was left … was hope." This isn't a video, but a series on the sci-fi channel. It deals with the surviving humans living in space, fighting against the Cylons (robots that they had created that soon grew to have a mind of their own - When Cylons are killed they merely resurrect in their ship in some form of pod) and in constant search of "the mythical, lost "13th colony" — Earth." -Katie Lindner-

Children of Men - Children of Men is worth taking a look at for a more rough, realistic view of our future. It feels completely real if you give in to one idea. This idea being that mankind would suddenly lose all fertility. Once you get past this idea and the religious overtones, Children of Men portrays this possible future with startling realism down to the acts of terrorism and political upheaval mankind would break down into if it was known the species had less than a century left before extinction.

Forbidden Planet (Ultimate Collector's Edition), 1956
One of the most inflential science fiction movies ever made. A loose adaptation of Shakespeare's The Tempest, about a culture wiped out by accelerating technological change. Will that happen to us? Inspired Star Trek and a whole host of successor science fiction movies.

Firefly/Serenity – Its a show and movie based off of the human race leaving planet earth and colonizing other planets. It has a lot of interesting ideas about space frontiers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firefly_(TV_series)

Equilibrium – Is a movie pretty much based off of the book Fahrenheit 451. It's not huge into technology but more into future censorship and idea of how to control emotions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equilibrium_(2002_film)

Fifth Element- If you haven't seen this then you need to. It's about a cosmic evil coming to destroy earth and the only person that can stop it is the prefect human. It has some cool ideas about future cites and process. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fifth_Element

Gattaca, 1998
Good dystopia about a world where genetic enhancement has led us back to a world of sharp class division (like the disappearing caste system in India), those who have the enhancements and those who don't. Access to the good jobs are only available to the enhanced. The five minute section on choosing one's genetic features for one's children feels very realistic. It already exists today and is called Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD), but is still very expensive and somewhat controversial.

Ghost In The Shell - This is a really sweet anime/manga/video game series to check out because of the amount of things in it that are realistic. From the idea of AI eventually developing human attributes on its own to the practice of taking and downloading one's mind into a completely fabricated body, there are many things in this anime that could prove to be truly futuristic. The series even includes a version of the internet that is accessed in a multitude of ways, including through the mind.

Gundam Wing - trowgundam
Gundam Wing is perhaps my favorite TV Show of all time. The real reason for this is because I can really seeing something just like this or close to the basics of Gundam Wings plot. Basically, the human race starts to build colonies in space and these colonies feel like breaking free of the Earth so they rebel. At the same time an organization known as OZ takes over Earth's government and ruthlessly squashes the rebellion. With how history has folded out so far, this is a very plausible scenario in my eyes.

HarryPotter
Harry Potter what more can i say its a bunch of kids with power and what make it more weird they are all british. So yeah kids that have a magic wond that can grant any wish they want as long as they learn the spell and everything they can use thier magic powers for good and evil. Why would give kids powers that are going to use it for evil makes no sense. Regardless i wish i had powers.-Darnell gILL

Handmaid's Tale, 1990
Dystopian story, very similar to Children of Men, that assumes rapid loss of human fertility, nuclear war, and a global fundamentalist backlash and political decay.

Ideocracy, 2006
The first 20 minutes of this film have a realistic future feel, as they chronicle the lack of childraising that happens in the wealthier and more educated in any society, and the consequences of letting your society get dumbed down as you get affluent and lazy. Looks like the future of America to some degree, unfortunately.

Leonardo DaVinci and His Fightin' Genius Time-Commandos: The Tick [Episode 17]
This particular episode of The Tick features a new villain The Mother of Invention, who in spite of the name, is most likely male. His nefarious plot is to use his time machine to erase the most innovative people in history so he could invent these things himself. His main gripe is that all the easy stuff has already been created and is particularly jealous of the man who invented the wheel. Not the best episode of The Tick, but still fairly awesome.

Matrix (The Series)
The matrix is so cool to watch but yeah way to well i dont know the weird for it yet. Just stuff like in the movies three people walking into a club and able to get to the top floor and kill like hundred people in a battle. Smith able to clone himself, a huge flying ship that can sent out a EMP but that will destroy alot of robots that can fly.-DARNELL GILL

Outlaw Star - trowgundam
Outlaw Star is my second favorite anime, see my first entry. I believe Outlaw Star is another likely route that the human race can take. Basically the history is that the human race expanded from Earth and colonized many planets and met many new races. They entered an age of exploration much like what happened in the era when Columbus' expeditions took place. Just like back then their were pirates. The entire show is about an outlaw, an explorer, who has to fight pirates at every turn and contend with the nosy nature of the Space Forces, the government.

Serial Experiment Lain-
A great anime series about.... well I've asked six other people and they've come up with a different answer each time. The series is heavily focused on technology integrated into our lives, of course like most anime it is looked at through a mirror of schizophrenia.

Stealth- It is a movie about a new program in the U.S. Navy involving artificial intelligence and aircraft. The movie gives a look into a possible future of having an aircraft operate without human control.

Star Trek The Next Generation- (Someone had to mention it)
If you're into techno-babble as well as some pretty interesting futuristic ideas (teleportation, holograms, replicators) then this is a good series to watch. Although it is set far far into the future some of the stuff does have a decent chance of actually existing in the future and I would imagine the writers of this series did have quite a few futurists working with them coming up with new ideas.

Toyko Drift
Best movie to me one of them but way to much future in this movie. The cell they had though where you can watch a video from one spot and show someone else phone the same thing you are watching at that exact time and second. Thats bad ass but man what else can these thing do. Also the engines if you look closley their were made in japan which was like ultra made to do this high performance turning and super nos. THat movie had so much stuff build and Japan had it and kept it so again they stay above in technology-Darnell Gill

The Day the Earth Stood Still, 1951
One of the most intelligent sci-fi movies of the 1950s. Aliens come to Earth and give earthlings an ultimatum. Helps one realize how warlike and primitive the human species still is. Features Gort the robot and the phrase: "Klaatu barada nicto," later immortalized in the Evil Dead series.

The Final Cut - This movie is about the recording of memories by brain implants. When a person dies, all his memories are taken to someone who edits thier history and presents a sort of highlight reel at thier funeral for thier family members to watch. The recording of memories was mentioned in class a few times, so I thought this movie pertinent to add.

The Thirteen Floor --
Explores the idea of artificial life and the complications that arise from it. Basic premise is that a program is made where there are artificial inhabitants that are fully self aware. The users are able to virtually inject themselves into the program and get a first hand view. [Brant Hestrup]

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Videos and Video Sites of Uncertain Classification
Put below anyvideos and video sites you recommend but can't easily classify above...

Veeeery cool short looping flash video: Super ZOOM.
http://www.feanor.net/z0r/shock/superZOOM.swf

Periodicals

JohnMSmart — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 17:16:20 CDT

Great Futures Periodicals (Journals, Magazines and Print Newsletters)
In Top, STEEPS3, Multidisciplinary, and Fiction Categories
Place them in alpha order under each category, please.

Journals are peer-reviewed, academic or professional in focus. Magazines are editor-reviewed. Print Newsletters have the greatest degree of variability in peer-review, content and quality.

Science, Evolution, and Development
Technology and Information
Environment, Energy, Resources, and Global
Economics, Globalization, and Capitalism
Politics, Security, and Democracy
Society 1 (Big): Culture, Media, Education and Religion
Society 2 (Medium): Business and Organizations
Society 3 (Small): Personal & Careers
Multidisciplinary, Holistic, Complex

Top Futures Periodicals

A. 11 Primary Futures Journals (Identified To Date)
Note: We are using here the Primary and Secondary classification system ASF is using for global Futures Studies educational programs. See http://accelerating.org/gradprograms.html for more.
(Please add your additional finds and one- to two-line descriptions below).

Contingencies
Magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. Good data-backed forecasting models and process.
Foresight: The Internat'l Journal of Applied Forecasting (IIF)
Applied forecasting design, management, model building, case studies.
Futures: The Journal of Forecasting, Planning, and Policy
Broad coverage of medium and long term futures trends and scenarios.
Futures Research Quarterly (WFS)
Referreed journal of transdisciplinary futures research.
International Journal of Forecasting
Quantitative and occasional qualitative forecasting methodologies.
Journal of Futures Studies (Tamkang U)
Foresight, forecasting, long-range planning, visioning and futures research.
Journal of Business Forecasting
Practical analysis and skill development for business-forecasting practitioners.
Journal of Forecasting
Multidisciplinary coverage of the forecasting profession: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. Includes operations research, management science, decision analysis, statistics, and economics.
Journal of Prediction Markets
Articles on every aspect of the study of Prediction Markets, a fascinating new field of futures research.
Long Range Planning
A leading international journal of strategic management, aimed at senior managers (UK).
Technological Forecasting and Social Change (Elsevier)
Methodology and practice of tech forecasting and future studies as planning tools. Great futures emphasis.

B. Select Secondary Futures Journals and Magazines (Very Partial List)
(Please add your additional finds and one- to two-line descriptions below).

Information and Organization
Relationships between information technologies and social organization, and the social construction of IT.
Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research
Science and technology futures and innovation articles.
International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development
Fosters discussion of both technological innovation and new ways of thinking about the complex and contested issues of sustainable development. Nice balance between two great political forces, innovation and sustainability.
Seed: Science as Culture
Explores the deep ideas, personalities, and cultural effects of science.
Strategy + Business (BoozAllen)
Great U.S. business strategy quarterly. Strong foresight focus.
Technology Review
The leader in technology innovation reporting. Exemplary future awareness.
The Futurist (WFS)
Futures-related scanning magazine. Reasoned global and technological optimism.
Wired
The digerati's culture, opinion, and technology magazine. Trendy, excellent future focus. 8M circulation.
World Futures: The Journal of General Evolution
Study of system-structuring, evolutionary and developmental change in nature and society.

For many more secondary futures periodicals, see ASF's Community Directory > Periodicals

Science, Evolution, and Development Periodicals

Popular Science
Covers current and emerging technologies, including a section on the newest and upcoming gadgets. Always a little ahead of the curve, though usually not more than 5-10 years. [Eric Kaplan] .
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Technology and Information Periodicals

IEEE Spectrum
Spectrum magazine covers current and future tech trends and developments. From autonomous machines to video games, they cover a very broad spectrum (hence the name) and are backed by a trusted organization. [Chris Schoerning]
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Environment, Energy, Resources, and Global Periodicals

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Economics, Globalization, and Capitalism Periodicals

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Politics, Security, and Democracy Periodicals

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Society 1 (Big): Culture, Media, Education and Religion Periodicals

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Society 2 (Medium): Business and Organizations Periodicals

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Society 3 (Small): Personal & Careers Periodicals

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Multidisciplinary Periodicals

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Realistic Future Fiction Periodicals
[Realistic future fiction has major parts which feel like they actually could happen in the future, under the right circumstances. Most fantasy and a lot of science fiction really doesn't count as realistic--there are exceptions however, and if you think that some particular aspect of a fantasy or SF quotation feels realistic, include it here and explain why. Future fiction is a subgenre of general or science fiction that feels realistic most of the way through, to many readers. Good future fiction is quite hard to write, as you can imagine.]
(Please List any Realistic Future Fiction Periodicals Below in Alpha Order by Title)

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Periodicals of Uncertain Classification
Put below any journals, magazines or print newsletters you recommend but can't easily classify above...
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End

Books

JohnMSmart — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:03:45 CDT

Please add any books to the bottom of this page, and feel free to give any other feedback or have conversations in the comments section at the bottom. Thank You!
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

150 Great Futures Books (GFB’s) Featured in Foresight Development
Your basic Futurist's Library. Great works in Foresight Methods, Models, Compendia, and Topical Areas.
Each is overviewed, handed around, and briefly discussed in class, ten per week. Used in Unit 1-4 Essays.
All GFBs are on 4 Hour Reserve Checkout in the UAT Library. Most also have second (and sometimes third and fourth) copies available in the stacks for longer checkout. Click on links below for Amazon reviews. Several also offer the ability to "Search Inside the Book" through your browser. A great electronic index and research tool!

Week 1 – Intro to Futures Studies
The Pursuit of Destiny: A History of Prediction, Paul Halpern, 2000.
Great book on the success and failures of “prediction science.”
Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Hines & Bishop, 2007
Great practical text on how organizations can prepare for the future. 36 contributors.
Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education, James Dator, Ed., 2002.
History, courses, methods, concerns, and issues of teaching futures. 19 contributors.
A Brief History of Tomorrow: The Future Past and Present, Jonathan Margolis, 2001
Insightful and witty, “novel type” read on the wild and wooly field of futuring.
Contemporary Futurist Thought: Sci-Fi and Futures Studies, Thomas Lombardo, 2006
Good survey of the range and value of futures thinking by a futures studies professor.
Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Futures Studies, Ziauddin Sardar, Ed., 1999
18 futurists stress the need for non-Western cultures and concerns in futures.
Yesterday’s Tomorrows: Past Visions of the American Future, Joseph J. Corn, 1984
Beautiful pics of U.S. future images, discussion of the benefits and limits of visioning.
TechTV’s Catalog of Tomorrow: Trends Shaping Your Future, Andrew Zolli, Ed., 2003
100 fun two-page essays on trends and tech, looking out 5-20 years. 44 contributors.
MacMillan Atlas of the Future: 21st Century and Beyond, Ian Pearson, Ed., 1998
Maps and graphics popularizing future trends and issues for humanity. 25 contributors.
The Gaia Atlas of Future Worlds: Challenge and Opportunity, Norman Myers, 1990
Pretty atlas of trends, issues in global sustainability. Old enough do prediction-checking.

Week 2 – Evolution, Development, and the Future of Science
Decoding the Universe: The New Science of Information, Charles Siefe, 2006
Information physics is relating brains to black holes, and predicting the multiverse.
Astrobiology: A Beginners Guide, Lewis Dartnell, 2007
Intro to the new science of astrobiology: how special planets create life, on Earth and elsewhere.
Biocosm: A New Scientific Theory of Evolution, James Gardner, 2003
Argues our universe has many of the features of a biological system, and had an "intelligent" start.
The Privileged Planet: Our Anthropic Place in the Cosmos, Gonzalez and Richards, 2004
Argues that Earth is in a "special" place in the cosmos. Observer bias? How would you test this?
Endless Forms Most Beautiful: The New Science of Evo Devo, Scott Carroll, 2006
Great intro to biological evo devo: how evolution and development interact in organisms.
Life’s Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe, Simon Conway-Morris, 2003
Great intro to universal evo devo: how evolution leads to "convergent evolution" in Universe.
The Origins of Virtue: Human Instincts and the Evolution of Cooperation, Matt Ridley, 1998
Shortoverview of how societies build cooperation and morality through collaboration.
The Next 50 Years: Science in the First Half of the 21st Century, John Brockman, Ed., 2002
25 essays on the future of the Cosmos, Math, Neurosci, Bio, Culture, Morality, and Prediction.
The End of Science: Facing the Limits of the [Human-Only] Scientific Age, John Horgan, 1997
Controversial, fascinating arguments that science is running into human limits. Will AI's do better?
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, Carl Sagan, 1997
A call to scientific and "evidence-based" thinking to help solve humanity's problems.

Week 3 – Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part I
Maps of Time: An Introduction to Big History, David Christian, 2004
Good overview of the "Big Picture" of accelerating change, from a universal perspective.
Society and Technological Change, 5th. Ed., Rudi Volti, 2005
Good STS textbook on the impact of technological change on society in many ways and over centuries.
The Change Function: Why Some Technol. Take Off & Others Crash, Pip Coburn, 2006
Why people don't try new things until the perceived benefits outweigh the pain of change.
The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intell., Ray Kurzweil, 2000
Great insights on tech acceleration. Proposes that human-intell. computers will arrive by mid-century.
Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing, Adam Greenfield, 2006
Explains how computers are becoming miniaturized, interconnected, and embedded everywhere.
Nanotechnology: Science, Innovation, and Opportunity, Lynn Foster, Ed., 2005
Great introduction to the many opportunities and challenges of nanotech for humans and the world.
Hacking Matter: The Infinite Weirdness of Programmable Atoms, Wil McCarthy, 2004
A sometimes-crazy romp through the really powerful, really weird world of "Inner Space."
Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Human Enhancement, Joel Garreau, 2006
Outlines three key social paths for the future of GRIN (Genetics, Robotics, Info, Nano) technologies.
Intervention: The Real Risks of Genetic Engineering and Biotech, Denise Caruso, 2006
Good exploration of the risks of biotech, and the social values that limit its adoption.
Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age, Bill McKibben, 2004
A strong call for preserving human values, identity, and culture in our rapid technological age.

Week 4 – Accelerating Change and Future of Technology, Part II
Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorg., Greg Stock, 1993
A very good book on human-machine symbiosis, written from a biological perspective.
Visions of Technology: A Century of Debate about Machines, Richard Rhodes, 2000
Vignettes on the social impact of 20th century tech change, by an emininent historian.
Technology Matters: Questions to Live With, David Nye, 2006
Key Q's about tech: Is it predictable? Does it control us? How does it change work? Culture?
Technopoly: The Surrender of Culture to Technology, Neil Postman, 1993
Great exposition of the ways technology weakens society, and ideas on how to fight back.
Technology and the Future, Albert Teich, 10th Ed, AAAS, 2005
Good range of mostly conservative views on tech futures and social responses.
Synthetic Worlds: The Business and Culture of Online Games, Edward Castronova, 2006
Social and economic trends in VWs, games, and the coming Metaverse economy.
Deception: Pakistan, the US and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation, Levy and Scott-Clark, 2007
WMDs are a major problem. US policy short-sightedness has proliferated nuke tech globally.
The Long Emergency: Surviving the Catastrophes of the 21st Century, James Kunstler, 2006
Doomsaying that peak oil and climate change can't be fixed fast enough to prevent collapse.
The Bottomless Well: Why We Will Never Run out of Energy, Huber and Mills, 2006
Techno-optimist, utopian ideas that new tech and free markets solve all energy problems.
The Two Faces of Tomorrow, James Hogan, Yukinobu Hoshino, 2006
Fictional account of one of the great questions of 21C tech: How do we trust the coming AI?

Week 5 – Global Trends, Scenarios, and Models
Global Trends 2015: A Dialog About the Future, CIA, 2005
Excellent, concise, CIA-compiled database of important global trends and implications.
Modernization, Cultural Change, & Democracy: Values & Devel., Ronald Inglehart, 2005
Summary of 40 years of research showing how development creates a common set of values.
The Transparent Society: Technology, Privacy and Freedom, David Brin, 1999
Balanced treatment of the upsides and downsides of our accelerating global transparency.
Which World?: Scenarios for the 21st Century, Allen Hammond, 1998
Three institutions look out to 2050 and paint three different scenarios for the global future.
The Global Technology Revolution 2020: Executive Summary, RAND, 2006
Great overview of trends, challenges, and options in nano, bio and info technologies.
Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Jeroen van der Veer, 2005
Energy, resources, economic, and political scenarios from Shell, a leading scenario developer.
Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Barry Hughes, 2006
Modeling system for International Futures. Good in general, but not sufficiently technology-aware.
The State of the World 2007, Worldwatch Institute, 2007
Annual report on the state of the world from environment to human rights. Sustainability focused.
The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the State of the World, Bjorn Lomborg, 2001
A critical look at claims that our global environment is falling apart. Evidence for optimism.
Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny, Robert Wright, 2001
Makes the case that non-zero sum (positive sum) interactions drive much of human activity.

Week 6 – Global Problems and Priorities
Mapping the Global Future: The National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project, NIC, 2005
Great brief illustrated summary of future global scenarios, from the National Intelligence Council.
From Third World to First, The Singapore Story: 1965-2000, Lee Kuan Yew, 2000
How "authoritarian capitalism" enabled rapid economic development. A model for others?
Environment: An Introductory Textbook, 5th Edition, Peter Raven, 2005
College textbook on our natural environment, a complex system we still don't understand well.
Wilson's Ghost: Reducing Conflict and Catastrophe in 21C, McNamara & Blight, 2001
Brilliant book on the global context enabling the9/11 attacks, and future US policy options.
Human Development Report 2006: Beyond Scarcity, UNDP, 2006
Goals and progress in global development per the United Nations Development Program.
How to Spend $50 Billion to Make the World a Better Place, Bjorn Lomborg, 2006
Priorities for global development from Lomborg's "Copenhagen Consensus."
Worldchanging: A User’s Guide for the 21st Century, Alex Steffen, 2006
Tools and strategies for achieving a "bright, green future." Sustainability and innovation.
Shadow Cities: A Billion Squatters, A New Urban World, Robert Neuwirth, 2006
Issues and futures of the world's rapidly-growing slums, by a journalist who has lived in them.
The End of Poverty, Economic Possibilities for Our Time, Jeffrey Sachs, 2006
Proposes new levels of political, corporate, and individual participation in global development.
The White Man’s Burden: Why Western Aid Has Done So Little Good, Bill Easterly, 2007
Shows how we hurt the developing world in trying to aid them, and the difficulty of the problem.

Week 7 – Economics and the Future of Capitalism
Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, & Econ of Prosperity, William Baumol, 2007
Explains the four major types of capitalism. Only one, entrepreneurial capitalism, is ideal.
The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, Thomas Friedman, 1999
Great intro to accel. globalization and its new-world vs. old-world tensions. Written before 9/11.
One Nation, Underprivileged, Mark Robert Rank, 2005
Huge social costs of undereducating and underemploying American poor and immigrants.
China Shakes the World: The Challenge for America, James Kynge, 2006
Explores future impacts of Chinese economic, political, and social power on the world &the US.
Three Billion New Capitalists: Great Shift of Wealth & Power East, Clyde Prestowitz, 2006
Issues of integrating a growing, Networked Asia (China, India, SE Asia) into global economy.
Information Rules: A Guide to the Network Economy, Shapiro and Varian, 1998
Good overview of the economic, info, and social changes in the Network Society.
Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution, Hawken and Lovins, 2000
Eloquent call for a future of sustainable economics and green business: natural capitalism.
Banker to the Poor: Micro-Lending and World Poverty, Muhammad Yunus, 2003
By the Nobel-winning founder of Grameen Bank, pioneers of microcredit for the poor.
The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: End Poverty Thru Profits, C.K. Prahalad, 2006
Opportunities in Bottom of Pyramid (BoP) capitalism, from microcredit to microconsumption.
The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power, Joel Bakan, 2005
Considers weaknesses of the modern corporate structure and possibilities for reform.

Week 8 – Politics and the Future of Security and Democracy
Lies My Teacher Told Me: What Your History Textbook Got Wrong, James Loewen, 2007
Brilliant critique of the "feel good myths" we learn in history class, and ideas for change.
The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad, Fareed Zakaria, 2007
Explores the limits and weaknesses of democracy and the many ways it can become illiberal.
The American Anomaly: U.S. in Comparative Perspective, Raymond Smith, 2007
Explains why, constitutionally, the U.S. is less democratic than other leading industrial nations.
America (The Book) Teacher’s Ed: A Guide to Democracy Inaction, Jon Stewart, 2006
Hilarious intro to American history and political democracy, warts and all. Comedy Central.
Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich, Kevin Phillips, 2003
Why the rich are not conservatives (low government) but plutocrats (use govt to their advantage).
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Samuel Huntington, 1998
Analyzes the world as a set of eight cultures increasingly conflicting over religion and dogma.
Lucifer Principle: An Expedition into the Forces of History, Howard Bloom, 1997
Argues well that evil (lying, violence, etc.) plays an essential social and biological role.
A Force More Powerful: A Century of Nonviolent Conflict, Ackerman and Duvall, 2001
Chronicles the rising power of nonviolent mass resistance to remove or reform governments.
The Pentagon’s New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century, Thomas Barnett, 2005
Combating disconnectedness (tech, econ, & cultural) as a key U.S. global security strategy.
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Philip Tetlock, 2005
Great study of the repeating patterns, biases, and limits of political (and other) prediction.

Week 9 – Culture, Media and Education in a Network Society
The First Measured Century: Trends in America, 1900-2000, Theodore Caplow et. al., 2000
One hundred years of social and economic trends, with graphics and engaging commentary.
The Rise of the Image, the Fall of the Word, Mitchell Stephens, 1998
Charts the rise of moving images and decline of the printed word, and some implications.
Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, Robert Putnam, 2001
Great stats on the 50-year deterioration of U.S. social life, with some ideas for solutions.
The Future of Media: Resistance and Reform in the 21st Century, Robert McChesney, 2005
Great articles on massive media centralization and corporatization, and proposals for reform.
The Future of Ideas: The Nature of The Commons in a Connected World, Larry Lessig, 2002
How large corporations are stifling public innovation and privatizing our online information commons.
The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel, 1998
The politics of change, and conflicts over creativity, enterprise, and progress.
Cuture Jam: Reversing America’s Suicidal Consumer Binge, Calle Lasn, 2000.
The power and addictions of brands, conformity, and overconsumption in a global corporate age.
Declining By Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, Richard Hersh et. al., 2006
Documents the retreat from challenging and affordable higher ed as a 20th century "social contract."
Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge, Cass Sunstein, 2006
How free and open online information, aggregation, and markets are accelerating global knowledge.
The Fourth Turning: Cycles of History and America’s Destiny, Strauss and Howe, 1997
Historical generational (cycle) theory that the US is "on the verge of crisis." We shall see.

Week 10 – Biz-Org Leadership, Innovation, Learning, and Predicting
Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap... and Others Don't, Jim Collins, 2001
Careful research featuring 11 big companies that manage to greatly improve, year after year.
Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition, Everett Rogers, 2003
The classic text on innovation diffusion, how new ideas and tech spread into a culture, or don't.
The Innovator’s Dilemma, Clay Christensen, 2003
Why Big Co's slow down market (and their own) innovation, and how "disruptive innovation" works.
The Art of the Start: A Guide for Anyone Starting Anything, Guy Kawasaki, 2004
Great advice on planning, raising money, hiring, and other issues of starting any business project.
The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many are Smarter than the Few, James Surowiecki, 2005
How groups can beat their best individuals for cognition, coordination, and cooperation.
The Fifth Discipline: The Art of the Learning Organization, Peter Senge, 2006
How to build continual learning, "the only sustainable competitive advantage," into any org.
The Difference: How Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, & Societies, Scott Page, 2007
Why cognitive and experience diversity on your team beats groups of like-minded experts.
Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Kees van der Heijden, 2005
How to use the futures tool of scenario planning (possible futures) to improve business strategy.
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter Bernstein, 1998
Quant. probability has led to econometrics, insurance, forecasting, and better foresight.
Supercrunchers: How Anything Can Be Predicted, Ian Ayres, 2007
The growth of detailed data sets lets analysts make previously impossible predictions.

Week 11 – Biz-Org Planning, Consensus-Building, Benefiting, and Metrics
Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present, Bob Johansen, 2007
Practical ways for orgs to develop a "future sense" and improve their plans and strategy.
Out of Control: Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World, Kevin Kelly, 1995
How our connected and complex world can be understood as a biological, evolving system.
Inevitable Surprises: A Survival Guide for the 21st Century, Peter Schwartz, 2004
A leading futurist uses scenario planning to explore both the expected and unpredictable future.
Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything, Don Tapscott, 2006
The economic and social benefits of global online collaboration for people and companies.
Hard Facts, Half-Truths, & Total Nonsense: Evidence-Based Mgmt, Pfeffer & Sutton, 2006
How to analyze business management practices using surveys, science, and evidence.
Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change, Bob Seidensticker, 2006
Argues well against the idea that technology change is particularly fast or important today.
Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Tech Change, Steven Schnaars, 1989
Collection of bad forecasts by think tanks, researchers, and politicians, w/ recommendations.
Inviting Disaster: Lessons from the Edge of Technology, James Chiles, 2002
50 famous catastrophes, and ways that they could have been prevented with better systems.
Future Search: Finding Common Ground in Orgs & Communities, Marvin Weisbord, 2000
A future search conference helps organizational stakeholders work to chart a better future.
Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things, William McDonough, 2002
Using industrial design to greatly improve sustainability and "eco-effectiveness" in our world.

Week 12 – Personal and Career Creativity and Visioning
Natural Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Intelligence, Andy Clark, 2004
Why you are already a "cyborg" and will get even more intimately connected to all your tech.
The 21 Indispensable Qualities of a Leader, John Maxwell, 2007
Qualities and habits that make you the kind of person whose ideas others want to follow.
Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind: Intelligence Increases When You Think Less, Guy Claxton, 2000
Cog science says logic and reason aren't enough. We need slow, intuitive, nonlinear thinking too.
Authentic Happiness: Positive Psychology and Your Potential, Martin Seligman, 2002
From the founder of science of positive psychology (how to thrive, love, and be happy).
Finding Flow: Psych. of Engagement with Everyday Life, Mihalyi Csikszentmihalyi, 1998
Proven tips on creating flow: a psychological state of ease, focus, happiness, and productivity.
Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudosci. and Superstitions, Michael Shermer, 2002
Covers our modern superstitions. Shows the value of skepticism and evidence-based thinking.
When Prophecy Never Fails: Myth and Reality in a UFO Group, Diane Tumminia, 2005
Great expose of how wishful thinking causes us to deny reality. We all do this to some extent.
No Logo: No Space, No Choice, No Jobs, Naomi Klein, 2002
Brands increasingly dominate public life, narrow our choices and our thinking. Tips on resisting.
50 Facts That Should Change the World, Jessica Williams, 2004
Some fascinating stats, many addressable by technology. Which ones will we deal with?
Fifty-Two Simple Ways to Make a Difference, Paul Simon, 2004
Small things are really the big things, in the end. Some powerful ways to be a better person.

Week 13 – Personal and Career Learning and Predicting
Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance, K. Anders Ericsson, 2006
"Natural" talent is highly overrated. Experts are nearly always made, not born. Anyone can be one.
The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey, 2004
Each habit can take years to master, but becoming an expert in these is a key to personal power.
Our Inner Ape: A Leading Primatologist Explains Who We Are, Frans De Waal, 2006
Human nature is a blend of chimpanzee and bonobo, of competition and cooperation. Stay blended.
Social Intelligence: The New Science of Human Relationships, Daniel Goleman, 2007
How the choice, care, and feeding of our relationships determines our intelligence.
The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil, Philip Zimbardo, 2007
How situations, environments, can change our ethics. Why our environment matters.
The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out as They Do, Judith Rich Harris, 1998
Shows the huge effect of our peer groups on our success in life. Choose your friends wisely!
Hold on to Your Kids: Why Parents Need to Matter More than Peers, Neufeld and Mate, 2006
Peer attachment in 1st world cultures squelches individuality, creativity, intelligence. How to fix that.
Building a Bridge to the 18th Century: How the Past Helps the Future, Neil Postman, 2000
Bringing Enlightenment values (intellection, history, logic, rhetoric) back into the 21st century.
The Pathfinder: How to Choose or Change Your Career, Nicholas Lore, 1998
Through goalsetting, list making, and other techniques, find your ideal career and make it happen.
Do What You Are: Discover Your Career thru Personality Type, Paul &Barbara Tieger, 2001
Using personality profiling to find industries, careers, and occupations that match your strengths.

Week 14 – Personal and Career Planning and Negotiating
Everything's an Argument - With Readings, Andrea Lunsford et. al., 2006
An excellent and visual introduction to argument and rhetoric, foundational skills for all of us.
Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers, Richard Neustadt, 1986
How to best use historical knowledge to improve decision making. A classic.
How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Reason in Life, Thomas Gilovich, 1993
The limits of logic and psychology in understanding our complex, evolutionarily contingent world.
Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, John Hammond, 2002
Systematic approaches to making better-considered choices. Lots of great case examples.
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less, Barry Schwartz, 2005
Explains how overanalysis and abundance can rob us of flexibility and satisfaction.
How Full is Your Bucket: Positive Strategies for Work and Life, Rath and Clifton, 2007
Explores the foundation of social intelligence: creating positive social interactions.
Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In, Roger Fisher, 1991
Very readable text on achieving win-win negotiations in workplace and home.
Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most, Douglas Stone, 2000
When we put off the most important conversations, everyone suffers. How to fix that.
What You Can Change & What You Can’t: A Guide to Self Improvmt, Martin Seligman, 2007
Common psychological disorders and how to self-treat them. Practical personal psychology.
Never Eat Alone: Success, One Relationship at a Time, Keith Ferrazzi, 2005
The importance of defining who you are, trusting others, and networking for a clear objective.

Week 15 – Personal and Career Benefiting and Measuring
One Small Step Can Change Your Life: The Kaizen Way, Robert Maurer, 2004
How to face fears that block change, by making small, measurable steps in the right direction.
The Resilience Factor: 7 Keys to Inner Strength, Karen Reivich, 2003
A key empowering habit of mind. How to keep perspective, not overreact, and bounce back.
The Survivor Personality: How to Get Better at Handling Adversity, Al Siebert, 1996
Some crumble under pressure and others get stronger. How to get better at the latter option.
The Power of Full Engagement: A Personal Energy Management System, Tony Schwartz, 2004
Skill at energy management complements time, space, money, knowledge, and process mgmt.
Fooled by Randomness: The Role of Chance in Life and Markets, Nassim Taleb, 2005
Humans are pattern recognizers. We often see pattern where none exists. How to minimize that.
The Seven Stages of Money Maturity, George Kinder, 2000
Stages of psych development in relation to money. Which are you presently "in"? Brilliant book.
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, Benjamin Graham, 2003
The classic in value investing. A book for true investors, foresighted people with long-term plans.
Socially Responsible Investing: Making a Difference & Making Money, Amy Domini, 2000
How to put your money where your values are. Investing as a way to improve the world.
Journal to the Self: Twenty-Two Paths to Personal Growth, Kathleen Adams, 1990
Well-regarded book on personal journaling as a tool for self-understanding and personal mastery.
CrazyBusy: Strategies For Handling Your Fast-Paced Life, Edward Hallowell, 2006
How to manage culturally induced ADD, 24/7 accessibility, and modern expectations.

Other Nonfiction Great Futures Books (GFBs) and Book Sites
In Top, STEEPS3, Multidisciplinary, and Fiction Categories
Place them in alpha order under each category, please.

Top Futures Books and Book Sites
50 Facts That Should Change the World, Jessica Williams, 2004
Perhaps 35 of these 50 stats are offensive or angering to varying degrees. The stats and their associated commentary make you motivated to change them. The other third (things like plastic surgery rates) are offensive or not depending in your values and political persuasion. Many of these problems will very likely be greatly improved in coming decades. Thanks to Disinformation.com for this cool book!
A Brief History of the Future, Oona Strathern, 2007
A fast-reading, excellent overview of the history of foresight and prediction in human civilization, from the Oracles at Delphi 800 BCE to the modern foresight professional. As both a journalist and a successful female professional futurist working in a European futures agency, Oona has created a very well written book and brings a much-needed female and European perspective to the history and prospects of the foresight profession.
CIA World Factbook 2008, Central Intelligence Agency, 2007
Great source of country information. Also available online for free.
Science and Human Values, Jacob Bronowski, 1990
Science today is largely silent on human values, a subject it remains a long way from understanding. Religion, tradition, and ideology powerfully fill this void today, speaking to issues of great value and importance to each of us. Yet science is a profoundly humanizing enterprise, and has been central to the elevation of human culture. Bronowski helps us understand both left-brained logic and right-brained creativity, both subjective introspection and objective science as complementary habits of truth.
State of the Future 2006, State of the Future / "Millennium" Project (an Annual)
An annual book that analyzes and evaluates possible global prospects for humanity. It would likely be useful students wishing to find more sources for an essay or paper as well as for students who wish to learn more about future global scenarios, sciences and environmental scenarios. - Ryan J
The Post-American World, Fareed Zakaria, 2008
Great portrayal of "the rise of the rest." The most powerful global political and economic trends are not that America is slipping into ruin, but that it's finally many parts of the less developed world's turn to make the great strides we made earlier. The US is saddled with a 'do-nothing' political system, controlled by corporate interests that have been more economically powerful than governments since the 1950's, while the best of the rest of the world, China in particular, India to a lesser degree, and a number of other developing nations are seeing double digit economic growth, and will likely continue to for the next few decades, as they become innovators in the global economy. There is much we could do to improve our own state, but much that will continue to get better in spite of us as well. It's time to recognize the great power shift taking place, and recognize that for the most part, this is creating a stronger and far less American global economic network, though corporate globalization still is significantly less socially responsible and accountable than it must be in coming generations.

Science, Evolution, and Development Books and Book Sites
A Brief History of Time, Stephen Hawking, 1988
This popular science book explains a wide range of topics in cosmology and modern physics. Although it is mainly a book about the "present", it also discusses the future of the field of physics and how it might affect humanity as a whole.
Complexity: Life at the Edge of Chaos, Roger Lewin, 2000
Global Brain: Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century, Howard Bloom, 2001
Quantum: A Guide for the Perplexed, Jim Al-Khalili, 2004
Soul Made Flesh: The Discovery of the Brain and How it Changed the World, Carl Zimmer, 2005
How the theory of mind has slowly progressed from immaterial, residing in the heart, to material, residing in the embodied nervous system. A fantastic story, ranging from Aristotle to the present day. It centers around the work of 17th century anatomist and early scientist Thomas Willis.
The Elegant Universe: Superstrings and Hidden Dimensions, Brian Greene, 2000
The Holographic Universe, Michael Talbot, 1991
What if all the separate images we see virtually every moment of our waking lives were actually part of the same whole? What if every mind was connected and inseparable from every other mind? And what if the universe were a projection of our consciousness? Psychological synchronicities and previously inexplicable phenomena would be easier to understand, the findings of quantum physicists and mystics would begin to merge, and the world would be a less forbidding and lonely place. Michael Talbot argues for the idea that what we see in our limited three-dimensional view is actually a hologram created by interactions occurring in a broader set of dimensions (in the multiverse). Talbot bases much of his thesis on David Bohm's life work in quantum physics, but draws also on the work of psychiatrist Stanislav Grof and neuroscientist Karl Pribram (who believes that the human mind is a holographic construct of the brain). This fascinating book bridges the worlds of science and metaphysics and offers plausible hypotheses some of which may, in time, become accepted as fact.
The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century, David Salsburg, 2002
Great intro to the way statistics and probability math and models have led to great leaps in the search for scientific truth over the last hundred years. These mathematical methods are nothing less than humanities first great successful effort at building a "prediction science." Discovering and verifying probability distributions in complex systems is an excellent way to discover hidden order in the universe. The actuarial industry is just one of many that have been able to use these tools, approximate as they are, to very effectively manage the future in our partially chaotic world.

Technology and Information Books and Book Sites
Human Genetic Engineering: A Guide for Progressives, Pete Shanks, 2005
A nice intro to the many limits of biotech, and the social values that limit its adoption as well.
Massive Change and the Institute without Boundaries, Bruce Mau, 2004
Somewhat utopian but inspiring and very nicely illustrated manifesto on how better design can fundamentally improve our world.
Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, Hans Moravec, 1998
The Future of Technology, Tom Standage, Ed., 2005
Insightful but circumscribed survey of the 10-year future of consumer, info, nano, and biotech, from an insightful editor at The Economist.
The Spike: Impact of Rapidly Advancing Technologies, Damien Broderick, 2002
Visions of Technology: A Century of Debate about Machines, Richard Rhodes, 2000
What Will Be: How Information Will Change Our Lives, Michael Dertouzos, 1997
Why Things Bite Back: Unintended Consequences of Tech, Edward Tenner, 1997
How technology trades big life-threatening problems with slower-acting, more complex ones.
The Truth About Drug Companies: How They Deceive Us and What to Do About It, Marcia Angell, 2004
Brilliant expose of the largest 'nanotechnology' companies on the planet today, the pharmaceutical companies. Want to know how big they really are? In 2002, the total profits of the ten drug companies on the U.S. Fortune 500, $36 billion, was more than the profits for all the other 490 businesses on the list, combined ($34 billion). Read this book to understand how technology, in well defined applications (in this case, for human consumption for medical purposes) can be entirely captured, controlled, and stifled by big business. Fortunately the governments of some countries, particularly in Europe, are too strong to be captured by the drug companies. Unfortunately that hasn't been true here since the 1970's. The irony is that the biggest of these companies are based in Europe. But in 2002 they mad half ($200B) of their their total world revenues off the U.S. consumer, who is bombarded daily by drug-pushing ads in all the media, unlike in most European countries, where marketing regulations are far more protective of the unwashed consumer.

Environment, Energy, Resources, and Global Books and Book Sites
An Inconvenient Truth: The Crisis of Global Warming, Al Gore, 2006
Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming, Bjorn Lomborg, 2007
Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction, Mark Maslin, 2004
Quick and very brief intro to the complexities of global warming forecasts, and the political positions involved.
Limits To Growth, Meadows, Meadows and Randers, 1979
Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update, Meadows and Randers, 2004
Silent Spring (Special Edition), Rachel Carson, 1974/2002
The 2030 Spike: Countdown to Global Catastrophe, Colin Mason, 2003
The Bottomless Well: Why We Will Never Run out of Energy, Huber and Mills, 2006
The Long Emergency: Surviving the Catastrophes of the 21st Century, James Kunstler, 2006

Economics, Globalization, and Capitalism Books and Book Sites
The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, Niall Ferguson, 2008
Brilliant analysis that "follows the money" behind so many of the major events of Western civilization. Helps you understand the US's present debt-slavery to China, the Wall Street meltdown of 2008, and our loss of national manufacturing and technical productivity capacity. All these things are consequences of the rise of an unregulated corporate class that captured US government in the mid 20th century and created vast wealth for those at the top (for time) but far less for the country as a whole (and greater rich poor divide, unlike other developed nations). Until we use government to reprioritize the country to technical capacity increase rather than GDP increase, and rationalize the rich-poor divide, we can expect more of the same. Fortunately New Asia and Old Europe aren't following our sad script. (John Smart)
Capitalism 3.0: A Guide to Reclaiming the Commons, Peter Barnes, 2006
Development as Freedom, Amartya Sen, 2000
Globalization and its Discontents, Joseph Stiglitz, 2003
Miniatlas of Global Development, World Bank, 2004
Very small handbook of goals and progress in global development per the World Bank.
Prophet of Innovation: Joseph Schumpeter and Creative Destruction, Thomas K. McCraw, 2007
Schumpeter is perhaps our greatest economist to date in the area of innovation studies. He understands deeply why a healthy economy needs what he calls "creative destruction," or the ability of the large companies to regularly fail, be downsized, merge, or otherwise lose their primacy, and for the most innovative small and midsize companies to move up the ranks. This process seems messy but only economies that are healthy enough to allow a good degree of creative destruction will thrive in the long run. Many are not, as big business has both the economic means and a big economic incentive (it makes more money for the executives and the shareholders, in the short term) to eliminate competition, and slow down innovation, and change the rules in their favor, wherever possible.
The City in 2050: Creating Blueprints for Change, Urban Land Institute, 2008
ULI is the world's leading land development organization. A rare and fascinating, very long-range look at the changes facing metropolitan areas, illustrated with interesting facts and forward-looking charts on topics such as the impact of capital markets, climate change, sustainability, transportation and infrastructure needs, demographic trends, housing, retail, and technology.
The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy, Yergin and Stanislaw, 1999
Epic account of the 20th century battle between governmental control and the free marketplace.
The Long Boom: A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity, Peter Schwartz, 2001
A leading futurist gives his rationale for why it's reasonable to expect unrivaled economic expansion all over the planet over the next 20 years. This scenario seems reasonable for New Asia, but is quite optimistic for the US given trends in recent decades.
The Future of Money, Benjamin Cohen, 2006
Chronicles the steadily decreasing number of global currencies. Like languages, weaker national currencies have been progressively disappearing, either tying their monetary supplies to stronger currencies (dollar, euro, yen, etc.) as globalization advances, or "dollarizing" them (pegging their currency to one of these global currencies in fixed ratios). Cohen proposes this currency contraction trend may soon reverse, but I think he's wrong. He notes that the internet economy will enable many new corporate e-currencies, and that nations and ethnic groups will seek to maintain and expand their currencies for emotional and independence reasons. James Dorn of the Cato Institute has made a similar prediction in The Future of Money in the Information Age, 1997. If such predictions came true they would be an example of internet-aided global pluralism. I would like to believe them, except that when you want to make a new currency (if you are a corporation) or just keep your own (if you are a small country) you are competing against the global banking infrastructure and central banks of all the leading governments. It seems more likely that the 21st century money system has acquired a developmental path dependency. Effective money must be both a reliable store of value and a trusted medium of exchange. Any competing new form of money, though it can be easily created as a store of value by corporations (such as Linden Dollars in Second Life, Ithaca Hours in NY, or any corporate scrip) needs to develop widespread trust, and be able to police counterfeiters, before it becomes a broad medium of exchange. Will the world's leading banks and countries mismanage our existing currencies to such an extent that we no longer view them as the most reliable stores of value and mediums of exchange? Will they sit by as other competing online currencies emerge? Unlikely. It is true that countries from the US to Russia to China implicitly tax (take value from) their citizens every year through their national money supplies, by growing them at rates like 11% (US), 19% (China) and even 50% (Russia) a year in recent years, and always at a rate that exceeds the annual GDP growth of the country in question (in the examples above, US 3%, China 10%, Russia 6%). But how onerous to the citizens is this "money supply tax" in a world of accelerating productivity, automation, sci-tech development, and persistent deflation in the cost of all information-related global goods? Libertarians eloquently point out the undemocratic nature of this state of affairs, yet most of us allow this implicit tax as long as the global financial system doesn't melt down too badly, and our standard of living goes up more years than it goes down. Today we have more choices for what currencies and investments we keep our deposits in than ever before, but only a few keep our assets in the most fiscally responsible national currencies or inflation-proof commodities at any point in time. In a future where citizens are significantly more educated (first by their electronic networks and eventually, by their artificially intelligent digital assistants), and as banking, credit and microcredit become increasingly democratized, I believe we will see both more banking and currency choice, which will become important regulatory forces in a digitally democratic future. But if rapid economic growth continues, the continued centralization of currencies seems very likely, and democratic control over our global monetary and financial systems will remain underdeveloped for decades to come.- JS
The Future of Work: The New Order of Business, Tom Malone, 2004
Explores how networks are flattening, distributing, and virtualizing business, and implications.
The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and Economics, Eric Beinhocker, 2006
Masterful look at the economics ofchange and innovation, in the tradition of Joseph Schumpeter.
The World Economy: Historical Statistics, DCS, Angus Maddison, 2003
Thousand-year estimates on global economic growth, around the world. Amazing topsight on the accelerating engine of change, since 1850, that is capitalism. Angus Maddison isa rare expert in this topic.

Politics, Security, and Democracy Books and Book Sites
Deception: Pakistan, the US, and the Secret Trade in Nuclear Weapons, Levy and Scott-Clark, 2007
Dynamics of Nonviolent Action, Gene Sharp, 1985
Great book on nonviolent resistance campaigns. "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mohandas Ghandi. Sharp's book and US State Dept aid were used by Optor in their successful student-led voter rebellion against Yugoslavian dictator Slobodan Milosovec.
Free Lunch: How the Wealthiest Americans Enrich Themselves at Government Expense, David Kay Johnston, 2007
Excellent investigative journalism by a talented investigative reporter on the way the wealthiest leaders of industry use federal, state, and local governments to shift major costs and risks to the taxpayer. Documents the ways that competition is not a level playing field in the modern US democracy. How do we fix this problem? By caring about it, counting it, making it transparent, and then generating a consensus for action. It may take a generation or two before the average US citizen knows enough and cares enough about these issues to vote for a freer, fairer, and more competitive nation. If we had to continue to depend on human beings in our decaying educational institutions to educate the voters of tomorrow, the future of our democracy might be grim. But if our internet keeps getting smarter at an accelerating rate, there will come a time, probably within this next generation, where every one of us will have artificial intelligence advising us on our vote, and on how to spend our money, in ways that best reflect our values (the "Valucosm"). In that kind of superempowered world, democracy seems likely to swing back to serving the citizens more than it does today.
Human Security Brief 2006, Human Security Report Project, 2007
Independent tracking of interstate and intrastate conflict and organized violence against civilians. Documents the steadily decreasing incidence rates of global violence in the last decade, anomalous and well-publicized outliers like the global Salafi jihad and the second Iraq War notwithstanding. Develops the concept of "human security" (security of individuals) as a complementary goal to national security (security of the state).
Making a Killing: The Business of War, Center for Public Integrity (CPI), 2002
Two year, $600K 11 part investigation by the CPI's International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) into the business of war, arms trade, defense contracting, and other forms of monetized conflict. The ICIJ found that "a handful of individuals and companies with connections to governments, multinational corporations and, sometimes, criminal syndicates in the United States, Europe, Africa and the Middle East have profited from this war commerce – a growth industry whose bottom line never takes into account the lives it destroys."
Making Things Public: Atmospheres of Democracy, Bruno Latour, Peter Weibel, 2005
"An astonishing anthology of highbrow meditations on culture and politics by world-class writers and intellectuals such as Richard Powers, Peter Sloterdijk and Richard Rorty, complete with lavish art." MTP looks at politics as operating "in the realm of things." Many kinds of assemblies "gather a public around things -- scientific laboratories, supermarkets, churches," and politics also involves disputes around natural resources like rivers, landscapes, and air. Authors examine the "technologies, interfaces, platforms, networks, and mediations that allow things to be made public."
No Place for Amateurs: How Political Consultants are Reshaping American Democracy, Dennis Johnson, 2007
Details the massive growth in special interest lobbies in US politics in the last two generations. A ratio of 150 lobbyists to one politician, cushy jobs for politicians in these firms and on big business boards afterward and other examples of institutionalized corruption that are legal in our current environment pretty much ensures plutocratic politics. Essential reading.
Radical Middle: The Politics We Need Now, Mark Satin, 2004
The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post-Cold War, Robert Kaplan, 2001
Great book on how democracy comes slowly in the developing world, and how the best thing in many emerging nations may be to support "enlightened dictators" as long as they are engaged in economic liberalization and are publicly committed to slow but obvious political liberalization. Kaplan also notes that unless we deal now with the problems of the developing world, we will see new forms of global resistance, possibly worse than Al Qaeda.
The End of History and the Last Man, Francis Fukuyama, 2006
The Great Big Book of Tomorrow: A Treasury of Cartoons, Tom Tomorrow, 2003
The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, Benjamin Friedman, 2005
Analysis of the value of economic growth to creating a healthy democracy. Individuals and societies are more trusting, more inclusive, more open to change when they see their and their children's futures as both progressing and secure. During economic stagnation and downturns, democratic institutions suffer. Average full-time incomes for Americans have fallen 15% in real terms since 1975, and Friedman sees this as one key reason our democracy and communities have weakened over this period.
The One-Hour Activist: Fifteen Ways to Fight for Your Issues, Christopher Kush, 2004
Quick grassroots actions that persuade lawmakers to listen. There's no good reason to be passive in the networked society. Find others, make change.
What If’s? Of American History, Robert Crowley, 2004

Society 1 (Big): Culture, Media, Education and Religion Books and Book Sites
A Brief History of Everything, Ken Wilber, 2007
"A series of original views on many topics of current controversy, including gender wars, multiculturalism, modern liberation movements, and the conflict between various approaches to spirituality." Includes a valuable systems theory of human philosophy of thought (the Four Quadrants/Integral theory).
Affluenza: The All-Consuming Epidemic, John de Graaf, 2005
Great book on the cultural excesses of American society: consumption overload, debt, waste, anxiety, self-indulgence, and apathy for the non-self.
America's Perfect Storm: Three Forces Changing Our Nation's Future, Educational Testing Service, 2007
A forecast that in the US, several long term forces 1) declining and uncompetitive math and reading skills, 2) increasing need for literacy and higher education to compete in the information economy, 3) major demographic shifts (legal and illegal immigration), and 4) a widening rich-poor divide are all converging to create a "perfect storm" of greatly declining US educational effectiveness, greatly lower workforce competitiveness, and increasing class inequity in coming years. The report says that unless we change course America will have a highly stratified society in the next generation: a well-educated, well paid top tier, a small and shrinking middle class, and a large uncompetitive and marginally literate underclass.
Copyrights and Copywrongs: Rise of Intellectual Property and How it Threatens Creativity, Siva Vaidhyanathan, 2003
The history and evolution of copyright, how it came to be corporate controlled, and strategies and solutions for improving its public service.
Culture of Narcissism: American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations, Christopher Lasch, 1979/1991
Classic futurist work that addressed then-new and now-major trends in the failure of the family as an institution, state paternalism and the erosion of individual authority, the culture of celebrity, conformity, consumerism, self-indulgence, and apathy. Lasch's thesis is that narcissism and consumerism are a reaction to the fear of being nothing in a world of increasing complexity [and we might add, velocity of change]. Fortunately, though they may be the easiest reaction, other options are available. What are Nasch's solutions? A return to self-reliance, the family, cultivated friendships, nature, the community, and the work ethic.
Feed: A Modern Dystopia, MT Anderson, 2004
Kids as consumer robots talking Orwellian newspeak due to 24/7 corporate internet feeds. Chilling dystopian fiction that seems all too likelyfor some increasingly manipulated and disenfranchised segment of our future society, even as we recognize these feeds will be delivered not via some improbable "neurojack" but rather by our ubiquitous wearable and embedded computing devices.
Innovation and its Discontents: How our Broken Patent System Endangers Innovation, and What to Do About It, Adam Jaffee, 2004
Eloquent look at the problems of the current patent system, particularly the changes in U.S. patent law that began in 1984, in favor of large corporations, and what can be done to improve patent quality and accountability to the public, which grants them in the first place.
Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes, Mark Penn, 2007
An insightful look, in the tradition of Megatrends and The Tipping Point, at the many social stratification trends occurring in our modern freedom- and individuality-oriented culture, and the social shifts and business opportunities they represent.
Scanning the Future: 20 Important Thinkers on the World of Tomorrow, Yorick Blumenfeld, 1999
Interviews with eminent scientists, engineers, statesmen and others. Thoughts on how to build a better future for ourselves and the planet.
The Assault on Reason: The Challenge to American Democracy, Al Gore, 2007
How media monopolies and government opportunism have weakened democracy, and a number of ideas for change.
The Meme Machine: Imitation and Social Intelligence, Susan Blackmore, 2000
Agood start at exploring the idea that self-replicating ideas, which jump from brain to brain in our highly imitative human culture, are another level of evolutionary development on top of self-replicating genes, which jump from cell to cell to create life and its biological imperatives. Memes (good ideas that are worthy of imitation) have a "life of their own" in culture. Memeplexes like "the self" are really just one special collection of such ideas. Fascinating way to rethink who you are.
The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell, 2002
Treats ideas like epidemics. Discusses social roles (connectors, mavens, salesmen) and the dynamics of behavior change.
Virtual Charter Schools and Home Schooling, Carol Klein, 2006
Explores the virtual charter school, which allows the socialization of home schooled peers who are all educated under the same "charter," whatever that may be. Is a virtual class of 30 empathetic high-achievers adequate socialization? If so, will virtual charter micro-schools be increasingly realistic options for educating self-reliant and innovative youth inside a larger culture of narcissism and apathy?

Society 2 (Medium): Business and Organizations Books and Book Sites
Conquering Uncertainty: Understanding Corporate Cycles, Theodore Modis, 1998
Seeing What's Next: Using Innovation to Predict Industry Change, Clay Christensen, 2004
The Five Dysfunctions of a Team: A Leadership Fable, Patrick M. Lencioni, 2002
The Logic of Failure: Avoiding Error in Complex Situations, Dietrich Dorner, 1997
How our mental habits can set us up for error, and how to guard against it in management.

Society 3 (Small): Personal & Careers Books and Book Sites
Born to Buy: The Commercialized Child and the New Consumer Culture, Juliet B. Schor, 2005
Outlines the incredibly sophisticated and relentless marketing manipulation of kids, and the resulting passivity, commercialism, and alienation from authentic values and passions that emerges. Amazing stats like the average 10 year old has memorized about 400 brands (but still knows virtually none of the countries or cultures of the world), that R-rated movies are marketed to 9-year-olds, that the target readership of Seventeen magazine is now preteens. Ideas for ways parents (primarily), educators and govt (very secondarily), and advertisers (least likely) can lessen these problems.
Goals!, Brian Tracy, 2004
Twenty one proven strategies for clarifying your beliefs, values, Major Life Purpose, goals, and plans, and for taking action on them every day. Excellent personal futures book for anyone who needs help improving their goalsetting routines.
Feel the Fear and Do it Anyway, Susan Jeffers, 2006
Excellent practical techniques for overcoming fear, indecision, anger, and self-image problems to get to personal action and growth. Very often faulty thinking is at the root of our fear. We need to learn to "do first those most important things that scare us" and watch ourselves as we confront them. Courage can be learned, and this book is a great introduction to how to do that.
Happier: Learn the Secrets of Daily Joy and Lasting Fulfillment, Tal Ben-Shahar, 2007
Workbook for one of the most popular courses (positive psychology) at Harvard U. Dr. Ben-Shahar discusses the blend of reason and emotion, short and long-term orientation, here-and-now vs. big picture, path and destination thinking, that leads to happier, more meaningful, more productive lives.
How We Talk Can Change the Way We Work: 7 Lang. for Transform., Kegan & Lahey, 2002
You have as much control over the way you speak to others as you do over your attitude. Use it!
Insurance for Dummies, Jack Hungelmann, 2001
A good overview of how to manage risk by purchasing insurance, a key futures planning tool. The kind of people who purchase insurance and do investing have strong personal foresight. When we overcome our fears and get good with these topics, we become foresighted as well. The key with insurance is to understand, and learn how to minimize your real level of risk, and to purchase only the amount of insurance you really need. As your personal assets grow, you can self-insure more. Whether car, home, health, life, liability, event, or other insurance, this book is a good place to start.
Phantoms in the Brain: Probing the Mysteries of the Mind, V.S. Ramachandran, 1999
By looking at people with damaged brains, a neuroscientist looks at the way past experience, emotion, and our unconscious and conscious mind construct meaning about the world. Fascinating insights for gaining self-awareness and improving your mental "influence" over your own behaviors.
Rules for Radicals: A Pragmatic Primer, Saul Alinsky, 1989
Classic text on how to live with an activist's mindset. Change is always painful to people. Sometimes you need to be an irritant to others to get the social change that is needed. Alinsky gives lots of examples from history of effective "radicals."
Simple Living Guide, Janet Luhrs, 1997
Tips on thriving with less clutter, consumption, and expense in all facets of your life, by the editor of the Simple Living Journal.
Taking Responsibility: Self-Reliance and the Accountable Life, Nathaniel Branden, 1997.
A great book about how to accept responsibility for one's actions and manage one's own self-esteem, improving your self-awareness and ability to create and discover the kind of relationships, job, and life that you want. You don't have to agree with Branden's political beliefs to get value from this book. Branden is a libertarian (someone who's political philosophy is minimal government, and who would not advocate social assistance programs). Libertarians make up only a tiny fraction of political parties in all governments around the world. They are going against the dominant trend of increasing social assistance in the developed world. But while the state may provide increasing safety nets, the self-reliant individual has every right not to take advantage of them, but to make their own future.
The 21 Indispensable Qualities of a Leader, John Maxwell, 2007
Key traits like character, courage, focus, generosity, listening, passion, that inspire leadership.
The Four Agreements: A Practical Guide to Personal Freedom, Don Miguel Ruiz, 2001
Be impeccable with your words. Don't take anything personally. Don't make assumptions. Always do your best. Ruiz illuminates these four simple habits, and the tremendous personal empowerment that flows from them, if you do the hard work of internalizing them and living by them. This brief book gets New-Agey, preachy, and hyperbolic in its ancillary claims, but discerning readers can look beyond this to glean the essential wisdom within.
The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out the Way They Do, Judith Rich Harris, 1999
Excellent evidence and argument by the self-taught author of a college textbook on child development why parental upbringing has such a small effect on child development. Increasingly we find it is the nature of the peer group that is the primary influencer. Implications of this are not only the obvious, to get one's child into a "better school," but profound: if a child is raised around a special subset of high-standards peers (home-schooled, extracurricular, or otherwise) who have learned how to analyze both the best and the worst today's youth culture, they will take these insights to heart. Even when they rebel as young adults they will judge this rebellion by the standards of their peers, who can have levels of self-reliance and self-actualization unseen in the larger society. The more networked society becomes, the easier it is to find these islands of peer-group excellence and to influence the larger culture by the example of one's own life and the upbringing of one's children, which is perhaps the most powerful and certainly the most personal way of changing the world, in the end.
The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need, Andrew Tobias, 2005
Good basic investment advice, including a great deal be-conscious-of-your-expenses and heres-how-to-spend-less common sense.
The Overspent American: Why We Want What We Don't Need, Juliet B. Schor, 1999
Portrait of the "getting and spending" culture that pushes so many of us into debt and unsatisfying consumption, and a profile of "downshifters" who find a way out. Nice thesis on the way television watching is causally correlated with overspending, particularly among youth, who are being the most aggressively manipulated these days.
The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less, Barry Schwartz, 2005
Data and insights on the massive increase in choice and the corresponding cognitive load on today's consumers, and the lack of adequate external filters and internal inhibitions to keep us from getting stressed and unhappy in the midst of all that plenty.
The Resiliency Advantage: Master Change, Bounce Back from Setbacks, Al Siebert, 2005
Great followup book by the author of The Survivor Personality. Explains how to recognize and admire resiliency traits in others and how to build them in yourself.
The Road to Excellence: The Acquisition of Expert Performance, K. Anders Ericsson, 1996
Ericsson's original work on the ease of acquiring expertise via disciplined practice, in spite of one's inherited talent or upbringing. His Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance, 2006, is his followup work, and one of our great futures books.
Waking Up in Time: Inner Peace in Times of Accelerating Change, Peter Russell, 2007
Tips for finding peace, doing good, and living well in our modern ever-accelerating world.
Wherever You Go, There You Are: Mindfulness Meditation in Everyday Life, Jon Kabat-Zinn, 2005
Great advice and habits for being mindful, stress-minimized, and conscious in a world that tries to take away your self-awareness at every turn.
Why Good Things Happen to Good People, Stephen Post, 2007
Research on the mental and physical health benefits of doing good and helping others. Affirms the adage: "Want to be happy? Make others happy."
Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes: Behavioral Econ., Belsky & Gilovich, 2000
Why do otherwise rational people act so foolishly in relation to money? Insights from the emerging science of behavioral economics.

Multidisciplinary Futures Books and Book Sites

Realistic Future Fiction (RFF) Books and Book Sites
[Realistic future fiction has major parts which feel like they actually could happen in the future, under the right circumstances. Almost all fantasy stories and most science fiction stories really don't count as realistic--there are exceptions however, and if you think that some particular aspect of a fantasy or SF book feels realistic, include it here and explain why. Realistic future fiction is a subgenre of general or science fiction that feels realistic (it could actually happen) most of the way through, to most readers. Well-written and highly realistic realistic future fiction is rare, as you can imagine.]

Realistic Singularity Fiction (RSF).
By far the most obvious monumental sci-tech advance looming ahead of us is the arrival of greater than human intelligence, likely within this 21st century. Judith Berman, in "Science Fiction Without the Future," 2001, noted that writing about the coming AI is so difficult (emotionally and intellectually) that most sci-fi writers, and their readers in collusion, have simply abandoned reading or thinking about realistic science fiction, turning to comfortable fantasy instead (e.g., Star Trek and other such impossible but comforting 'space operas'). Nevertheless, there are a handful of efforts that attempt to realistically describe the likely coming emergence of AI, and the implications of an AI world on human beings, in at least a partially plausibile way. We call such fiction RSF. Here are a few favorites:

The Two Faces of Tomorrow, James Hogan, Yukinobu Hoshino, 2006
Note that this is the (most recommended) graphic novel version. For the book, which has even more interesting detail, but is getting outdated and has a poorer ending, see The Two Faces of Tomorrow, James P. Hogan, 1980. TFT is a fictional account of one of the great questions of 21C tech: How do we trust the coming AI? Hogan's answer is that the world's leading governments decide to put the first near-sentient AI on space station, with a troop of Marines guarding it (and provoking it to see if it will be 'bad') and installing a secret safeguard nuke that can be used to blow the whole thing to hell in case things somehow go south. Someone needs to make a film out of this. I hope it's optioned. I consider it one of the best sci fi stories that has yet to be made into a film. Unfortunately, I think that by the time we have robots advanced enough to build these kinds of space stations, AI will arrive on earth long before we could afford to build them. So the timing of some of these advances are off, but it's a great story nonetheless.

Society of the Mind, Eric L. Harry, 1997
A long (672 pages) but quick-reading 'cyberthriller' about a company whose robots rapidly get smarter and smarter, until the singularity is reached. Lots of fun and predictable human plot, but the rapidly improving tech is reasonably well presented as well. Major points off for the "reclusive billionaire genius" pathway to real AI, a very unlikely scenario in a world where today's AI is incrementally and very globally constructed, in a very 'soft takeoff' fashion. But a very engaging, populist read. Don't want to read? Get the unabridged audiobook for your next long drive.

Jame5: A Tale of Good and Evil, Stefan Pernar, 2008
If you are willing to believe a 'hard takeoff' AI could occur, in this case, sudden emergence of greater than human intelligence via 'full scale molecular simulation' of a human, with 'all or nothing' results, Jame5 is slick, fun, and engaging tale of how that might occur. I think that advanced embodied AI will have to take a highly global and incremental path, involving ubiquitous robots and avatars (digital twins and digital secretaries) who are bred, like dogs and cats, for domestic trustability, even though the robots and avatars brains are in truth evolved black boxes, just like our dogs and cats brains are today. That pathway is at least paid lip service in The Two Faces of Tomorrow and Society of the Mind, so if that's your persuasion you might enjoy those more, and Jame5 would have to take a hit for lack of realism in this respect. But with that caveat, Jame5 is a fun, fast read, with interesting, provocative thoughts on philosophy of mind and complexity.

Other Realistic Future Fiction
(Student-Submitted, Alpha Order by Title).

Brave New World, Aldous Huxley, 1932.
This dystopian novel describes a hedonistic world where family, culture,and art are destroyed. Even though people are basically happy and healthy, everyone has lost their identity and individual control over their fate. It's a good thought-provoking book because many of the things in the book (or at least parallels) already exist in today's reality. It's somewhat frightening because it suggests that eventually we might be genetically engineered to live certain lives and to do certain jobs, made to be artificially and superficially happy by what we are assigned to do.

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? is a great book by Philip K. Dick that, I believe, is very possible in the fututre. Most people know this book by the movie that was made of it, directed by Ridley Scott, Blade Runner. I believe that there will be a time, when robots will be possible, and then they will also have to be kept in check. This link is to the Amazon site where the book is.

Dust, Charles R. Pellegrino, 1999
This book pulls information from the past (cataclysmic events - dinosaurs extinction, the Ice Age) to make an inference to what could happen in the future. The author is saying that it's high time another even like those happens based on the pattern of the past. It's geared more towards an environmentalist futurist in that one animal's extinction completely threw off the balance of the entire world and launched it into chaos. Very freaky book that could possibly happen. - Katie Lindner

Ender's Game is an amazing story about a young boy who is chosen to be trained to fight for Earth. An alien race call buggers is threatening the existence of man, and Ender is chosen to go to a battle school in space. This book is fairly realistic and has some cool technologies. The story is amazing, and has the biggest surprise in any book I have ever read. - Brandon Jacobs

Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury, 1953
This dystopian novel is set in a time when critical thought is suppresed and firemen burn books and the houses that contain them as opposed to actually stopping fires. It tells the story of one fireman who one day decides to get into some of the books that he is supposed to burn, trying to fill an empty void in his meaningless life. Even today, the book effectively analyzes the growing trend of escapism in our society and the effects of the mindless, mass media entertainment that we increasingly get exposed to every day. Out of the several classical dystopias of its time, it is likely the most relevant today, especially because it deals with a future caused by society itself, not the government.

Foundation, Isaac Asimov, first published as a book in 1951.
If I didn't tell you this book was almost 60 years old, you might never guess. Asimov is eerily prescient in many passages. This novel (and the series that it evolved into) is based on the idea that a man has come up with a way to predict the future on a galactic scale; the model doesn't work for small groups, but only billions or trillions of people. If you enjoy science fiction in even the slightest bit, you will enjoy this book. - Bill Nega

Net Force Series,Tom Clancy and Steve R. Pieczenik, 1999
This series involves policing a new type of crime, cyber-crimes. The crimes themselves are not too futuristic, but the way the net is accessed is pretty inovative. It involves sitting in a chair and plugging in (Matrix-esque) but it can be customized however you choose, So looking for a particular piece of information could be done on the net as if you were a pirate with a treasure map. It is a very interesting series and can give a glimpse at the future of the internet and crimes associated with it. - Eric Kaplan

The Animatrix
Another great source on how robots will evolve. One of the short movies in it deals with robots, how they were made, and then when they got out of hand.

The Dragonriders of Pern series -
This series of books, started in 1968, has many realistic ideas to it but it's not until later in the series that it truly comes closer to becoming science fiction than fantasy. **Spoiler warning** After getting past the dragons and the feudal style towns in the series, the reader will come to learn that the people on Pern are descendants from a colony from Earth. The ships in this future do not have FTL (faster than light) travel so any colonies sent out a great distance are generally a one way trip. The one way nature means that ships are designed to be broken down into colony structures. Other realistic ideas in this series include genetic modification, loss of memory of home planet (after generations and generations of struggling to survive on a harsh planet), and loss of technology due to natural causes.**End Spoiler**

The Handmaid's Tale, Margaret Atwood, 1998
A thoughtful dystopia built on one big assumption: an outbreak of human sterility, and two big and at least plausible consequences: a global fundamentalist backlash, and a nuclear war. Children of Men, 2006 is very similar.

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams 1979
An excellent science fiction tale that predicts many currently existing technologies, even though they are the invention of other societies in the book, and takes a satirical look at our own psychology. Strangely it even predicts a few social trends long before they crop up in society and truly gives a new meaning to the term trilogy.

The Left Behind Series, Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins, 1996-2004
I haven't actually read this series, but I know it deals with a post-armageddon world, from a biblical standpoint, and those humans that were left behind in it. It could prove to be a very interesting read, even if you're not religious. - Katie Lindner

The Roads Must Roll, Robert A. Heinlein., First published in 1940 in Astounding Science Fiction (collections of short stories).
This short story is a remarkably perceptive tale about how transportation becomes increasingly important to how society functions, and although we have not yet gotten to the type of transportation used in the story it is a very intersting idea and quite possible to sometime in the future be how we get around. It's a incredibly interesting and exciting story as well as proposing interesting possibilites for the future.

The Stand, Stephen King, 1978
This book carries out a story of a virus that kills most of mankind. An extreme military research problems goes wrong and widespread death follows and this book projects a possible scenario if this were to happen.

The Two Faces of Tomorrow (Graphic Novel), James P. Hogan, 2006
Set in a near future where humans have to face the consequences of living on the same planet with large computers that are beginning to "think" and control their own world (including robots that repair them). Will the first truly self-aware computer be friend or foe? To find out, the U.S. puts the world's most advanced computer on a space station (with a nuclear destruct safeguard) to see if it remains "friendly" and is willing to follow orders even after it "wakes up." A great story that hasn't yet been made into a blockbuster sci-fi movie. I could see a prequel and a sequel to it. Hopefully soon!

Books and Book Sites of Uncertain Classification
Put below any books and book sites you recommend but can't easily classify above...

The Garden in the Machine --Claus Emmeche
I didn't see a section for non-fiction so I'm posting this here. This book explores the premise of artificial life, or alife. It can be a bit overcomplicated at times but it is a great read if you're interested in alife. - Brant Hestrup

On Intelligence -- Jeff Hawkins
Written by the inventor of the Palm Pilot "On Intelligence" explores artificial intelligence and what it will take for us to better implement it. It is written much better for the average reader than "The Garden in the Machine" and is an interesting read for anyone who is interested in how the brain works and artificial intelligence. - Brant Hestrup

The 2030 Spike: Countdown to Global Catastrophe
This was an interesting book to research about because unlike a lot of future books we are shown, this book is one of those "doom" volumes. It tells a tale of the end of times and 100 things we can do to change and prevent a new "dark age". It might have the impact it wants, or it might flop like so many others. Time will tell if he is right or not. -Alan Cacciamani

I Am A Strange Loop - Douglas Hofstadter

Very interesting book, grapplingempiricallywith the nature of consciousness. From Wikipedia:I Am a Strange Loopis a 2007 book byDouglas Hofstadter, examining in depth the concept of astrange looporiginally developed in his 1979 bookGödel, Escher, Bach. Hofstadter had previously expressed disappointment with howGödel, Escher, Bachwas received. In the preface to the twentieth-anniversary edition, Hofstadter laments that his book has been misperceived as a hodge-podge of neat things with no central theme. He states: "GEB is a very personal attempt to say how it is that animate beings can come out of inanimate matter. What is a self, and how can a self come out of stuff that is as selfless as a stone or a puddle?"[1]He sought to remedy this problem inI Am a Strange Loop, by focusing on and expounding upon the central message ofGödel, Escher, Bach. He seeks to demonstrate how the properties ofself-referentialsystems, demonstrated most famously inGödel's Incompleteness Theorem, can be used to describe the unique properties ofminds.[2][3]- Max Marmer

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Great book that turns conventional wisdom on its head. Brilliantly discusses randomness, complexity,unpredictabilityandubiquitoushuman fallacies. From Wikipedia:Nassim Nicholas Talebrefers to the book variously as an essay or a narrative with one single idea:"our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations".[2]It isTaleb'squestioning of why this occurs and his explanations of it that drive the book forward.The book's layout follows "a simple logic"[3]moving from literary subjects in the beginning to scientific and mathematical subjects in the later portions. Part 1 and the beginning of Part 2 delve intoPsychology.Talebaddresses science and business in the latter half of Part 2 and Part 3. Part 4 contains advice on how to approach the world in the face of uncertainty and still enjoy life.Talebhimself, acknowledges a contradiction in the book. He uses an exact metaphor,Black Swan Ideato argue against the "unknown, the abstract, and imprecise uncertain--white ravens, pink elephants, or evaporating denizens of a remote planet orbiting Tau Ceti. - Max Marmer

All material on this wiki is open source, creative commons licensed. Feel free to use any portion of this with appropriate attribution to "University of Advancing Technology, Foresight Development curriculum."

Degree Programs

JohnMSmart — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 21:00:44 CDT

Great Futures Degree Programs
In Top, STEEPS3, and Multidisciplinary Categories
Place them in alpha order under each category, please.

Graduate degree programs (MS, PhD, etc.) in futures-related fields.

Top Futures Degree Programs

Futures Studies - Global Programs and Resources
A global list of primary and secondary futures studies programs, compiled by the Acceleration Studies Foundation.

Science, Evolution, and Development Degree Programs

Technology and Information Degree Programs

George Mason University: Bioinformatics

Environment, Energy, Resources, and Global Degree Programs

Global College of Long Island University. Graduates must spend three of the four years traveling around the world, mostly alone, out in the field, learning over and over again, in culture after culture, the basic problems of humanity. They also need to understand the growing array of existing and possible solutions.

Economics, Globalization, and Capitalism Degree Programs

Politics, Security, and Democracy Degree Programs

George Mason University: Biodefense -"knowledge of potential pathogenic agents used in biological warfare with medical defense to such agents"
George Mason University: Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Society 1 (Big): Culture, Media, Education and Religion Degree Programs

Society 2 (Medium): Business and Organizations Degree Programs

Society 3 (Small): Personal & Careers Degree Programs

George Mason University: Gerontology

Multidisciplinary Degree Programs

_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Degree Programs of Uncertain Classification
Put below any degree programs you recommend but can't easily classify above...

Home

JohnMSmart — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 17:26:10 CST

This course wiki is for public resource sharing for students (current and alums), faculty, and fans of Foresight Development, a core course (TCH110) in foresight studies and personal futuring taught at the University of Advancing Technology (UAT, http://www.uat.edu). UAT is a distinguished four-year university in Phoenix, AZ whose mission is educating innovators of the future.

There are four main sections in this wiki. See navbar at left, or click below to start:

Curricula (public versions of our course materials)
Resources (all foresight resource sharing pages)
Career (mentor, internship and career futuring pages)
Teachbacks (for sharing your foresight work for others)

See also our Personal Futures Wiki, which you will use in the last ten weeks of this course for doing career, relationship and life foresight work.

NOTE: This wiki is on the Open Social Web. Be courteous, and don't post anything you wouldn't want accessible to everyone.

Permissions:
1. Anyone on the web can view this wiki. Send the link to your friends!
2. Anyone with a Wetpaint account can add comments at the bottom of any page (resource sharing, discussions, etc.).
3. Only those who have been sent an invitation* (students, faculty, and interested others) can edit these pages (login and click "EasyEdit" at top of any page).

Students: Joining this wiki is not a requirement of our course (you can turn in your resources by email if you wish) but it is recommended for those who wish to participate in open online community. Regardless, everyone has to at least come to the website to view what we are creating together. I recommend you use your real name in your Wetpaint profile, but you can use your initials if you wish more privacy, or a pseudonym if you really have to (as long as you tell me what it is). Your email address can be kept private or made publicly viewable in your Wetpaint profile (this is a preference setting you control). Feel free to use an anonymous secondary email account (get one at Gmail or Yahoo) if you want an anonymous email address for the open social web. Also feel free to upload an optional picture (yourself or some other cool pic) here and share a few sentences of (public) personal background. See the Navigation pane on the left for the current wiki pages. Welcome to the wiki!

Be Bold! This is your space to add resources, resource commentary, post questions, and have discussions, so don't be shy. You can visit this wiki anytime, and you'll be directed here four times over the course for "wikiraid" community resource-building assignments.

Wikirules: Please include your name (full name or first name plus last initial) at the end of any wiki contribution you make, with a dash in front (Example: - Joe Student). All wiki posts may be edited for grammar, style, clarity and brevity by any of us. The entire wiki is heavily edited at the end of each semester. Only the best contributions survive the end-of-semester cut. Make sure several have your name on them so you leave a legacy to the course!

Thanks for sharing your best futures resource discoveries and ideas here, and have fun!

*Educators, Researchers, and Advocates of Foresight Education:

If you would like editing privileges here, email course director (John Smart, johnsmart(at)accelerating.org), introduce yourself and what resources you'd like to contribute. We are always glad to have more folks helping students think broadly, deeply, and critically about the future.
If you interested in adapting a version of this course for your own institution, we'd love to help you. Course slides (15 weeks) are available to qualified instructors on request.
Join the Foresight Education & Research Network (FERN), a group of 150+ individuals teaching or researching foresight education around the world. Help us spread quality foresight education globally!

Preface

JohnMSmart — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 17:02:43 CST

This class is about foresight development (FD), which is a blend of two things: 1) futures studies (FS), or what people think may happen in the future of various disciplines and the methods they use to look ahead, and 2) foresight practices (FP), or activities to improve your own great ability to create, discover, and manage the future. We focus on FS in the first half, and on FS and FP in the second half of this course.

Like history and current affairs, we believe that foresight development—better and worse examples of personal, organizational, societal, global and universal foresight thinking and action—should be part of the general educational curriculum for all undergraduates. Only the most forward-thinking universities around the planet, probably less than 100 at present, presently offer foresight development or futures studies courses to their undergrads. As you might expect, UAT is one of those leading the way.

We start with an intro to the history and field of futures studies, then look briefly at “big picture” processes occurring in our universe and on our planet, through the lenses of science, technology, and systems thinking. We explore how these processes are affecting individuals, organizations, society, governments, and the environment, and consider both the inevitable “forces” and creative “choices” that seem to be involved. We'll also examine how organizations make bets on the future, and help you think about career prospects in a variety of fields.

The last part looks at your personal foresight potential. We'll consider how biology, psychology, culture and community help and hinder your personal thinking about the future, and ways you can use your unique strengths, skills, networks, and knowledge to shape your future success, however you choose define it—and there are more ways today than ever before.

TCH110 uses a number of models to help you think holistically about the future. Here are three you should know about:

I. In terms of systems, we will consider five systems levels (“UGSOP” Systems Model) in relation to foresight development, starting with the Big Picture, universal topics, and ending with the choices and forces in our personal lives.

1. Universal systems (science, systems theory, and spirituality)
2. Global systems (technology, environment, and global problems)
3. Societal systems (socio-economic, socio-political, and socio-cultural)
4. Organizational systems (entrepreneurship, management, cooperation, activism, family)
5. Personal systems (aesthetics, self-development, tools, health, wealth, other social impact)

II. In terms of issues, we will consider six general subject areas (“STEEPS” Categories Model) in relation to foresight development:

1. Science issues (general science, general systems theory, cognition science and systems theory)
2. Technology issues (computing, engineering, automation, virtualization, transparency, biotech)
3. Environment issues (resources, commodities, energy, biodiversity, pollution, catastrophes)
4. Economics issues (entrepreneurship, capitalism, globalization, aid and development)
5. Political issues (democracy, sustainability, rights, migration, governance, law, defense, crime)
6. Social issues (social activism, education, media, subcultures, demographics, aesthetics, health)

III. In terms of foresight skills, we’ll use the classic 3P’s Skills Model, and practice seeing and analyzing “Possible, Probable, and Preferable” Futures. This model was first developed by Roy Amara, President and CEO (1970-1990) of one of the first futures think tanks, the Institute for the Future, founded in 1968. Another name for this, based on the actions involved, is the CDM Skills Model, as it is about:

1. Creating/Envisioning a range of Possible futures
2. Discovering/Predicting the most Probable futures
3. Managing/Measuring toward Preferable futures.

Each of these models has its strengths and disadvantages and assumptions and biases that need to be analyzed, but as a group they form a good foundation for further development of your futuring abilities, in this course and in life. The boundaries and buckets for all classification systems are always squishy and approximate. Nevertheless, using models helps one to consider a broader range of important factors in our complex world, and how they may interact to create change.

Fellow students, I’m looking forward to working with and learning from you in this class!

Resources

JohnMSmart — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:51:41 CST

Post your best general foresight resources here.
Post your career resources in the Career section of this wiki.

Our current foresight Resources pages are:

Books
Periodicals
Articles and Databases
Websites and e-News
Statistics
Quotes
Questions
Images
Videos
Games
Audios
Organizations
Conferences
Degree Programs
Other Resources
Glossary

Please don't post any resource on this page, but on the appropriate subpage listed above.

Student Essays

JohnMSmart — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:34:48 CST

Post any student essays you are willing to share to the appropriate subpage:

A. Unit 1 Essays (Big Picture)
B. Unit 2 Essays (Global & Societal)
C. Unit 3 Essays (Business & Organizational)
D. Unit 4 Essays (Personal & Career)

Please don't post anything on this wiki page.

Teachbacks

JohnMSmart — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:33:45 CST

Have something you'd like to share with future students of Foresight Development, and with the world at large?
This is a place to post any of your writing from the course that you think others might benefit from.

Teachback pages are:

Student Essays
Personal Futures Portfolios
Other Student Teachbacks (Unclassified)

Please don't post any info to this page, but put it on the appropriate subpage, thanks!

Career

JohnMSmart — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:30:16 CST

General career resources should be posted on the appropriate page below:

Getting Started	Resources for starting out in career planning
Networking	Resources for professional networking in your industry/industries of interest.
Projects and Portfolios	Independent projects and UAT portfolios that will distinguish you from the crowd.
Finding Mentors	Great folks who advise you on your education and help you get experience/jobs.
Getting Internships	Landing an internship (summer, online, p-t, f-t) that advances your career.
Interviewing and Resumes	How to build a resume and do a killer interview (for internship, job, etc.)

Resources by UAT Majors for career planning should be posted on the appropriate majors page:

Artificial Life Programming
Computer Forensics
Digital Animation
Digital Art & Design
Digital Video
Game Art & Animation
Game Design
Game Programming
Network Engineering
Network Security
Robotics & Embedded Systems
Software Engineering
Technology Management
Web Architecture

On each majors page you will find the following four sections:

A. Company Leads for This Major (Names, Profiles, Site Visits, Mentors, Internship Info, etc.)
Which of these companies are local to Tempe? What are their internship schedules?
B. Networking Opps for this Major (Trade Assoc'ns, Conferences, Social Networks, etc.)
What do Student Memberships cost? Which conferences can you attend for free as a volunteer?
C. Project Expertise (UAT Portfolios, Independent Projects, Project Groups, etc.)
What are UAT portfolios and independent projects in this area? What local and online project groups exist?
D. Other Major Resources Info
Put any other career planning major resources info here (UAT requirements, general advice, etc.)

Please post your resources under the appropriate section of General Career Resources or Resources by UAT Major, and not on this page, thanks.

Weekly Films

JohnMSmart — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 16:23:12 CST

Futures Movie Nights
Wednesdays, 6:00pm-8:30pm, in the Theatre @ UAT
Limited refreshments provided (first come, first served!).

Assignments:
Students must watch at least seven of these fifteen films over the semester, and attendance is taken. In-class discussion, using the discussion questions below, is the only homework associated with these films. We will throw out some "tough questions" for discussion, in the 30-45 minute discussion immediately following each film. Your participation in discussions is part of your class participation evaluation, so please, speak your mind. Any questions we should have asked? Any rewording of these questions? Let us know and they will get better for future classes!

Week 1
The Future We Will Create: Inside the World of TED, 2007
Discussion Questions:

Not yet uploaded.

Week 2
Future Living 2025, Discovery Channel, 2007
Discussion Questions:

Not yet uploaded.

Week 3
2057: The Body, The City, The World (3 Episodes), Discovery Channel
Discussion Questions:

Not yet uploaded.

Week 4
Beyond Human, Thomas Lucas, Episode 2: Living Machines, PBS, 2001
Discussion Questions:

Not yet uploaded.

Week 5
Commanding Heights, Episode 1: The Battle of Ideas, Daniel Yergin, 2002
Discussion Questions:

Is a free market “necessary but not sufficient” for a functioning democracy, as Friedrich Von Hayek and his colleagues contend? If so or if not, why? In what ways may our global market economies of the 2000's and beyond be “less free” than our market economies of the early 1900's? Does this mean we have poorer democracies today than we had in the early 1900's?
If our largest corporations continue to become even more global and economically powerful than governments in coming decades, what are the upsides and downsides of living in a low-regulation free market economy?
“The Battle of Ideas” notes that control of the “commanding heights” (leading industries) of the world’s largest economies went from a corporate-owned, free market model in 1900, to a high point of government ownership and control (state socialism) in 1950’s, to a more free market model again by 2000. Do you expect another big swing back to either more government ownership or more governmental regulation in leading industries in coming generations (a pendulum model), or do you think the battle for the commanding heights is basically over, a battle the corporations have permanently won? If so, will today’s markets get more free and less regulated in coming years?
The webpage http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/lo/discuss/picks.html gives several Editors Picks for most interesting discussion items from the Commanding Heights bulletin boards. Do you find yourself agreeing with any of these posts in particular? Disagreeing? Pick one and tell us what you agree and disagree with (if anything). Did any of these posts make you think differently about what you saw in the film? If so, how?

Week 6
Commanding Heights, Episode 3: The New Rules of the Game, Daniel Yergin, 2002
Discussion Questions:

What did you think of the claim that globalization / free market reforms have lifted 300 million Chinese out of poverty since the 1980's? If true, what kind of good will and interedependency might that create?
Did you agree with the characterization that it isn't the role of protest movements, like the anti-WTO protesters, to provide solutions, but rather to "stake out an extreme position in the debate," which in turn gives those insiders sympathetic to the protesters some "negotiation room" to push for more moderate reforms?
Do you think the "Asian Contagion" of the late 1990's could happen again? Is the sudden loss of confidence in a country's economy, and the massive capital flight that can ensue in a very short time, a good thing, to keep any nation from mismanaging their economies, or is it a new source of potential catastrophe for the citizens of the developing world (the way we saw in Indonesia in the late 1990's)?

Week 7
World in the Balance: The Population Paradox , NOVA, 2004
Discussion Questions:

If Japan shrinks to half its current population by the end of the century, with 1/3 of those being senior citizens, as current trends forecast, will this be a problem for Japan, or a good thing for the global environment? Could advanced AI and robotics help solve this problem for Japan, and keep their social security solvent, or is that a dangerous fantasy? If you were a Japanese long-term planner today, how would you approach these questions?
If Africa's population swells to three times the size of Europe by 2050 (it was 1/3 the size of Europe in 1950) as the film claims, what new problems might this introduce in Africa and for the world? Are there any benefits to such a rapid population growth, and if so, to who? Are there any effective ways to induce Africans to choose a lower population growth in the next 50 years? How important is this problem on the list of global priorities?
How will we prevent rapidly rising standards of living and mass consumption in China, India, and the rest of the developed world from creating environmental catastrophes, economic catastrophes due to resource shortages, and new military conflicts motivated by resource acquistion contests?

Week 8
Why We Fight, Eugene Jarecki, 2006
Discussion Questions:

What do you think of the claim that this is the first time the US has "elected a defense contractor as Vice President"? Should Cheney have been made to step down once Operation Iraqi Freedom got under way?Was this a conflict of interest?
What did you think of the claims regarding the size of US Defense Spending (defense expenditures greater than all other discretionary US spending combined, US defense spending greater than all NATO partners combined)? Do these seem accurate? Do they seem appropriate?
What did you think of the level of congressional oversight and debate over the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq?
What did you think of the quality and objectivity of media coverage of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq?
Did the US invade Iraq in Operation Iraqi Freedom under false pretenses? Were there WMDs? Was war motivated by good foreign policy? By commercial interests? Some combination of both?
Do you think the present state of the US Military Industrial Complex (MIC) has risen to a position of "undue influence" over our democracy, as Eisenhower warned against in 1960? Of the four components of the MIC identified in the film: (Military, Industry, Government, and Think Tanks) how would you rank them in terms of influence on US foreign policy? Is there anything you would change, if you could, about the current US MIC?

Week 9
The Corporation (Special Edition), Mark Achbar, 2004
Discussion Questions:

How can we get to triple-bottom line accounting (economic, environmental, and social impacts) for our largest corporations?
What should the media's role be in creating "social accountability" of corporations? How can the mediahelp us generate ratings of corporations on their social and environmental responsibility?
What role can government play in improving corporate sustainabilty? Should environmental pollution rights become tradable commodities?
Should the government require large corporations to report "equity statistics," such as the percentage of offshore workers salaries represented in the retail price of products sold, the multiplier between the highest paid and the lowest paid employee, and the percentage of workers (temp, contract) that don't receive benefits?
Are incentives for greater stock ownership by citizens one way to make corporations more broadly accountable? How effectively can citizens reform corporations through such avenues as stock ownership, the government, the legal system, the media, and direct action (boycotts, consumer ratings, etc.)?
What did you think of the film's treatment of the issue of patenting living organisms? Was it sensationalistic? Isn't a patent just a public trust given under temporary conditions, to spur innovation? Can't wechange the conditions (duration, review, challenge, etc.) in the patent law if certain classes of patents are being misused?

Week 10
Orwell Rolls in His Grave, Robert Kane Pappas, 2004
Discussion Questions:

As US mass media become more centralized, corporate, and subject only to market share ("the numbers") for their performance, media no longer serves its traditional "Fourth Estate" duties to portray the diversity of political and other opinion, to investigate abuses of power, to educate the citizenry, to highlight civic responsibility, and to otherwise protect the public interest. The media and the nation inevitably become more "right wing" in such societies, as the channels of communication are controlled by those with commerce, deregulation, and wealth as primary values. Raymond Smith (The American Anomaly, 2007) notes the values of US citizens have shifted in recent decades to become the most politically conservative of all the developed democracies. To what extent are these changes problems for our nation going forward, and how can we best address them? What kinds of laws would you like to see in media reform?
Should we go back to 1980's caps on the number of news outlets that can be owned by one corporation in any one location or market? Is it OK to have a "media duopoly" in such important markets as New York?
Should we reinstate the Fairness Doctrine of the 1980's, mandating fair and balanced coverage by the major news media and providing consequences for consistently ignoring the positions of large public constituencies?
Should media outlets have the right to decide which paid ads they want to air or not, as they presently routinely do, or should they be denied the ability to deny coverage to opposing views that want to pay for airtime?
Should there be some mandated minimum unpaid coverage of politicians issues and campaigns by the television news media, or should they be allowed to keep doing major cutting of their political news coverage as they have for the last three presidential elections, so that the only way politicians can get heard is to buy ads?
Should corporations have free speech rights, or is this concept "perverse" as Mark Crispin Miller argues? Should such rights apply only to persons?
Should falsifying news reports (as we allegedly saw in The Corporation, with the rGH story on Fox News) be a crime which allows a reporter to receive whistleblower status and legal protection?
Do citizens have a first amendment right to "a diversity of antagonistic views" in their media? Is there a difference between theantagonism we see between pundits from the right and left on debate shows (Crossfire, etc.) in big media and the antagonism we see in town hall meetings, academia, NGOs, and other sectors of the public?
Should we have laws to ensure that political voting always has a paper trail, and should we be spending more money and effort on independent assessment (exit polls, etc.) of our state and federal elections? Should a citizen's voting be easily made a matter of public record (transparent) at the polls, if that citizen wants it to be public?
Cable television was hailed by many in the 1970's as a coming educational and democracy boon, something that would give consumers "hundreds (400-500) of channels of diverse, educational programming." The 80-120 channels the US public ended up getting were highly content-controlled and so expensive to operate that almost all ended up being advertiser driven. Only paid premium content and a handful of public stations were ad free. Will the internet suffer the same fate, as some of the protagonists in this film propose may happen?
Going forward, how do we best protect "Net Neutrality," and keep the internet from becoming as bottled up and centralized as all previous mass media (newspapers, radio, broadcast TV, cable and satellite TV) that have gone before it?
Has making significant changes, such as we have discussed above, in the "system of capitalism" become off limits in the corporate-owned media of the United States, in the same way that the "system of communism" was off limits for discussion in the party-owned media of the U.S.S.R.? If so, how do we best build momentum for change?

Week 11
No End In Sight: Iraq's Descent into Chaos, Charles Ferguson, 2007
Discussion Questions:

Is this a partisan film, or do you agree with its central claim that it's simply a film that seeks to ask mid-level managers how the war has been managed during the US occupation of Iraq from 2003 to 2007? It doesn't discuss why we got into the war, but rather focuses on its management. To what extent is it's discussion of the management of the war honest and objective, from your perspective?
Military victory, occupation, and reconstruction are challenges for which superior short-term thinking (day to day management) and long-term thinking (nation-building, security) are necessary. The film makes the case that major failures in both short-term management and long-term foresight have occurred in the US occupation. Can you think of any reasons why the Bush administration in particular has been vulnerable to failures on the short-term/management side of post-war conduct in Iraq? Can you think of any separate and perhaps independent reasons why the Bush administration has been vulnerable to failures on the long-term/planning/nation-building side of post-war conduct in Iraq?
Could we have done a better job anticipating or preventing post-invasion looting and destruction? Does America have a responsibility to reimburse the Iraqi's for the destruction of their extensive museums and the burning of their national libraries, with manuscripts and antiquities dating from the birth of human civilization (7,000 years)? If not, is an apology in order?
The film observes that disbanding the Iraqi military, suddenly putting out of work 500,000 soldiers (equivalent to 8 million Americans), individuals with training in the use of arms and munitions, was perhaps the single greatest mistake the US has made in our occupation. Would you agree or disagree? This decision was made by the US White House against the advice of the US military, the US intelligence community, and the US ORHA, and with no consultation of any of these groups. It was a major contributor to the 50% unemployment in Iraq and (in the film's analysis) was the single greatest catalyst of the insurgency. Should the US instead have immediately recalled and kept the original size of the Iraqi military during the occupation? Could it have worked with a corrupt military and slowly made it less corrupt? Is there any precedent in previous occupations for disbanding an entire military?
Alternative History Question: Saddam Hussein released 100,000 criminals, many of them violent, from his prisons in the final days of the war. We knew this very early in our occupation. What if US forces had offered substantial rewards for the identification of released violent prisoners early on in our occupation, during the "Honeymoon Period" in the early months of 2003, when US forces were held in high esteem by Iraqi civilians? Would the Iraqi populace and police have helped us in rejailing some of these individuals? How significant might such a policy have been at reducing the subsequent insurgency, and could it have allowed some of the most violent people (at the time) to be taken off the streets?
Alternative History Question: What if we had given the Iraqis very low cost cellphones early in the occupation? Wouldn't their increased communications have improved their social fabric? Why do we see so few billboards in Iraqi cities, communicating the policies and needs of the government to the populace, and designed for civic education and order? How hard is it to create a billboard communication network? Why didn't all Iraqi's at least get radios, and the ability to talk about their country, sports, culture, on a network of low power radio stations?
If the insurgency and chaos had not been allowed to grow as rapidly as it did in Iraq, would the rise of fundamentalist Sunni and Shiite militias have been curbed? Would Iraq have remained secular, as it was under Saddam Hussein? Is Samantha Powers correct in her assertion that the religious fundamentalist groups armed themselves and became responsible for security in their communities only because the US occupying forces have persistently failed to provide that security themselves and through the Iraqi interim government? Would the civil war between Sunnis and Shiites, and between factions within these groups, have been curbed if the Iraqi military had kept a large presence from the beginning of the US occupation?
The US occupying force had very few soldiers who could speak Arabic, and very few who understood Iraqi culture. Should the US military and intelligence community extensively hire Arabic speakers from the Arab and international communities into key positions in the post-war security and reconstruction efforts? Should there be incentives in the US military and intelligence community for learning Arabic and Iraqi culture?
Does the extensive use of private, for-profit, non-Iraqi contractors in post-war Iraq increase the short-term and short-sighted nature of the reconstruction? How can this be countered?
Did the 3 month rotations of CPA personnel increase the short-term and short-sighted nature of the reconstruction? How can this be countered?
Did the appointment of just-graduated US college students to key reconstruction jobs in the US CPA increase the short-sighted nature of the reconstruction? How can this be countered?
Do we need a tri-state (Kurd, Sunni, Shiite) or even more-state (Sunni and Shiite factions) solution in Iraq and Baghdad today? Would the provision of semi-autonomous states for the more fundamentalist factions of Sunni and Shiite movements allow them to channel more energy into state-building than into fighting each other and resisting the occupation?
Over three million of Iraq's 25 million, many of the country's "best and brightest," have fled out of Iraq in recent years. These industrious, talented, and foresighted folks have left because the security situation has become untenable. Is this massive "brain drain" our responsibility as occupiers, and what can we do to counter its devastating effect on those who are left behind?
If you were the National Security Advisor to the US President, what would you advise him or her to do with respect to Iraq, the UN, and the global political community over the next four years (2008-2012)? Can you sum this up in a one page "Executive Summary"?

Week 12
Declining By Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, John Merrow, PBS, 2005
Discussion Questions:

Not yet uploaded.

Week 13
Who Killed the Electric Car?, Chris Paine, 2006
Discussion Questions:

Not yet uploaded.

Week 14
Maxed Out: The Movie You Can't Afford to Miss, James Scurlock, 2007
Discussion Questions:

Not yet uploaded.

Week 15
Bringing Down a Dictator, Steve York, 2002
Discussion Questions:

Not yet uploaded.

Curricula

JohnMSmart — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 15:45:52 CST

Current public Course Materials:

Teaching Template
Preface
Syllabus
Lectures
Weekly Films
Discussions
Wikiraids
Essays
Exams
PFP/Final

If you are a Futures Studies educator, a futurist, a student, or fan of futures education, feel free to add your comments at the bottom of any of these pages telling us how to improve this course. Foresight Development runs every semester and is a core (required) course, so your feedback will have significant impact. Help us give every student the opportunity to think and act like an innovator of the future!

Thanks!

Lectures

JohnMSmart — Mon, 16 Feb 2009 15:20:53 CST

The following are the units and weekly themes for our course lectures.

Students: Presentation slides for these lectures are posted to the course shell.
Educators: If you interested in adapting a version of this course for your own institution, we'd love to help you.
Course slides (15 weeks) are available to qualified instructors on request. Email course director John Smart (john smart{at}accelerating.org). Join the Foresight Education & Research Network (FERN), a group of 150+ individuals teaching or researching foresight education around the world.

Unit I. The Big Picture (Weeks 1-4)
Intro to and history of futures studies, theories of universal change, and the unique nature of our time—scientific and technological progress that runs faster every year of our lives.
Week 1 – Intro to Futures Studies
Week 2 – Evolution, Development, and the Future of Science
Week 3 – Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part I
Week 4 – Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part II

Unit II. Global and Societal Foresight (Weeks 5-9)
Forces and choices affecting our planet and our socio-economic, socio-political, and socio-cultural environments.
Week 5 – Global Trends, Scenarios, and Models
Week 6 – Global Problems and Priorities
Week 7 – Economics and the Future of Capitalism
Week 9 – Politics and the Future of Security and Democracy
Week 9 – Culture, Media and Education in a Network Society

Unit III. Business and Organizational Foresight (Weeks 10-11)
Forces and choices shaping the business and organizational world, the many social definitions of success, and practical success strategies.
Week 10 – Biz-Org Leadership, Innovation, Learning, and Predicting
Week 11 – Biz-Org Planning, Consensus-Building, Benefiting, and Metrics

Unit IV. Personal and Career Foresight (Weeks 12-15)
Using foresight in your personal life and future careers. Finding your own strengths, passions, vision, and voice, and navigating an increasingly option-rich future, "present trends extended" (PTE).
Week 12 – Personal and Career Creativity and Visioning
Week 13 – Personal and Career Learning and Predicting
Week 14 – Personal and Career Planning and Negotiating
Week 15 – Personal and Career Benefiting and Measuring

Great Futures Books (GFBs)
150 Great Futures Books (10 per week x 15 weeks) are introduced, passed around, and briefly discussed in this course.

Great Futures Videos (GFVs)
Roughly 15 videos (1 per week x 15 weeks) will be viewed and discussed on ourFutures Movie Night during the course, and selections from additional videos may be viewed in class as time is available.

All material on this wiki is open source, creative commons licensed. Feel free to use any portion of this with appropriate attribution to "University of Advancing Technology, Foresight Development curriculum."

Websites & e-News

JohnMSmart — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 20:30:33 CST

Great Futures Websites and e-News
In Top, STEEPS3, Multidisciplinary,and Fiction Categories
Place them in alpha order under each category, please.

Top Futures Websites and e-News

World Clock
Counters on global population, death, illness, energy, crime, food, environment, and more. Great for getting "Topsight" about our complex and increasingly quantified/simulated world. Check it out!

News at Seven
An early version of EPIC (Evolving Personalized Information Construct) personalized news. Launched Oct 2007. "News at Seven gives you the news you want, the way you want it. Each day, News at Seven automatically generates a virtual newscast pulled from stories, images, videos and blogs all linked by a common news topic. News at Seven presents news, point/counterpoint, opinion, celebrity gossip and the occasional foray into the world of 3D gaming."

Science, Evolution, and Development Websites and e-News

Ray Kurzweil's site may go under technology and information but i think its more fitting that it goes under evolution, Prof Smart has mentioned this site several times, and i was surprised to not see it already listed here so i will go ahead and pop it in The Singularity is approaching . - Brooke Beresford

This is a great science journal site my friend just introduced me to, it contains all of the scientific journal publications in one nice little collection for your reading pleasure.
Phsyorg

Arstechinca
Great articles on new technologies and news event. http://arstechnica.com/index.ars

This website is from the director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. He writes a lot about ethics of human advancement and predicting the future of humanity.
http://www.nickbostrom.com/ [Eric Kaplan]

Back to the Moon
This is news from NASA on how they are planning their next space mission to go. I watched a special about this on discovery channel and it was amazing. It will give you insight on to a future of possibly living on the moon! [Kristopher Velez]

Future Science
This is a news website for a non-profit organization that discusses future science. It shows a lot of foreshadowing as well as things uncovered from the past. [Kristopher Velez]

http://www.washington.edu/alumni/columns/june98/2088.html- What follows is not a comprehensive look at the year 2088, but a mosaic of projections, guesses and fables gathered by UW writers and complied by Columns Editor Tom Griffin.

http://www.wfs.org/ - This link is an actual futurist website that deals with the future of fashion, economics, technology and just about anything else futurist.

Eric Fisher
The Reason i would like to post this is because it has great information on future changed that have to do with Medicine and how it will effect our world with tommorrows Vaccines, Drugs, and treatments. It gives a good amount of information on this topic and it seems to give a lot of information on these topics in the health side of the future outlook and whats to come. http://www.genetichealth.com/G101_Genetics_and_the_Future_of_Medicine.shtml

Another site that caught my eye that some of you guys and gals out there would like is future of computers and how they will become more powerfull and be able to handle more processes and things at once then todays computers. http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/eggcarton.htm

Another great Topic on the future would have to be how our food will change in the future and wher we get it from. Who's going to supply it and grow it? How it will be growed like what fertilizer and other things science is making our food do and whats in it? http://archives.cnn.com/2000/FOOD/news/01/01/food.2000/

News at Seven
A site that generates a daily, user-defined topically-customized news snippets, delivered by digital avatar. Moves RSSfeed-type info streams into a more polished, traditional format. - Pajamas

Technology and Information Websites and e-News

Brandon Jacobs
QJ.net is a great place to get up to date information on all of you favorite tech stuff. There are sub sites devoted to specific interests like photography, Nintendo DS, Xbox 360, pc gaming, and Apple. The site has many different writers that have joined over time, so the info is extremely up to date and usually valuable.

Bernard Clary
Ars Technica. This is a website dedicated to posting new information from the worlds of tech, gaming, business,
and law. The blogs on this site are well written and informative and give insight into new and upcoming technology as
well as how they affect other fields.

Bernard Clary
Tech Crunch. This is another tech related website along the lines of ars technica. The posts aren't as long as those
from ars technica but they provide great information in short summary forms for the readers.

Entomopter Project
The Entomopter Project is a micro-UAV being developed by Robert C. Michelson and his research team from the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI), University of Cambridge in England, and ETS Labs. The Entomopter utilizes biologically-inspired design to provide a new testbed for future low-to-no gravity data acquisition. Of particular interest is the Entomopter's fuel efficiency. [Chris Schoerning]

Speckled Computing is a project being worked on by several universities in the United Kingdom that is attempting to create a working model of a distributed computing network comprised entirely of tiny little specks that include nothign but a power source, a basic processor, and a method of transmission/receiving data. This ultraminiatruized computing model is something that I think could change the world in the future. \Bill Nega\

[Brant Hestrup]
Quantum Computing --
This is a link to the Wikipedia page for Quantum Computing. Quantum Computing is likely to be the next major step in the evolution of computers and technology.

Space Future- A website about the public and space. Space is the next thing to colonize and this site proposes ideas to take the next step.

http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/robot.htm This websites helps explain how robots work in more detail then most people know. If robots are on the rise, it might be a good idea to understand them more

Eric Fisher
Hey it's me again well this time i found something interesting on how our cities will look in the future and see what kind of changes will take place and make cites a safter, better and funner places to live. It shows alot of interesting things that could change possibly for the better.http://www.future-cities-lab.net/

http://www.benwiens.com/energy3.html (Websites) This page talks all about the energy that we might or are using to replace oil at some point in our lives. I think its a good page because it goes through a lot about what can be good about the sources of energy and bad. - Ryan Rizzo

http://www.trak-air.com/ (other)
This page is about this trak-air product that lets you cook many foods that before you would need oil or grease but instead u dont need any. I like this page because I thought it was a pretty cool product and I have never seen it before and thought it would be something cool to look at and see how it really works on the inside and how they could use this and make it better - Ryan Rizzo

http://greenoptions.com/2007/02/26/the_future_of_garbage
This page talks about how they are trying to reduce the landfill amounts and try and saving space. this machine takes garbage/trash and turns it into energy. I thought this was cool because this could help us a lot on the o-zone and saving the land - Ryan Rizzo

AskWiki
A search engine that uses natural language processing to pull answers from wikipedia. - Pajamas

http://inventors.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ&sdn=inventors&cdn=money&tm=
18&f=00&su=p554.2.150.ip_&tt=3&bt=0&bts=0&zu=http%3A//www.eere.energy.gov/
A good place to learn about new energy sources and what we're doing with them! - ezerhauden

http://inventors.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ&sdn=inventors&cdn=money&tm=170&f=00&su=p554.2.150.ip_
&tt=3&bt=0&bts=0&zu=http%3A//researchweb.watson.ibm.com/quantuminfo/teleportation/
A short paper about quantum teleportation with some extra links. - ezerhauden

http://www.technologyreview.com/
A great resource that examines the positives and negatives of emerging technologies.
A powerful resource that can fuel (pardon the pun) discussion in our classroom. - Steven Janca

http://www.jrmooneyham.com/2com.html
This is an interesting website because it talks about a birth control pill and then goes off to talk about the concept of a death control pill. It is kind of a long read but its worth skimming through at the least. To me this page was extremely interesting, because it deals with an topic that i think everyone can relate to. - Brad Stein

Space Future
This is another awesome link that takes you to a website that deals with space habitat, and you can also look through possible vehicles, tourism, and sources of power. I like this page because it talks about something that all humans have been interested in, space travel and living. - Brad Stein

http://www.foresight.org/
Take a look at this website if you are interested in nanotechnology, it has a lot of articles on it and has a good resources page. I thought that this page was very interesting and is an excellent page to check out if you are interested in researching nanotech. - Steve Janca

Brain Fingerprinting/P300 wave- A developing method of interrogation examining how a persons brain waves respond to stimuli. Rather than asking questions, the person is shown several pictures (or other forms of stimuli). If the person's brain "recognizes" the picture, it is detected and recorded. This can be used to determine if a criminal has a memory of seeing the inside of a bank vault, for instance. - Pajamas

http://futurewire.blogspot.com/
"An examination of futurism/futurology, emerging trends, disruptive innovations... and all their unintended consequences." -A blog that examines all the new and hot topic emerging technologies that are happening in the world today and tomorrow. The good, the bad, the unforeseen. All you need to know about whats coming up cited from several different sources. A good resource for our class as a quick "pick me up" of futurist knowledge. - Steve Janca

Environment, Energy, Resources, and Global Websites and e-News

Global Voices Online
A non-profit organization of global bloggers, video bloggers, and citizen journalists speaking out about social justice and humanitarian issues. Many voices from developing nations, that are never heard on Western corporate media, can be found here. Their stories are amazing and compelling. GVO is funded by Harvard University's Berkman Center for Internet and Society, an academic center trying to make cyber law and the internet a global force for advancing democracy and improving society.

Economics, Globalization, and Capitalism Websites and e-News

Something for the econoheads
http://www.mises.org/story/1804 This is a very long article, the site seems like a good place to explore for those interested in current events, etc. This specific address leads to an article that talks about trends in the economy, and where that may lead. I didn't read the whole thing, but what I did seemed interesting enougt to post, so here it is. (stephen271)

Financial Forcasting
A long article on ways to predict how a stock will act in the future. This article attempts to inform the reader on how to pick a profitable stock in the future. [Kristopher Velez]

http://research.microsoft.com/displayArticle.aspx?id=160
This page talks about the new idea of money...money you might say... Yes money, taking all of what we have worked on and making it into one simple thing. I thought this page was cool because it talks about how our money life style will change. - Ryan Rizzo

Politics, Security, and Democracy Websites and e-News

This is another article, but the site may be useful for future searches.
http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/864/What_future_for_government_.html
It goes over the trends of society, economy, and government, and states some interesting opinions of the governments existence in the future, I was caught in it, enough to read through at least half the article, which is where the future talk starts. That is why I am posting this.(stephen271)

NY Senator pushes for cameras on cop handguns
Something I explicitly remember from one of the lectures, seems a prediction might be about to be fulfilled! - Tom Andrys

Society 1 (Big): Culture, Media, Education and Religion Websites and e-News

Education, 21st Century Style
This is an older article that predicts the uses of online classes and other technologies in the classroom. The reason I am posting it is because if you read the whole thing you can see how much teaching has evolved since then. They predict many things that happened and still might. Online classes, etc. It is worth reading to really understand how far we have come in education. -Alan Cacciamani-

I think this has to do with Media, and society, its the future of Gaming. Its from PBS, so you know its true, ha. Anyways, I (stephen271 don't want to lose credit for this) think it had some good general info about the future of gaming, general, not advanced, but worth checking out.
http://www.pbs.org/kcts/videogamerevolution/impact/future.html

15 Failed Predictions of the End of the World During 2006
Great examples of "extreme prediction" from the good folks at ReligousTolerance.org.

Society 2 (Medium): Business and Organizations Websites and e-News

Actics
A first step towards the values revolution. Actics is a site where users list which values are important to them (environmentalism, compassion, etc) and then rate companies on how well they comply - Tom Andrys

iKarma
Another websites devoted to the reputation of businesses. - Tom Andrys

Rapleaf
Email-based reputation lookup. -Tom Andrys

Society 3 (Small): Personal & Careers Websites and e-News
Twine is a new program that collects information that passes through a person, then analyses it. Could be a great start to having digital personas. - Tom Andrys

openID is a website for managing your online identity - Tom Andrys
Multidisciplinary Websites and e-News

Realistic Fiction Websites and e-News
[Realistic fiction has major parts which feel like they actually could happen in the future, under the right circumstances. Most fantasy and a lot of science fiction really doesn't count as realistic--there are exceptions however, and if you think that some particular aspect of a fantasy or SF quotation feels realistic, include it here and explain why. Future fiction is a subgenre of general or science fiction that feels realistic most of the way through, to many readers. Good future fiction is quite hard to write, as you can imagine.]
List Fiction Websites Below in Alpha Order by Title

Websites and e-News of Uncertain Classification
Put below any websites and e-News (blogs, RSS feeds, electronic newsletters, etc.) you recommend but can't easily classify above...
_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Articles & Databases

JohnMSmart — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 00:31:35 CST

Great Futures Articles and Databases
In Top, STEEPS3, Multidisciplinary, and Fiction Categories
Place them in alpha order under each category, please.

Top Futures Articles and Databases

Essential Principles of Career Development. In: Economics: A World of Opportunity, Larry Smith.
1. Have passion for your work.
5. See yourself ahead as far as you can (up to 50 years!).
Please go read the rest...

http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/index.html
The homepage of the peer-reviewed Journal of Future Studies. The site has many articles that are free to view and most articles would likely help any student looking for scholarly sources for an essay. The article topics vary from future global economics and politics to predictions about countries and regions.

Science, Evolution, and Development Articles and Databases

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2007/oct/06/genetics.climatechange
This was an article that my math teacher suggested would be interesting. It actually was, and its only one page long. The headling was "I am Creating Artificial Life" In the article it talks about a guy who has stripped down a becteria cell into near nothing-ness, then used it as a case to create a "synthetic chromosome." It also talks about how this discorvery could very well be the one that can lead to the eventual gene manipulation of humans, somewhat. Additionally how this discovery could lead to the creation of a bacteria that could consume carbon dioxide gas, thus reducing, or eliminating the threat of global warming, and even propane, and other fuel emitting bacteria that would only need sugar to produce such goods. This is definitely something you should read, and like I said, its not that long of an article. (stephen271)

Democritus -- Scientific Wizard Of The 5th Century BC
Speculations in Science and Technology, 21(1), 37-44, 1998. This essay considers how Democritus, in the 5th century BC, without much help from mathematics or technology, could discover that the world was built up from atoms, that the Sun was a common star, that the Milky Way was made up of unresolved stars, that mass and energy are conserved, etc. The answer: scientific reasoning. It is concluded that the empirical/conceptual approach can be a highly effective complement to the theoretical/mathematical approach in science. What if Democritus’ ideas and methods had caught on immediately, instead of being virtually ignored for 2,000 years? [Rarity and value of a culture of scientific inquiry]. - Robert Oldershaw

Bilbliography on Genetic Programming
http://liinwww.ira.uka.de/bibliography/Ai/genetic.programming.html
This is a database of a few thousand genetic programming papers. Genetic programming is an evolutionary programming technique which has been under some scrutiny due to the resources it had required to function, however, the advances in computational technology has allowed for genetic programming to produce novel results. This belongs to the futures section because one of the beautiful things about the artificial life methodology is that it can produce results which we had not previously recognized or perceived as real. Therefore, evolutionary programming has the potential to produce some of our future technologies by adding to the "menu that our brain defines as real." -Chris Schoerning

Technology and Information Articles and Databases

Is Technology Ruining Children?, J. Cornwell, Apr 2008.
Excellent article reporting neuroscientist Susan Greenfield's perspective that today's virtual technologies are taking away youth's abilities to think abstractly, to imagine, and to develop personal initiative, curiosity, and moral awareness. See also Ronald T. Floyd's article, Are We Losing the Ability to Think Abstractly? in Journal of Advancing Technology, Summer 2008. A call to awareness of the many ways our culture is being degraded by "first generation" uses of the incredibly compelling virtual environments in which we are all increasingly embedded.

Robots Vs Pirates Apparently, piracy (real piracy, not the BitTorrented variety) is all the rage off the coast of Somalia. The pirates that hijack ships and hold them and their equipment for ransom, sometimes killing crewmembers in the process. It isn't pretty. But the US Navy and Coast Guard have a trick up their sleeves: robotic boats. The 30 foot boat names Protector is fullyautonomous and comes with a huge mounted machine gun, go Navy - MustanshioMcHatman

Philips creates windows that make their own shade - An ordinary window to dull for you? Well with Philips new Daylight Concept "Active Glass," It allows you to interact with the window simply by waving your hand. Whether your creating plant life to block out the sun, or change the "tint" color. it is something that shows the potential for very interesting window shopping - MustashioMcHatman

Scientists Develop Artery Scurrying Micro Robot - The boffins at Chonnam National University have created a microscopic robot to be used in medical procedures to clear blocked arteries, the sugars in the patient's blood provide an alternative energy source. -MustashioMcHatman

Windbelt - Third World Power Generator. After being inspired by watching Washington's Tacoma Narrows Bridge (Galloping Gertlie) collasp due to high winds. ShawnFrayne believes that he has found a cheaper, more effiecient solution for wind power generators.-MustashioMcHatman

Solar Impulse - From Swiss Inventors, This Solar powered plane hopes to fly around the world, even at 40 mph, in 4 weeks. With a wing span of a Airbus. Its biggest challenge is storing energy to use at night. -MustanshioMcHatman

SILVIA - SILVIA is a complete system for the development and deployment of intelligent applications to almost any computing platform or operating system, with a technological core that allows humans to interact with computers in completely natural and intuitive ways. "You can actually carry on a conversation with Silvia...it is truly amazing. The responses from Silivia are intelligent and contextual, not just one or two words, but complete sentences. Could be used for call centers, smart phones, voice search, or many other voice related applications...the demo is mind blowing. You would have to see it to believe it...Cognitive Code is way beyond anything I have seen before. Amazing."

The Hard Science of Making Video Games, Ward et. al., Popular Science, Sept 2007
Discusses the "top ten" tech hurdles to making the next generation of highly realistic, immersive games, and how they'll soon be overcome.

Champion Robot Car Declared In the 1880s, the carriage lost its horse. Now, thanks to a car named Boss, the automobile could be about to lose its driver. The grounds of the former George Air Force Base in Victorville, CA, served as a mock city that the robots had to navigate. The course consisted of 60 miles of roads and parking lots and took about six hours to complete. The whole time, the robotic cars needed to obey traffic laws and avoid both cars driven by professional stunt drivers and the other robots on the course. - MustanshioMcHatman

Law of Accelerating Returns
Ray Kurzweil's Essay on technology as an exponential trend. This seminal essay paved the way for much of Kurzweil's Best Selling book, The Singularity is Near.

Limits to Biology (Performance Limitations on Natural and Engineered Biological Systems)
John Smart's essay describing the difficulties of biology-based radical life-extension.

True Chameleon Paint
Nissan hopes to create a paint that changes colors by adding a small electrical charge to its paramagnetic iron oxide paint polymer. - MustanshioMcHatman

World's Smallest Radio - Made of carbon nanotubes a few atoms across, it is almost 1,000 times smaller than current radio technology,"it is conceivable in the future that all components could be nanoscale, thus allowing a truly nanoscale wireless communications system." Professor Peter Burke -MustashioMcHatman

Bootstrapping our way to an ageless future
An excerpt from Aubrey De Grey's book "Ending Aging", published on kurzweilai.net. He discusses some of the technical challenges facing radical life extension as well as the
the monetary issues surrounding support for longevity research.

Robots showing emotion soon?
Powered by servos and microcontrollers, this will allow robotic faces to morph and change more then a normal human. While robots are still a ways away from being like us with A.I. or dynamic ability to move, they would be able to look and express emotion soon enough.-MustashioMcHatman

Unlitimited Power with in our grasp?
The Tokyo Institute of Technology claims that they have found a way to harness unlimited power from a practically-unlimited resource, Magnesium -MustashioMcHatman

http://www.jaronlanier.com/general.html
This page is about Jaron Lanier, one of my favorite furturists. It gives some insights into why he is considered one of the top futurist in the world. He coined the term virtual Reality and He founded one of the first companies that sold VR gear to the public. - Levar H

http://technabob.com/blog/2007/08/27/holographic-display-shows-360-degree-digital-images/
This is also another interesting technological advance worthy of being "futuristic" (man I love that word). In this article it presents something that was show off at the SIGGRAPH 2007 and it being a full 360 degree hologram I would definetly say this is something of great interest (its so cool and they also have a video!) - Disgaeafreak

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS). http://ntrs.nasa.gov
NTRS is a large database of information that you can freely search through although some of the reports might require further searching on your own or purchasing them. You can find reports on the space station, developmental research, antimatter, and much more. - Chris Schoerning

http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/community/ClickZ%20Network%20THE%20ONLINE%20MARKETPLACE,%20A%20Look%20Ahead,%20by%20Michael%20Fischler.htm The future that the internet may adapt us too. In this article the guy goes into explaining how the internet and computer may be used to run your entire house one day. I think this is cool because this is probally where the future is headed and it may or may not be right on the money but it is probally close. - Michael Stringfellow

http://www.nickbostrom.com/revolutions.pdf
A article/paper on technology by Nick Bostrom. It goes into detail with the topic and is quite a long read. - W. Alex Plageman AKA warpped655

Cellphones become so advance they replace your dog - In a Finnish school sponsored by Nokia, the children work up a project with the upcoming N800 cellphone and create a little pet out of it. -MustashioMcHatman

http://www.nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html
A article on the ethics of future AI. It is a very interesting read on the effect of having AI with near-human like abilities. - W. Alex Plageman AKA warpped655

http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0696.html
Interesting article by science fiction author Vernor Vinge that explores the possibility of if the Technological Singularity (where we become or create beings that surpass current human intelligence) were to not happen. It's important to keep an open mind when dealing with the future; while something can be very probable, the probable frequently does not happen. [Trenton Kennedy aka Trentish]

http://www.openthefuture.com/2007/09/singularity_summit_talk_openne.html Presentation/Article by Jamais Cascio.
Talks about how the singularity is an important issue that will affect everyone and how we need an open and transparent process and discussion. Brings up some interesting issues such as: how ethical is it to change the world without consulting it first? [Trenton Kennedy aka Trentish]

http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=local&id=5666232
This is a car that can drive itself! its good and futuristic because who doesn't dream of a car that you dont have to do drive? - Kino

http://www.canada.com/topics/technology/news/gizmos/story.html?id=b193e671-dbf6-4c1b-90c7-8f1aa34a86b2&k=58820
This isabout robot's effects on older people. It is interesting because it shows how the passing of time affects different age groups differently. - Kino

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2007/08/22/irobot_revamps_vacuums_plans_more_home_robots/
Article about home robot vaccums. I like this because its another one of those "small steps into the future." - Kino

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/815/815041p1.html
The forge is halo 3’s new map editor. This is just the future of gaming by far.

http://www.psu.com/Square-Enixs-White-Engine-is-cross-platform--a0001252-p0.php
The beautiful white engine is coming to 360. A big competitor is coming to the American market for engine buying.

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&colID=30&articleID=00007A46-F8C5-1FD3-B58083414B7F0000-
Cognitive scientist Donald A. Norman argues that future machines will need emotions to be truly dependable.

This article gives a look at cars in the near future. http://www.motortrend.com/future/

This article has some intersting info on the future of robots and the oportunities they open up.
http://www.technologyreview.com/Biztech/17931/?a=f

Genetically Engineered Super Mice!
Yesterday, a bunch of scientists at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, USA announced that they had successfully engineered a group of 500 genetically enhanced super mice that are super healthy, extremely aggressive, hyper active, higher in metabolism, have much longer lifespan compared to normal wild mice, can run pretty much non stop for 6 hours and can eat twice more than normal wild mice but only have half the weight. They say that human engineer is by far out of the question. Even with all the great powers the mice have, they obtained a few other abilities like altered behaviors and mental illnesses. - MustanshioMcHatman

ATHLETE
NASA's "All-Terrain Hex-Limbed Extra-Terrestrial Explorer," was designed for lunar cargo hauling. Its 8 limbs allow it to not only travel on diverse terrains, but can also "walk" is soft sands. Attachments like drills and claws can be added to wheel base for extra work, and cameras are every where for the best view possible at every angle. - MustanshioMcHatman

Here's a look at some robots being developped by the military. http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/danger,-will-robinson/armys-autonomous-fighting-bots-bound-to-roll-all-over-you-256682.php

High-speed USB will also be here soon. http://www.usb.org/developers/docs/hs_usb_pdg_r1_0.pdf

Computerized antiaircraft gun suffers error, opens fire, kills 9, wounds 14 South African soldiers. - Pajamas

Cheap new portable motion capture tech
An amazingly cheap and accurate way to do motion capture with less obtrusive sensors. Portable, could be a new componenet of gaming or digital avatars. - Tom Andrys

Sensecam
A great step foreward in capturing information that goes through us, a small digital camera worn around the neck that takes pictures throughout the day then compiles them into a short video may help alzheimers patients. A perfect example of a real need driving a technology that will have much larger impact later on. - Tom Andrys

Environment, Energy, Resources, and Global Articles and Databases

We're only living in a 0.7 Civilisation, of course we can't Harness the Galaxy for power
Michio Kaku, professor of theoretical physics at City University of New York, has released an article stating that one day we maybe able to use the vary Galaxy we live in to harness power for ourselves. Stating that there is "3 Types of Civilizations." "Global pollution is a mortal threat for a Type 0 civilization, but not a Type I civilization, which has lived for several millennia as a global force and necessarily achieved ecological balance with its home planet. A type II civ would harness the energy of a star such as our sun, perhaps by building a huge sphere around it. A type III would harness the power of entire galaxies, controlling the life and death of stars at will." Very interesting read - MustanshioMcHatman

Career Education for a Global Economy, Sandra Kerka, ERIC Digest, 1993
A good basic article on education for a globalizing world. Needs an update.

Ships bring water to parched Barcelona - Tom Andrys

Inflatable Solar Arrays Cost 25X Cheaper then standard Panels
nflatatable solar? Cool Earth Solar has created a new technology that uses traditional photovoltaics and a new inflatable concentrator. We've seen plenty of mirror concentrators before, but this one is unique because it uses inflatable mirrors that are 400 times cheaper than polished aluminum mirrors. Though it has its draw backs, they hope to make it cheaper then non-renewable sources within three years! -MustanshioMcHatman

http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html - A good article on less positive possibilities by Nick Bostrom. It it goes in depth on a topic of possible catastrophes and natural disasters. - W. Alex Plageman AKA warpped655

http://www.nickbostrom.com/astronomical/waste.html - An article on Astronomical Waste by Nick Bostrom. It is a topic that isn't commonly talked about, so its good to get something on it. - W. Alex Plageman AKA warpped655

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/02/24/pond_scum_breakthrough/
Genetic engineers have made a leap in developing a strain of algae with the potential to supply fuel for a future hydrogen economy

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07252/815920-85.stm
Salt water as fuel, this could change things on the energy front.

The Death of Environmentalism
Persuasive essay describing the failures of the environmental community the last 30 years
and their inability to deal with the global warming crisis effectively.

Spinning into control
A Science News Weekly article on using flywheels to store enegy, including on locomotives. -Pajamas

Superfast Lasers used to kill viruses
Researchers are using this ultrashort-pulse laser to destroy the protein shell of viruses. They say the laser frequency will not harm human cells. If their research works, this could be applied to cure uncurable diseases like HIV and Cancers. - MustanshioMcHatman

Wind dam
A new concept of wind power that involves using natural land forms to channel wind into more intense areas for harvest. - Tom Andrys

Gapminder/Trendalyzer
A web-based application to visually compare global trends. Link to TED Talk on it- Tom Andrys

Economics, Globalization, and Capitalism Articles and Databases

The End (of Wall Street's Boom), Michael Lewis, Portfolio.com, Dec 2008 ****
Nine pages, required reading. For more background, see also this short piece by financial journalist Tim Penn.
Fantastic expose of the 1985-2008 Wall Street insanity period, beginning with taking the investment banks public, starting with Solomon Brothers, and shifting all that risk to stockholders, and ending with the subprime mortgage and CDO Ponzi scheme and the 2008 collapse of the housing bubble, major public investment banks, and the market. Also tells the story of how great financial forecasters, like Steve Eisman and his gang of short sellers at FrontPoint partners, can clearly see the end of a major era of governmental and economic mismanagement, in this case the long looming US financial meltdown, can accurately predict and make money off it, yet won't be taken seriously except by the insiders. A little honesty goes a long way at the right time however, as we see in those analysts who foresaw the Great Depression (Ludwig von Mises, Jesse Livermore) and whose blunt statements actually contributed to the US stock market crashes of 1929 (Roger Babson) and 1987 (Meredith Whitney). If we actually made it easier for all of us to be short sellers, instead of scapegoating these individuals, as has been the recent misguided trend, we'd have an economic system where true foresight would be rewarded for all players. Let's hope that happens eventually, in our leading markets. Lewis's article is a perfect example of how public companies, while they are necessary and important, are by their very structure the most short-sighted and growth-at-all-costs oriented. Fortunately there are solutions available, and the best economies use them. Private business, not public, makes most (at least 70%) of our economy run, and generates the most jobs. The most foresighted governments dethrone Wall Street by democratizing the individual investor's ability to give loans to directly to private businesses, both individually and via pooled investments. I'm speaking now of the bond market, which is much larger than the equity market, and which keeps all equity markets honest. Good government policy can structure incentives such that most of the average citizen's investments are in bonds, mostly with private and small to mid-sized firms, where most of the innovation will always reside in any economy, and good tax policy should penalize those investors who have most of their asset in speculative and short sighted equities. We also need new classes of public and private equity markets that are structured to favor long term, less liquid investment horizons. Finally and most importantly, we need governance that measures, grows, and rewards technical productivity (TP), which is far more important as an indicator of economic strength than GDP growth. While most people (social responsibility investors excepted) will always be out for the greatest financial return, governments can always be out for the greatest technical capacity return (science, tech, engineering, automation) from their investments. Countries like Singapore and Japan and China already do this surprisingly well. As govt is the largest segment of the financial system, it can have the greatest effect on moving the economy to a post-GDP-centric world. Let's measure TP everywhere, difficult though it be, and invest our public resources for TP growth. Unlike money, which is jut a proxy for value, an abstract and fiat measure, TP is the most real physical value we can build, as a species, within an economic-social-political system. It is our greatest survival variable and asset, and the countries that realize this, and stay true to it, will be the scientific, economic, and moral leaders of the future. (John Smart)

Pay for things using your fingerprint!
Within the walls of Ten Chicago Shell Stations, they are testing a new method of paying for things, by simply place your finger on the biometric scanner, the money is deducted straight from your account. Just like a credit card but with out the fear of losing it or Identity Theft. Unless someone takes off your finger. Imagine calling Visa for that one - MustanshioMcHatman

Politics, Security, and Democracy Articles and Databases

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/21/delaware.shooting/index.html
This CNN article is about the shooting at Delaware State University. What is futuristic about it? Everyone this day is not a boy; people need to invest into putting money in their campus security.

Pistol cams- N.Y. police to begin testing pistols with attached cameras that begin rolling as soon as they're taken out of the holster.

New British Helmet Renders Plane Invisible, Frightens Kids
This Helmet Mounted Display System provides the pilot with cues for flying, navigating and fighting the aircraft. It will even superimpose infra-red imagery onto the visor which allows the pilot to ‘look through’ the cockpit floor at night and see the world below. -MustanshioMcHatman

Society 1 (Big): Culture, Media, Education and Religion Articles and Databases

Global Media, Law, and Ethics Course (MSTD400), Bill Kovariks, Radford University, 2003-5
Great source of trends and issues on media, law, and ethics.

Earthquake Sets Japan Back to 2147, The Onion, 23 July 2007
Hilarious piece about how a recent earthquake set Japan back technologically about 300 years. To 2147. Classic Onion!

Hong Kong to elect its own leader and legislators by 2020 BBC Dec 29 2007
Will megacities begin to move towards independence from the countries they're in? - Tom Andrys

Society 2 (Medium): Business and Organizations Articles and Databases
http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/lifeinthefuture/FORTUNE_com%203_6_2000%20The%20Capitalist%20Century%20Office%20Fantasies%20of%20the%20Future.htm This is what the top businesses of today think the future of buisness offices will be like. I personally don't think it is right on the money but I think it brings some valuable information to the argument. - Michael Stringfellow

http://www.engadget.com/2007/09/17/coca-cola-readying-self-chilling-soft-drinks/
Coca Cola is developing a new soda that will make itself cold upon opening it. As we can see from this example, it is important to keep in mind that scientific breakthrough is frequently pursued for financial gain, not just discovery. - Trenton Kennedy aka Trentish]

No longer working in a cubicle..but a sphericle?
Designer Marcus Curran created this new workspace, the Eclipse partition system. The central idea behind this contraption is versatility. Its retractable hood allows for various levels of privacy and access to accommodate to the changing work flow of one's daily job. The hood also changes colors and graphics among having many other little things amenities to make you feel more comfortable in your workspace. - MustanshioMcHatman

Society 3 (Small): Personal & Careers Articles and Databases

http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/Boston%20Globe%20Online%20-%20Business%20-%20Growing%20earth's%20'electronic%20skin'.htm
This article goes into what the future may proceed with in or future homes and lifes. It is a cool article because it shows just how far the technology of today may be taken in the future and what it's limitations may or may not be. - Michael Stringfellow

http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/19344/?a=f Article by Kate Greene which talks about Adobe Systems who is developing software that would allow mainstream computer users to create high quality graphics and animations. It’s interesting to think about what the average person will be capable of creating in the future. [Trenton Kennedy aka Trentish]

Audio Spotlight- a new approach to marketing; narrow beams of sound are directed at people similarly to the LRAD Long Range Acoustic Device to convey inescapable advertising audio. -Tom Andrys

Multidisciplinary Articles and Databases

Realistic Fiction Articles and Databases
[Realistic fiction has major parts which feel like they actually could happen in the future, under the right circumstances. Most fantasy and a lot of science fiction really doesn't count as realistic--there are exceptions however, and if you think that some particular aspect of a fantasy or SF quotation feels realistic, include it here and explain why. Future fiction is a subgenre of general or science fiction that feels realistic most of the way through, to many readers. Good future fiction is quite hard to write, as you can imagine.]
List Fiction Articles and Databases Below in Alpha Order by Title

_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Articles and Databases of Uncertain Classification
Put below any articles or databases you recommend but can't easily classify above.

Disgaeafreak:This article that I found is about how the airforce is actually funding/ trying to develop anitmatter weapons. I my personal opinion that's just about as futuristic as it can get. The link is http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/10/04/MNGM393GPK1.DTL

Teaching Template

JohnMSmart — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 23:15:23 CST

Below is a brief Teaching Template to orient new instructors to the essentials of the course.

TCH110 (Foresight Development) Teaching Template – Fall 2007 Version

This core course teaches futures studies (how people create, discover, and manage the future) and personal foresight activities. It strives to give students context and methods for being “innovators of the future.”

TCH110 instructor prerequisites:
1. Already proficient in and willing to learn more about accelerating science, technology, and business trends.
2. Interested in teaching literature on the future of science, tech, environment, economics, politics, and society.
3. Motivated to help students become more foresighted and proactive in their professional and personal lives.

Key course components at present are: A. Required Texts, B. Lecture Slides, C. Videos, D. Supplemental Books, E. Essays, F. Online Discussions, G. Course Wiki, H. Student Presentations, I. Midterms, J. Personal Futures Portfolio.

A. Required Texts
a.Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Hines & Bishop, 2007 ($20).(Weeks 1-7)
This book introduces students to professional foresight methods and ideas.
b. Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress-Free Productivity, David Allen, 2001 (Weeks 8-14)
This book teaches a well-regarded system for building personal foresight (life organizing and planning).
c. StrengthsFinder 2.0, Tom Rath, 2007
This book and its online test predicts five prominent personality strengths for each student (out of 32 identified by Gallup profilers), and gives advice on using those strengths most effectively in social and collaborative situations.

B. Lecture Slides
Lectures follow the format below. From 20 to 60 slides are presented each week. Slides can be presented in dual-monitor mode, where the instructor can read private slide presentation notes off their laptop synchronized with each slide presented to the students.
Unit I. The Big Picture (Weeks 1-4)
Week 1 – Intro to Futures Studies
Week 2 – Evolution, Development, and the Future of Science
Week 3 – Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part I
Week 4 – Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part II
Unit II. Global and Societal Foresight (Weeks 5-9)
Week 5 – Global Trends, Scenarios, and Models
Week 6 – Global Problems and Priorities
Week 7 – Economics and the Future of Capitalism
Week 8 – Politics and the Future of Security and Democracy
Week 9 – Culture, Media and Education in a Network Society
Unit III. Business and Organizational Foresight (Weeks 10-11)
Week 10 – Biz-Org Leadership, Innovation, Learning, and Predicting
Week 11 – Biz-Org Planning, Consensus-Building, Benefiting, and Metrics
Unit IV. Personal and Career Foresight (Weeks 12-15)
Week 12 – Personal and Career Creativity and Visioning
Week 13 – Personal and Career Learning and Predicting
Week 14 – Personal and Career Planning and Negotiating
Week 15 – Personal and Career Benefiting and Measuring

C. Videos/Futures Movie Night
Roughly one video per week (up to 15 weeks) is shown on the TCH110 Futures Movie Night, and discussed for 30 minutes in class afterward. These videos are also available for student checkout in the UAT library, and some are also viewable online. Any videos shown should also be watched by the instructor either before or during class.

D. Supplemental Books
Ten books per week are introduced, briefly discussed, and handed around the classroom for student inspection. These 150 Great Futures Books (15 weeks) are in the TCH110 reference library, and most are also available for checkout from the UAT regular library. Some can also be browsed online through Amazon’s “Search Inside This Book” feature. Instructors don’t need to read these books but should be familiar with why each may be particularly useful to the student (instructors may also have their own substitutions to make here).

E. Essays
Students write an essay (teachback) for each of the four course units (50 points per essay). These essays must be related to and quote from one of the Great Futures Books for the unit. Students can A) check these books out from the instructor, or B) from the UAT library, or C) purchase them online (most recommended option, as this course is light on required books), or D) as a last resort, use “Search Inside this Book” to find relevant quotation sources for these essays. An Educational Assistant (EA) may be available to help with grading these essays.

F. Online Discussions
Eight Online Discussions (10 points per discussion) are assigned in the course shell, one roughly every two weeks. They involve online articles, videos, websites, games, responses to in-class films, etc. Five options are offered for each discussion and the students pick two items (4 points each, for 8 points) to complete. Students are also asked to post a colleague response to a fellow students post, containing both a compliment and a constructive critique (1 point each, for 2 points).

G. Course Wiki Contributions
Four times during the course (25 points each) students visit the public TCH110 Course Wiki to add futures articles, statistics, images, personal career forecasts, and other items to the wiki as public documents, available for future students of the course. Instructors need administrator access to the wiki, and they need to learn how to use it to check up on student contributions. At the end of every semester instructors need to take a few hours to cull through the student’s wiki contributions, editingor eliminating any that are less relevant or well crafted, in the instructor’s judgment.

H. Student Presentations
At the end of each of the four course units students form small teams (7 or less per team) and do 3 minute in-class presentations (no points given) on Great Futures Questions relative to the Unit. Students vote a “winning” team at the end of these presentations, and optional very low cost prizes are awarded to the winning team. Instructors may need to subsidize those prizes on their own or ask for reimbursement, if they are going to do them.

I. Midterms
Two midterms (150 points each) are administered at the end of Week 6 and Week 11, to test the first six and the next five weeks of lecture, required text readings, and course video content. Midterms are open book for the student, are administered online, multiple choice (A-E) and are automatically graded. Instructors should give an evening review session (two and a half hours) on the Friday prior to each midterm. Student attendance at review sessions is optional but recommended.

J. Personal Futures Portfolio.
During the last seven weeks of the course students use the Personal Futures Wiki Template to create and work on their own 14 page personal futures wiki, including Getting Things Done pages, visioning and goal development, personality profile tests, career planning and mentoring, considering possible career paths, company and internship research, learning about financial planning, money management, consequences of poor financial foresight, even writing their obituary!A selection of these personal foresight projects is assembled into a written document and submitted as a Take-Home Final that is graded on completeness, not content (200 points).

Course grading is based on 1,000 points. All grading items and weights can be found in the course shell (and can be adjusted by instructors as desired). See the e-College Course Shell and the online Course Wiki for more on any of these topics.

Questions? Please contact the course developer, John Smart (johnsmart@accelerating.org, 310 831-4191 ofc) any time for help with teaching this course.

All material on this wiki is open source, creative commons licensed. Feel free to use any portion of this with appropriate attribution to "University of Advancing Technology, Foresight Development curriculum."

Unclassified Stuff

Roivas — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 16:57:51 CST

This is a place to stick resource or topic items that you can't figure out how to classify. You can also put Unclassified Stuff at the bottom of any of the pages above. If you can, try to figure out at least which page above that your info should go on and put it there.

If you still aren't sure after looking them over and thinking about it, put it here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hPFmzzFFmM
Tuesday: The Movie
A hyper realistic film created entirely by escaped mental patients for escaped mental patients. One part Clockwork Orange and one part Monty Python, this movie represents the future of entertainment in the eyes of Impure Studios.

http://www.thewaytotruth.org/prophetmuhammad/distant_predictions.html
An article on a somewhat controversial topic: religion. This article attempts to explain religious predictions and prophecies and how accurate they are to the present and future. Be warned, this article is a fairly biased as it is a religious site. However, if for nothing else, its a good look into a religious perspective on the future. - Steven Janca

Glossary

JohnMSmart — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 15:26:06 CDT

Foresight Development Glossary

A glossary of terms relevant to futures studies and foresight development. As you come across new terms that you need to define, look them up or ask someone, get the best definition you can, then place them here, either in alpha order in the list (if you have a good definition) or at the bottom (if you aren't sure/want it checked).

Many of these terms are from the foresight glossary of the polymath (look it up!) futurist Dennis List of Audience Dialog. Dennis allowed us to post them here just before he passed away in 2007. Thanks to Dennis for sharing them!

NOTE: Many of the links below don't yet work.
_________________________________________________________________________________

3P's foresight types model
Possible, Probable, and Preferable ("3P's) futures. Widely considered three basic types of futures. Coined by futurist Roy Amara (Institute of the Future). See also CDM foresight skills model, for a skills-based version of this model.
Alternative futures
The idea that there is not a single future, but a range of futures, all of which might occur at the same time in different environments or for different people, as well as a range of possible futures, which are influenced by human choice today. A pluralistic view of the future, generally accepted among futurists.
Alternative history
The history of what might have happened but didn't. A great way to illustrate the power of choice in shaping the future. Also called a counterfactual. What if World War III had broken out in the 1960s? What if Napoleon had conquered the USA? What if Jesus Christ had never been born? These are counterfactuals, and stories exploring them are alternative histories.
Anticipation
If you can't predict the future correctly, what's the use of futures studies? Answer: even if you don't know what's going to happen, or when it's going to happen, you can at least anticipate a range of possibilities, and prepare for them.
Anticipatory action learning
An extension of action research into the area of futures studies - pioneered by Tony Stevenson and Paul Wildman, of Australia.
Assumption surfacing
A method of revealing underlying assumptions - proposed by Mason and Mitroff in 1981, which asks people to list their own assumptions. However, in our own experiments with this method, only trivial assumptions surfaced. As they say, "the fish cannot see the water." We've found this works better when two people, from different backgrounds, engage in a dialogue, and each is asked to discover the other's implicit assumptions. We're also working on a new method of surfacing assumptions by caricaturing their extremes. Autopoiesis
The way a living system continually renews itself by redefining the boundary between itself and its environment. From the Greek term for "self-production." Another way of putting this is that an organization's identity is defined by its relationship with the outside world. For example, a business might realize that it needs to grow in a certain direction in order to remain viable. From Chilean biologists Maturana and Varela.
B-curve
A generic change curve, seen in many types of biological systems, that involves an S-curve of growth followed by decline of capacity over time, and ultimate recycling and death. Looks like a "b" on its side. The impact of an individual over time, or any idea or system that eventually goes extinct, follows such a curve.
Baby boomers
People born between the end of World War II and the early 1960s (when the advent of the contraceptive pill dramatically lowered the birthrate in Western countries.) Often just called Boomers.
Backcasting
Working backwards from a possible future state to determine how it might unfold.
Bellwether
Much the same as a precursor: a social group that adopts trends earlier than most others. For example, it is often said that California is a bellwether state of the USA, because trends appear there first. The danger of such assumptions is that bellwethers can change. Try to imagine:
(a) a cosmopolitan place, which is attracting well-educated young people.
(b) a political and social climate that doesn't hold back change.
(c) a conduit for news to the rest of the world (because a trend can't be a precursor unless people elsewhere become aware of it).
(d) a thriving arts scene: permitted by (b) and encouraging (a) and (c). For example, in the early 21st century, Ireland qualifies on (a) and perhaps (c), Finland on (a) and (b) but probably not (c). Other possibilities are New York (still?), Hong Kong, and Prague.
Biodiversity
This term is normally used to imply that the diversity of plant and animal species should be maintained, and that extinction is undesirable, because you never know when a species might be useful. The idea can be extended beyond its biological reference to human cultures and languages. Their biodiversity might be important too.
Boundary spanning
People who pass information from one social group to another are called boundary spanners, because they span the boundaries between different groups. It's through boundary spanning that diffusion can take place effectively.
Butterfly effect
The idea, often expressed in writings on chaos theory, that small changes in one part of a system can produce unpredictable large changes in another part - thus a butterfly flapping its wings in South America might trigger a snowfall in New York.
Causal Attribution
People seem impelled to assign causes to anything that happens: this seems to be some kind of deep psychological need. But if they assign the wrong causes, this belief can be difficult to change, and sometimes leads to bloodshed - for example, when one social group blames another for causing problems. Think of the Israelis and the Palestinians, the Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland, the Hutus and the Tutsis in Rwanda, and the Catholic/ Orthodox/ Muslim struggle in the former Yugoslavia. Causal attribution is a powerful force - so can it be reshaped? (See also fundamental attribution error and ultimate attribution error.)
Causal layered analysis (CLA)
A futures analysis approach developed by futurist Sohail Inayatullah: that the forces driving history can be subdivided into a number of layers, operating at different layers of social consciousness. He distinguishes four levels: most superficially, the "litany" (as expressed by populist media). Secondly, social causes (with a more quantitative emphasis, as found in more academic literature). Thirdly, "worldview" and the cultural structures that support them. Fourthly, and least accessible, the layer of myth and metaphor: archetypes, the collective unconscious, with an emotional rather than intellectual emphasis. To understand forces shaping the future, you must consider all four of these levels. For more information, see Sohail's website www.metafuture.org
CDM foresight skills model
Creating (or Envisioning), Discovering (or Predicting), and Managing (or Guiding) the future. Adaptation of the 3P's Foresight Types Model, using skills/actions. Creating/Envisioning is about bringing forth or imagining possible futures, which may or may not last or work out (like a new product in the marketplace). Discovering/Predicting is about probable futures, what you expect to happen based on your knowledge of the world. Managing/Guiding is about preferable futures (working toward a future that you or others desire). Coined by futurist Graham May (The Future is Ours, 1996).
Chain scenario
A scenario which describes a chain of events (probable or not) leading to some future. For example the futurist Herman Kahn in his book On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios, 1986 outlines chains of events that would lead to World War III. Backcasting is the construction of a chain scenario in reverse (from the future rather than from the present). Compare snapshot scenario for the more common alternative type of scenario.
Change curve
A curve that charts the change in number, capacity, or performance change in the growth, development, or decay of some system over time. There are several generic types (generic change curves) and a broad range of possible individual types. See S-curve, B-curve, and J-curve for some generic types. See also linear change, exponential curve and superexponential curve definitions.
Chaos theory
Misleadingly labelled: this is the concept that patterns which appear to be chaotic can be quite predictable, because a small change in one measure can lead to a major change in another. So if you understand the mechanisms, the apparent chaos disappears. Water changing to steam when it boils is almost an example of such "chaos". See Butterfly effect. The book Chaos by James Gleick is a clear introduction to chaos theory.
Cohort
A group of people, born during the same period. For example, the baby boomers are a cohort, born c.1945-1960. The term "generation" is sometimes used in a similar way, but a cohort can be much less than a generation. For example, people born in a single year are a cohort, but not a generation.
Conjecture / speculation
A thought about the future that falls short of a prediction. A low probability is implied: a conjecture is something that seems unlikely to happen.
Constructive technology assessment (CTA)
Anticipating the effects of a new technology by having meetings with a wide range of stakeholders, who foresee problems with the new technology and find improvements to it. CTA is not a specific research method, but an approach to sustainable technology development; a wide range of consensus methods can be used.
Counterfactual
A future as seen from the past: the mainstay of much science fiction. What if World War III had broken out in the 1960s? What if Napoleon had conquered the USA? What if Jesus Christ had never been born? These are counterfactuals.
Critical futures studies
A recent approach to studying the future, centred around identifying and questioning assumptions that people hold, sometimes unconsciously. A leading exponent is Sohail Inayatullah, the developer of Causal Layered Analysis. Critical futures is related to (but different from) integral futures studies.
Critical uncertainty
A type of uncertainty that makes a major (i.e. critical) difference to the future of the entity being studied. Often related to a discontinuity. Used in dimensional analysis. Morphological analysis is in some ways similar. Cross-impact analysis
To do cross-impact analysis, first list the main forces that can affect the future of the system being studied. Then compare every force on the list with every other, and ask "if these two forces happen together, will the effect on the system be about the same as if each happened separately, or more, or less?" The practical problem with cross-impact analysis is that if you think of 50 forces (a typical number, in many situations), that's 1225 comparisons to be made (50 x 49 / 2). For 100 forces, the number of comparisons jumps to 4950. With such large numbers, it's hard to find time to consider each pair in enough detail.
Cyclical patterns
Some experts,such as the economist Kondratieff, believe in a theory of "long waves" - i.e. that economic cycles repeat themselves every 55 to 60 years. Though a lot of (retrospective) evidence has been amassed to support this theory, and some highly respected experts support it, I'm skeptical. Why 55 years, and not 45? Is it a "clogs to clogs in three generations" effect? If so, why isn't the cycle length increasing in parallel with the growing generation span? To me, such data, without an explanation, is suspect.
There are at least three different issues mixed together here:
(1) Do repeated economic cycles exist - or are the fluctuations of the world economy effectively random variation?
(2) If waves exist, do they have about an equal amplitude? (If not, how can you distinguish a main wave from a sub-wave - bearing in mind the principles of Fourier analysis?)
(3) Even if waves clearly exist, of about the same amplitude, is the periodicity roughly constant?
My own conclusion: the jury is definitely out!
Decomposition
Making a numerical forecast more accurate by decomposing the figure into a set of separate trends. For example, Fred Collopy and Scott Armstrong (in 1996) decomposed an apparently random graph of annual highway deaths in the UK into two factors: traffic volume (which was irregularly rising), and death rate (steadily falling).
Delphi method
A way of estimating future measures by asking a group of experts to make estimates, recirculating the estimates back to the group, and repeating the process till the numbers converge. Often used for estimating when an event might occur - e.g. "In what year will the majority of households in OECD countries have broadband internet access?" Developed in the 1950s by Harold Linstone and Murray Turoff, and widely used, specially in Japan. Determinism
The philosophy of destiny: that the course of history is predetermined, and there's nothing that anybody can do to change that. This leads to fatalism. Diachronic
The view of history as a narrative, or sequence of events, with the implication that you are looking for causes in the chain. The counterpart of synchronic. Diffusion
The way in which an innovation begins with a small group of people, then gradually spreads to a wider population. The rate of diffusion often (roughly) follows an S-curve. See the work of Frank Bass, and Everett Rogers' book Diffusion of Innovations.
Dimensional analysis
A common method of producing scenarios. This involves seeking the critical uncertainties - i.e. the two or three main dimensions on which the future under consideration is most uncertain, and creating scenarios around the extremes of those dimensions. Clear examples can be found in Window on the Future: a Scenario Planning Primer by South Wind Design, Michigan, 2001. Discontinuity
A sudden historical change, making it difficult to compare what came before and after. The sudden extinction of the dinosaurs is an example. However, because people focus on the recent past, a discontinuity may not be noticed till well after it happens. Thus whether the dinosaurs became extinct in a month or a thousand years is not relevant to us now, and what we currently see as discontinuities may be seen by later generations as minor changes in a broad trend. Similar to a wildcard event. See also surprise and innovation (discontinuous).
Discount rate
A concept first used by accountants: that income in the future is worth less than income now. The higher your discount rate, the less willing you are to make long-term investments. In practice, many people heavily discount the future, such that a benefit now (to you, for example) is worth many times more than a benefit in a few decades' time (to your children).
Driver
A broad term for any force causing change, whether brought about by persons, organizations, or STEEPS3 conditions.
Dystopia
The opposite of Utopia - an account of an undesirable future. Novels such as George Orwell's 1984, Aldous Huxley's Brave New World, and Eugene Zamyatin's We are considered dystopias - which makes them dystopic. Emergence
When complex results arise from a combination of simple causes. An idea much liked by chaos theorists, who like to build simple computer models and imply that reality is equally predictable. Though this may work for (e.g) predicting the shape of ants' nests, it doesn't work for human society, partly because of reflexivity. See also self-organization - a very similar concept. Emerging issue analysis (EIA)
Similar to environmental scanning, but tries to pick up trends much earlier in their lifespan - hence the name "emerging issues". Futurist Graham Molitor has written a lot about this. The key to EIA is to find precursors: people, places, organizations, and writing that is ahead of the rest of the world. One of Molitor's main findings is that new ideas often begin at the fringes of society, and slowly work their way toward the mainstream.
Endogenous
Caused from within. For example, if a manufacturer decides to stop making one product and make another instead, the change is endogenous if the decision is a completely internal one. But if they decide to change because the market for the old product was disappearing, the decision might be endogenous, but the influence would be exogenous (the opposite).
Environmental scanning / Horizon scanning
Also known as horizon scanning, often abbreviated to just scanning. A systematic method of looking for drivers that influence the future. The process can be passive or active, continuous or occasional. "Environmental" here is not restricted to the natural environment, but covers all types of environment - see STEEPS3 foresight categories model.
Episteme
In the sense used by the French philosopher Foucault: the collective worldview of a particular culture, in a certain place and time. An episteme structures the way people think, and determines what is discussable. Not quite linguistic limitations, not quite social desirability, but something in between.
Event sequence analysis
Studying sequences of historical events to determine the extent of repetition. This area has been explored not by historians or futurists, but by sociologists. See pattern language.
Exogenous
Caused externally. For example, when an industry, or an area changes due to pressures from outside the industry, that's an exogenous change. The opposite of endogenous.
Exponential curve
A generic change curve, x(t) = ce^kt, seen in many types of physical systems when the growth (or decline) in number, capacity, or performance is a function of the number present at any time. Think of population growth in a resource-unlimited environment, or exponential decay. Also seen in the growth of velocity under a force (gravitational and other acceleration), and perhaps, in the growth in computing power in local areas of the universe over time (law of accelerating returns). The shape of exponential curves look the same at every point along the curve. Compare to J-curve / superexponential curve.
Extended present
Elise Boulding's idea that the "present" is not just the moment when you are reading this word, but extends several generations before and after that, perhaps 100 years from now in each direction. For geologists, the extended present might be plus or minus a million years from now. To think of the present as longer-lasting helps put our present time into a larger perspective. Extrapolation
A method used in forecasting - much the same as projection. If you drank one cup of coffee yesterday and two today, then you will drink 3 tomorrow (by arithmetical extrapolation: adding one each time) or 4 (by geometric extrapolation - doubling each time). You can do this with letters too. A little puzzle: what comes next, after A H I M ?
Event tree
Think of a tree as having a trunk, that spreads out into a number of branches above and a number of roots below. If the trunk represents an event. the roots are the causes and the branches are the effects. Used in midcasting, to create interlinked networks of event trees. This concept is an adaptation of the problem trees used in ZOPP.
Evolutionary development / evo devo / evo-devo
A new academic discipline, evolutionary developmental biology, or "evo devo" (see Endless Forms Most Beautiful: The New Science of Evo Devo, Sean Carroll, 2006) that examines the relationships between embryonic development and evolutionary change, despite the radically different time scales of these two processes. More generally, it is the recognition that both processes occur on long timescales, using very different dynamics. See also universal evolutionary development.
Factor X
...where X is a number, usually 10 or 20. It represents the increase in efficiency needed in rich countries' use of the earth's resources to attain sustainability a few decades in the future. When X is 20, it means we need to reduce resource usage to 5% of the present figure. It will have to happen - and it won't be that difficult. More detail at www.factor10-institute.org Fatalism
The psychological counterpart of determinism: the belief that the future will happen anyway, and there's nothing that anybody can do about it. It follows that it's useless to try and improve the human condition. The concept of fate is not quite so fatalistic: the endpoint may be predetermined, but the routes to it may not. See also determinism.
Feedback
The process by which the effect of an event can also cause that event. There are two forms: positive feedback (strengthening the event) and negative feedback (weakening it). Simple examples of feedback are hard with audio systems. If a microphone picks up the sounds from a loudspeaker that it's connected to, positive feedback amplifies some of the sounds, and the result is a high-pitched screech. When an audio amplifying system works as intended, it uses negative feedback: the (loud) output signal of an amplifier is compared with the (soft) input signal, and automatically modified so that it becomes an accurate reflection of the input, but louder.
Field anomaly relaxation (FAR)
A concept developed by Russell Rhyne, used in morphological analysis. It involves a systematic approach to reduce the number of combinations of future possibilities to a manageable level, by excluding combinations that are implausible.
Four-box scenarios
A scenario development method popularized by futurist consulting firm Global Business Network. Involves taking two "important but uncertain" dichotomies or dimensions of possible outcome, such as whether the economy will grow or not over the coming decade, whether individual actors or collective policies will have more influence, or whether virtual or physical firms will be more productive (that's three, but only two of these would be picked to four-box the outcomes) and charting the four possible combinations of the two dichotomies/dimensions. Each combination is then made into a scenario, leaving four possible futures. See dimensional analysis for more.
Force-field analysis
This method, developed in the 1950s by psychologist Kurt Lewin, compares the forces helping and the forces hindering a desired outcome. One set of forces tries to change the status quo, and the other tries to keep it. Identifying these opposing forces helps people to plan ways of dealing with them. Forecasting
Predicting that an event will happen, to a defined extent, and sometimes with a defined probability. For example "there's a 50-50 chance that at least 1 millimetre of rain will fall in this area tomorrow" is a forecast. Forecasts are usually applied to short-term futures - no more than a few years ahead. A forecast is considered to be less certain than prediction, but more certain than conjecture or anticipation.
Foresight
A broad term covering all methods of envisaging the future, but with an emphasis on the alternative futures concept. Most writers on foresight - those who do foresighting - consider it to include some element of action or decision, so forecasting alone is not enough to qualify as foresight, though it is a part of it. Compare with future/s studies.
Foresight development
Improving our human ability to think about the future and to act effectively now to build a better future. Foresight development thus includes futures studies plus foresighted thinking and behaviors. Assumes that the human response to the future is both a mental/psychological skill that can be improved (like hindsight or insight) and a set of behavior habits (like organizing, predicting, planning, investing, insurance, etc.) that can be strengthened with study and practice. These are often divided into various skillsets (eg., CDM foresight skills model). Framing
A psychological setting that gives specific meaning to a statement.For example, a child might be scared by a horror film, so a parent will say "don't be afraid, it's only a movie. " Originally proposed by Gregory Bateson in "A theory of play and fantasy", in Steps to An Ecology of Mind. When you are thinking inside a frame, and aren't aware of it, you won't realize that it can change. See also reframing.
Future
This common word is mentioned here because it actually has two meanings, which could be called future-as-time and future-as-image. If you ask "when is the future?" the answer is that it's some time ahead, but probably not this year. But if you ask "where is the future?" the present tense gives it away: it's inside people's heads, and as such it's here right now. These two different meanings can cause confusion.
Future memory
When you have mentally prepared for a situation in advance, you recognize the early warning signs (precursors) that you had anticipated. In that sense, you are remembering your earlier vision of the future. This enables you to quickly put your plans into action.
Future shock
The idea that people are traumatized by the speed of change. Popularized by the 1970 book of the same name by Alvin Toffler.
Futures studies
The study of the ways in which futures could happen. Note the plural: this makes it clear that at least some aspects of our futures are not predetermined. Futures studies is an emerging academic discipline that reflects on how today’s changes and continuities become tomorrow’s reality. It attempts to analyze the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in order to develop foresight and to map alternative futures. Unfortunately, use of the plural "futures" causes some confusion with market trading of commodity futures - perhaps a reason for the use of the alternative word foresight to describe the study of the future/s. See Wikipedia def.
Futures triangle
A triangle is used to help discern the plausible future and develop strategy. The three points of the triangle represent the pull or image of the future (visual), the push or drivers of the present (quantitative) and the weight or barriers of the past (deep structures). There are dominant and contending images, with various weights. This method was developed by Sohail Inayatullah; see Causal Layered Analysis.
Futures wheel
Beginning from the present, consider a number of possibilities that might occur. From each of those possibilities, what other possibilities follow? Continue this process, in the form of a diagram (similar to a mind-map), and it will take a shape resembling a wheel.
Futuretecture
Architecture that is very modern, futuristic, daring, sustainable, artificially intelligent, or otherwise inspiring.
Futurible
A possible future. The term comes from Bertrand de Jouvenel, in The Art of Conjecture, one of the earliest books on future studies - first published in English in 1967, in French a few years earlier.
Futurist
One who looks to and analyzes the future. Futurists usually look out more than just a few years ahead. Fortune tellers and prophets don't qualify, because they have no scientific basis for their predictions. Most forecasters don't qualify either, because their focus is short-term and focused on just a few measures. Futurists at the Acceleration Studies Foundation have described twelve common futurist types--six social types, and six methodological types. See Twelve Types of Futurist def. See Wikipedia def.
Futurology
An older term for the study of the future, used mainly in the US around the 1960s. The "ology" ending has connotations that the future is scientifically predictable. These days, the more neutral term "futures studies" is preferred, and experts in this area are called Futurists, not Futurologists.
Futurtechture
Architechture that does one or all of the three following things. It employs lateral thinking, it uses a futuristic style, or it solves a future problem.
Generations X and Y
These are supposed to be people born in the decades after the baby boomers: perhaps the 1960s for Generation X and the 1970s for Generation Y. A theory often mentioned by "pop futurists" and marketing gurus. It might be worth considering - if it could be established that all people born in a certain decade have characteristics in common that do not relate to their age group at the time. In other words, this is a type of cohort theory. Be suspicious!
Generic growth scenarios / SBJ scenarios / Dator's Four Futures
Four classic growth alternatives for complex systems, told in scenario format: Continuation, Limits and Discipline, Decline and Collapse, and Transformation. The four outcomes are represented by different parts of the S-, B-, and J-curves. All four of these outcomes probably operate in various parts of complex systems as any major change occurs. Each is a very important perspective on the process of change. First described by futurist Jim Dator in 1979.
Compare to Four-box scenarios.
Gestalt
A holistic perception of something - seeing it as a whole.
Hindsight
The opposite of foresight: the ability to review the past, to say what has happened, and why. Hindsight is a lot easier than foresight. Looking back into the past, you can say "How can anybody have been so stupid as not to see that X would happen?" But if you wanted to be critical about hindsight, you could dismiss it as post-hoc rationalization - reinterpreting history to suit your purpose.
Holistic
Considering a system as a whole, not as a collection of parts. (That would be considered atomistic.) Atomistic views of you include your separate roles as (perhaps) employee, consumer, mother ... - or as head, arms, torso ... - or as skin, bone, blood ... - and so on. Though there are many kinds of atomistic view, there is only one holistic view: of you as an entire person. Compare with gestalt.
Holon
A holon is a system that contains other systems, and is itself contained within a larger system. For example, you are a holon, because your body contains a number of systems (nervous system, digestion system, brain, etc) but you are part of a larger system (a family), which is also part of a larger system (a settlement) ... and so on. This useful concept was originated by Arthur Koestler, in his 1967 book Ghost in the Machine.
Image
A mental picture of the future - similar to vision.
Incasting
Imagining yourself to be living in a particular future scenario, and working through its implications. A method developed mainly by futurists Jim Dator and Wendy Schultz.
Innovation
A confusing term, because innovation surveys use various definitions, as explained in the OECD's Oslo Manual (90-page PDF). The key points are (a) that invention is not innovation, but the use of invention is, (b) innovation can be a process as well as a product, and (c) an innovation is new in its context, not necessarily in all world history. In the 1930s mirrors were not an innovation in Europe, but they caused much surprise in the highlands of New Guinea. Innovation can be considered either incremental or discontinuous. An incremental innovation is an improvement to an existing system - such as the move from videotape to DVD, while a discontinuous (or radical) innovation is something quite new - such as the move from nothing to videotape. But whether an innovation is classed as incremental or radical depends on the context you see it in. For television audiences, videotape was discontinuous. For recordists it was an incremental advance from audio to video, but for maintenance people the helical scanning technology made it discontinuous.
Institutionalization
Making change semi-permanent by building it into a country's institutional structure: a step that some governments try to take, so that their policies will continue after they are voted out.
Integral futures
An approach developed by leading futurist Richard A Slaughter. The label "integral" applies to the use of individual and internal futures, as well as social and political. It emphasizes that the future is brought about as much by people's inner (mental) worlds as by external events. You could say that it's people's interpretation of events, not the events themselves, that create "the future." Slaughter, based on the work of Ken Wilber, distinguishes four types of "world" that create the future: subjective intentions, subjective culture, objective social, and objective behaviour. For a more detailed explanation, see Slaughter's paper Knowledge creation, futures methodologies, and the integral agenda, and his website www.foresightinternational.com.au. See also critical futures, above.
J-curve / superexponential curve
A generic change curve, seen in special physical systems, where at some point in capacity or time, known as the "knee of the curve," the growth (or decline) in number, capacity, or performance rapidly turns a corner, and becomes effectively asymptotic (goes vertically up or down). See technological singularity for an example. Compare to exponential curve. Superexponential curves and processes may have exponential growth as a baseline, but with additional positive (or negative) feedback cycles that push the curve steeper than exponential. In The Age of Spiritual Machines, 2000, futurist Ray Kurzweil proposed that computer performance growth has been gently superexponential over the last 110 years because computer capacity seems to grow exponentially on average over time, yet as computer power grows in an absolute sense, the computer industry becomes more useful to society, and more resources (including people and computers) are used to generate the next generation of computers, pushing the growth superexponential.
Judgemental forecasting
Making a numerical forecast using expert judgement or intuition, not only mathematical formulas. (Though of course the assumptions built into those formulas also make them somewhat judgemental.) Much the same as subjective forecasting or qualitative forecasting.
Lacandecinal[adj.] {lack-can-dess-in-all}
Describes someone both apathetic and ignorant, mostly used as derogatory, somewhat obscure.
Lagging indicator
A measure, usually economic, that occurs after others. The opposite of a leading indicator. Examples of lagging indicators are unemployment rates (because unemployment rises late in the standard economic cycle), and official statistics (lagging in a different sense, because they can take years to be published).
Law of accelerating returns
The proposal by futurist Ray Kurzweil that Moore's law of exponential growth in computer power and technological ability can be extended back to the beginning of computing technology. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology is invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions. He predicts that such paradigm shifts have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history." See technological singularity.
Leading indicator
A measure, often economic, that occurs before others. For example, the numbers of job advertisements and new housing approvals are leading indicators of economic growth. The opposite of a lagging indicator.
Lead time
The time it takes for something to happen, between planning and implementation. For example, the lead time for a major construction project may be many years.
Limits to Growth
The concept that the world will run out of essential minerals before long. From a book of the same name (1972) by Mesarovic and Pestel. A type of Malthusian view.
Linear change
Arithmetic change (y = Mx + b) in a system over time. Compare to exponential change.
Macrohistory
Studying history on the largest scale, looking at the whole world over centuries, and discovering broad patterns - some of which may continue into the future.
Malthusian
The theory of Thomas Malthus (c.1780), who believed that the world's population would increase to the threshold of starvation. Cf Limits to Growth. Mechanism
A method through which social change occurs; a way in which a cause is expressed. For example, a well known mechanism is that the public becomes disturbed about an issue, and votes in a new government, which changes a law, which is generally obeyed. On a smaller scale are mechanisms that apply to individuals, such as Freud's defence mechanisms. Midcasting
A scenario-building method developed by Dennis List (of Audience Dialogue), part of scenario network mapping. It involves defining a set of possible futures, and a set of present situations (as seen by different actors), and using event trees to envisaging scenarios that create paths between the presents and the futures.
Mindset
A person's habitual way of thinking or perceiving, similar to worldview, but perhaps changing in different situations or roles. You can use one mindset as a driver and another as a pedestrian, but both will spring from the same worldview.
Modelling
Creating a model of what might happen in the future, using a set of equations that relate inputs to outputs - a mathematical model, that runs on a computer. Special software is available for creating these models, or you can simply use a spreadsheet, setting up a series of formulas in cells that reference one another. The difficulty lies in verifying the assumptions embodied in the equations - often not a mathematical process at all.
Mode-locking
Much the same as path dependence, but this term is used by physicists and related scientists.
Moore's law
The observation by Gordon Moore (co-founder of Intel) in 1965 that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit (and by proxy, its computing power) doubles predictably every 18 months. Later revised up to 24 months. This 24 month doubling has been seen in many measures of computing and network performance (memory, instructions per second, clock cycles, wired and wireless bandwidth, network speed, etc.), for longer periods in some cases than in others.
Morphological analysis
A way of looking at the future, by dividing it into logically exclusive possibilities. First proposed by the medieval theologian Ramon Lull. A trivial example: what will the weather be at midday tomorrow? Looking at all possible combinations of sun, cloud, rain, and wind, not all of these are possible, and some conditional predictions can safely be made: e.g. there will not be both sun and rain in the same place unless it is windy. The website of the Swedish Morphological Society (www.swemorph.com) has a lot of information on this approach. The relevance tree and Field Anomaly Relaxation are related approaches, as is critical uncertainty.
Multiple perspectives
Considering a problem from a number of different viewpoints, either the viewpoints of different actors, or using different metaphors. The TOP approach of Harold Linstone is one of the best known multiple perspectives methods: looking at something from a Technological, Organizational/societal, or Personal/individual perspective. T emphasizes problem-solving or production; P emphasizes process and action; and P emphasizes influence and power (P). The 1993 book The Unbounded Mind by Ian I Mitroff and Harold A Linstone is one of the clearest explanations of multiple perspectives.
Normative
A normative scenario is one that describes a preferred future. (That's the futurists' sense of the word; it has a different meaning in psychological testing, where it refers to comparing individuals.)
Odds
Another way of expressing probability, often used in betting on sports. If an event has a 10% probability of happening, there are 9 ways it can happen for every 1 that it can't, so the odds are expressed as "9 to 1 against". Paradigm
A set of assumptions that are so widespread in a particular society that people hardly notice they think that way. A paradigm shift is a change in a paradigm - often not noticed till it's well under way. Paradigm shifts take years to happen - for example, the gradual acceptance of Darwin's evolutionary theory, superseding religious creation theories.
Path dependence
When it's hard to escape from a state you're in. For example, if you're used to the arrangement of keys on the standard QWERTY typewriter keyboard, it will be difficult for you to learn the more efficient Dvorak keyboard, with the letters differently arranged: you are path-dependent. Much the same as mode-locking.
Pattern language
A concept originated by the architect Christopher Alexander. It refers to a set of repeated patterns, on a wide range of scales, that apply in urban design and architecture. In the 1990s this idea was taken up by software developers, who found repeated patterns in the software they were writing. The same concept can be applied to time: though history never repeats itself exactly, the same general patterns occur again and again. Thus there can be a pattern language of events. See event sequence analysis.
Pluralism
The condition of being multiple or plural. A condition in which numerous distinct ethnic, religious, or cultural groups are present and tolerated within a society. The belief that such a condition is desirable or socially beneficial. In philosophy, the belief that no single explanatory system or view of reality can account for all the phenomena of life.
Positive-Sum Game / Non-Zero Sum Game / Win-Win Game
A game or interaction which is designed in such a way that all participants can profit from it in one way or another. Either the number of desirable outcomes or the size of the whole resource grows by playing the game, so that even if if one's percentage return decreases from year 1 to year 2, one's absolute return may go up. Compare this to a zero-sum game where only one or a few can win, and where one's getting more must always involve another's getting less. Capitalism, democracy, fair laws, and moral/ethical codes are all often considered examples of positive-sum games that are "played" heavily by most societies on Earth today. Because playing these games (following their rules) makes certain resources more available over time, more people can "win" more every year compared to last year, even as they compete for the same things. Consider the way the size of a capitalist economy grows over time, or the way access to citizen services grows over time in a healthy democracy. See Nonzero, Robert Wright, 2001 for an acclaimed book on the way these games have evolved over human history and where they may go in the future.

Precursor
When social trends happen earlier in some places, among some groups of people, the latter are called precursors - and studying them may provide leading indicators. Places such as Scandinavia and California are often considered precursors, as are well-educated young adults. Since the 1960s, the baby boomer generation has been a precursor group in a wide range of ways. Similar to bellwether. Used in emerging issues analysis.
Prediction
A specific statement that something will happen in the future. "It will rain tomorrow" is a prediction, and so is "If the wind is westerly and I sleep till after 8am, it will rain tomorrow" - but "it may rain tomorrow" is not a prediction.
Probability
The likelihood that an event will occur, on a scale ranging from 0 (no chance at all) to 1 (or 100% - totally predictable). Related to odds.
Prognosis
A set of expectations for a future that seems likely to occur - e.g. if world interest rates decline this year, the prognosis is that share prices will increase. A prognosis would be less certain than a prediction but more certain than a forecast.
Projection
A term used in forecasting, similar to extrapolation. For example, if the population of a city was 90,000 last year and 100,000 this year, the simplest projection would be for a population of 110,000 next year. These days, forecasts often produce multiple projections, depending on various assumptions. For example, an assumption of high economic growth for the city might lead to a projection of 115,000, while low economic growth might give a projected population of 105,000.
Prospective (la)
A term used by French futurist Michel Godet to label a set of scenario-based methods he has developed for examining the future. La prospective (pronounced prospecTEEV , as in French) involves assessing the likely motives and actions of all actors involved in a situation, and produces numerical results.
Prospective evaluation
Evaluating the success of a project that hasn't yet begun. Can take the form of environmental impact analysis or social impact analysis - but cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis are not usually regarded as prospective evaluation.
Qualitative forecasting
Much the same as judgemental forecasting.
Reflexivity
One reason why forecasting, in human affairs, doesn't work very well. If people know they are expected to behave in a certain way, they're likely to change that way, and spoil the forecast. Stock exchanges are a good example of reflexivity, with the investors trying to out-anticipate one another. Bandwagon and underdog effects are also examples of reflexivity. Reframing
Looking at a situation or problem in a different way, or from a different point of view, often using multiple perspectives. For example, consider what's missing from a situation instead of what's present, or ask "How would a Martian visitor describe this to other Martians?" As people often can't see their own viewpoints - particularly in an organization they're immersed in - it helps to bring in an outsider - perhaps even a Martian. See also framing and episteme.
Relevance tree
A hierarchical way of representing all possibilities in a situation. For example, a relevance tree for an organization in ten years' time might be
1. Will it exist or not?
2. If it exists, will it be in the same form as now, or a different form?
As each question has several possible answers, the tree splits into several branches at each question. If the logic is rigorous, every possibility must be covered. However the shape of the tree depends on the order in which the questions are asked, and this is reliance on judgement is this method's weakness. See Morphological analysis, which is related.
Risk
Do you already know what risk is? But perhaps you're not aware that it has two senses: the negative and the positive. Risks are usually seen as threats - the risk of something bad happening - but they can also be opportunities. To perceive risk only as a threat is a recipe for inaction: "We'd better not do X because it has risks." A balanced view of risk can be more helpful in making decisions.
S-curve
Also called a sigmoid or logistic curve. A generic change curve, seen in many types of natural and social systems: they begin very slowly, gradually accelerate, then slow down again as penetration approaches 100% of the population. Think of population growth in a finite environment, adoption of consumer products, the growth in types of knowledge, etc.
Scanning
Abbreviation for environmental scanning, used when there is no ambiguity. Scenario
Normally (in futures studies) this refers to brief description of a possible future. This is known as a snapshot scenario, because it's like a snapshot or photo of the future. A slightly different meaning, also used in futures studies, is that a scenario is a description of the route from now to a possible future. This is known as a chain scenario. Unlike a forecast, which predicts future values of a few specific variables, a scenario is more descriptive than numerical. Dennis List's Scenario network mapping is a variant of scenario planning, more similar to Causal Layered Analysis.
Scenario planning / scenario learning
What do you do with scenarios when you've created a set of them? There are two main uses. You could use them to make a plan, perhaps to help with your strategic planning. Alternatively, you could focus on the learning process among the people who created the scenarios. Of course, many scenario ensembles are used for both purposes.
Self-fulfilling prophecy
A prediction that helps itself to come true: for example, the belief that the price of a company's shares will drop is often self-fulfilling. The opposite, maybe more common, is the self-defeating prophecy: for example, Herman Kahn's books outlining scenarios for nuclear war (though not exactly prophecies) perhaps convinced US and Soviet government officials that nobody would gain from such a war, thus helping to prevent it. Self-organization
Similar to emergence - what happens when a group of people (or animals) spontaneously organize themselves for some purpose, without any control from "above". This covers everything from birds flying in formation to spontaneous independence movements.
Simulation
Modelling with an element of time, using either a computer program or a game with human players. A series of events is simulated, to find out what's likely to happen next.
Snapshot scenario
A scenario, usually written in the present tense, describing an environment at some time in the future as a fait accompis (an accomplished event), but leaving out the steps by which this environment emerged from the present day. Most published scenarios are of this type. See chain scenario for the alternative.
STEEPS3 foresight categories model
(Pronounced: "Steeps three"). A way of looking at the future in terms of eight general subject categories:
Science (abbreviated "S zero"),
Technology & Information ("T"),
Environment, Energy, Resources, and Global Issues ("E one"),
Economics, Globalization & Capitalism ("E two"),
Politics, Security & Democracy ("P"),
Society (Big): Culture, Media, Education & Religion ("S one"),
Society (Medium): Business & Organizations ("S two"), and
Society (Small): Personal & Career ("S three").
One advantage of STEEPS3 over other foresight category models is that, for those who wish to see it this way, it roughly stacks the change drivers in the order of fastest, most powerful, most fundamental, or most irreversible first. If you don't know what's happening in the relevant science labs and theory, then you can't adequately evaluate technology and information futures and options, and so on down the list. It is a bias to consider STEEP drivers as either faster, more powerful, more fundamental, or more irreversible than S3 (big, medium, and small society), and to believe that these drivers can often shape and constrain society's options even more than society shapes and constrains them, and it is not necessary to accept this view to use the STEEPS3 model. But in a world of accelerating sci-tech change, this may be a relatively accurate view. Human society not fully controlling science and technology, but is rather partially controlling it, and helping it to become more powerful, relative to nontechnological humanity, every day. STEEPS3 is ASF's expansion of the older but less useful "STEEP" Foresight Categories Model, where S is Society (considered as all one type), and Science is lumped in with technology (two very different beasts). One danger of all categorical foresight models is that after considering each of the 8 (or 5, or whatever) change drivers and how they interact, you may stop looking for influences. Such models are helpful for starting an environmental scanning process, but you always need to consider "What else?"
Strategic intent
Statements of Strategic Intent - much the same as Strategic Purpose - are becoming popular with large organizations. These are shorter and looser than a strategic plan, but more detailed than a mission or vision statement. They describe what the organization is trying to accomplish, in practical terms.
Strategic planning and scenario planning
The differences between strategic planning and scenario planning:

Strategic planning is about one organization; scenario planning usually has a broader scope, e.g. an industry or a geographical area.
Strategic planning implies that the organization can set and achieve its targets regardless of its environment; scenario planning takes a broader range of factors into account, sometimes implying that the organization has no control over its environment.

Scenario planning is often done as an input to strategic planning - but rarely vice versa.
Subjective forecasting
Much the same as judgemental forecasting. The result is still expressed in numerical terms, but human judgement is involved in predicting the correct numerical outcome, taking into account factors that a forecast based solely on past trends will not reflect. For example, if a new government policy is likely to change the demand for a product or service, its effect can only be assessed subjectively.
Surmise
Similar to Conjecture - a recognition that something may happen, and what might follow from that. A famous example, from a poem by Keats: Like stout Cortes when, with eagle eyes He stared at the Pacific, and all his men Looked at each other with a wild surmise, Silent upon a peak in Darien. - though actually it was Balboa, not Keats, who was the first European to see the Pacific.
Surprise
When a gap suddenly arises between your perceptions and your expectations of a situation, that's surprise. It can happen either because your expectations were unrealistic, or your perceptions are wrong. As expectations gradually adjust, the level of surprise fades away. Managers of organizations dislike surprises, regarding them as bad news, but for young children, surprises (often stage-managed by parents) are good news. Is there room for rapprochement here? See also wildcard and discontinuity.
Notice that "surprise" has two different meanings - it's both a cause and an effect - a surprise [cause] surprises [effect] you. The surprise that you then feel is an effect. Failure to notice this distinction has caused some confusion in writings on surprise.
Sustainability
"Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." This elegantly succinct definition comes from the Brundtland Commission of 1983.
Synchronic
The view of history as a set of situations (rather than events) occurring at the same time and influencing one another. The counterpart of diachronic. Synergy
When two factors are combined, something can happen that doesn't happen with either of them separately. For example, with two-pack epoxy glue, the glue doesn't work until the two liquids are mixed. And nichrome alloy (steel, nickel, chromium) is tougher than any of its three component metals. And it takes both a woman and a man to produce a baby. The inventor Buckminster Fuller defined synergy concisely as "the behaviour of whole systems unpredicted by the behaviour of their parts."
System dynamics
An approach popularized by Jay Forrester and the Club of Rome in the 1970s with its controversial book Limits to Growth. Social change is described in terms of stocks and flows, with loops of positive and negative feedback, and various time lags. This is q quantitative method. Numbers are attached to the various inputs, and software calculates outputs - which are often not intuitive. Not so well suited to sitations that can't be readily quantified.
Systems thinking
Thinking about things as if they are systems - with inputs, processes, and outputs, and boundaries. Systems often contain subsystems, and/or are part of larger systems (see holon). It's important to realize that systems are a human's view of the world, not intrinsic properties of a world, so (specially for social systems) boundaries are usually arguable. Even something seemingly as immutable as the Solar System can be redefined - e.g. with the recent decision that Pluto is not a planet after all.
Technological singularity
The point at which machine intelligence becomes generally human-surpassing (general artificial intelligence) not just in very specific areas of intelligence (a has already occurred today), but in a generalized sense, and including all our "higher" mental features (imagination, creativity, emotion, empathy, morality, linguistic ability). Alternatively, the point at which machines successfully claim to be conscious (perhaps in a court of law), even if they are not yet human-surpassing in all aspects of their intelligence.
Another more scientific/physical definition of the singularity is a phase change (phase transition) in a complex system (like Earth's human-machine intelligence system), like the move from gas to liquid or from liquid to solid. New dynamical models, both different from and at least partially unpredicted from their predecessors, emerge. A third definition, perhaps the weakest, is based on the human-observed pace of technological change, which is ever-increasing. When the observed rate of change starts to look infinite or instantaneous to today's unaugmented human observers, a singularity may be said to have occurred. See Wikipedia def. See also superexponential change.
Technology foresight
A term normally used in a public policy context: planning for sustainable technology development. Futures methods such as Delphi are commonly used in technology foresight. See Constructive technology assessment. Technology roadmapping
When a new invention goes into production, there are often many suppliers and intermediaries who need to be coordinated. Technology roadmapping (TRM for short) is becoming a popular method for doing this; the end result is a timetable-like graph showing who needs to do what, at what point on the time-line.
Terminal scenario / developmental attractor
A scenario describing a future situation that no longer changes substantially because it is in some way terminal, or an endstate. In The End of History, 2006, Frank Fukuyama popularized the idea that capitalist social democracy may be an endstate scenario for all civilized governments of humans, by humans. Universal evo devo theory would call such endstates developmental attractors, as they may be "ideal" configurations for complex systems in our universe, discovered independently by many, most, or all life forms throughout our universe, even as they each take different evolutionary paths toward the endstates.
Time horizon
How far into the future a person or organization considers possibilities. If a company has a 3-year plan, and never looks beyond that, its time horizon is three years.
TINA: There Is No Alternative
An expression of determinism, first used by the Thatcher government in the UK in the 1980s, then applied to globalization, and generalized to the concept of unstoppable forces driving the future.
TOP: Technological, Organizational, Personal
An acronym used in multiple perspectives thinking, examining the world using three broad kinds of perspective: the Technological, the Organizational, and the Personal. A concept developed by Harold Linstone and Ian Mitroff.
Trend
A measure that has been changing steadily. "The trend over the last 20 years has been for more and more people to go to university." When used to refer to fashion, Trend has a much looser meaning, not relevant here.
UGSOP foresight systems model
A way of looking at the future in terms of five complex systems, moving from larger to smaller: Universal, Global, Societal (Socio-Economic, Socio-Political, Socio-Cultural), Organizational, and Personal. Different issues and dynamics operate at each system level.
Uncertainty
Contrasts with a trend. A trend is something that's gradually happening. An uncertainty is a trend or event that has a reasonable chance of happening. If it does happen, and it will make a major difference, it's known as a critical uncertainty. But a wildcard usually isn't considered a critical uncertainty, because it's too unlikely. A wildcard is that the earth could be hit by a giant comet next week. Though this might cause a problem or two, it wouldn't be considered a critical uncertainty.
Universa evolutionary development / universal evo devo
An emerging discipline in systems theory, theoretical biology, and astrobiology (see Development and Evolution, Stan Salthe, 1993 and Life's Solution, Simon Conway Morris, 2004) that explores the relationship between processes of evolution and development at universal scales. The process of "convergent evolution" may be seen as a process of universal development at these scales, and much can be learned from the emerging science of evolutionary developmental biology and applied to universal scales. See evolutionary development.
Utopia
A perfect future society (though sometimes not so perfect when examined closely!) The most famous example is the book Utopia by Sir Thomas More (1516). For more, see the Faber Book of Utopias (1999) edited by John Carey. There is also eutopia - a place that's not perfect, but good enough, or better than the present.
Vision
A vision is a clear view of the future, usually one that an organization is working toward achieving for itself. Note that a vision is usually singular: an organization with a unified vision statement is not thinking about alternative futures.
VUCA: Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity
A U.S. army way of describing a difficult situation. Iraq today, perhaps. "We live in times of VUCA."
Weltanschauung
A German word, often used in English, meaning Worldview.
Wildcard
An event which is highly unlikely to happen, but would have a huge impact if it did. An example might be an asteroid colliding with the earth. But though the probability of any one wild card event is very low, so many different wild cards are possible that the combined chance of one of them happening - somewhere in the world, over some time extended period - can be quite high. Though winning a lottery is an example of a positive wildcard, they are usually bad news - unpleasant surprises. Similar to discontinuity.
Worldview
The way in which people see the world, with an emphasis on their unconscious assumptions, mindsets, and the principles that they will not question. Similar to paradigm. See also mindset.
Zeitgeist
German for "spirit of the times". A concept that people implicitly believe in for years, without realizing it, or being able to express it in words. Usually the zeitgeist becomes obvious only when it changes.
Zero-Sum Game / Win-Lose Game
A game or interaction where one's winning must come at the cost of another, because the desired resources or outcomes are scarce and can't be easily substituted with an alternative. Games like tic-tac-toe, and chess (where only one can win), and many political contests over scarce resources are zero-sum games. Curiously, the more futures-oriented and long-term the view the politician, the more often they are able to see and support the growth of total resources over time, and therefore the more they are willing to change their interactions into positive sum (win-win) games.
ZOPP
Ziel-Orienterte Projekt Planung (in German) - in English, Objectives- Oriented Project Planning (OOPP). A complex method of planning projects in the developing countries, based on Logical Framework Analysis, and created by the German aid agency GTZ,. Explained further on GTZ's website at www.gtz.de. Part of ZOPP is the problem tree, which can be converted into an event tree for use in futures work.

New Glossary Additions / Words to Be Defined
________________________________________________________
Please place them below if you want them reviewed by the instructor. Try to find a definition yourself on the web first.

Syllabus

JohnMSmart — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 02:12:38 CDT

Course Title: Foresight Development (TCH110)
Course Prerequisites: None
Credit Hours: 3.0cd. General Studies Credits: 3.0

I. Course Description
Foresight is the act of looking to the future. This course helps you learn better global, business and personal foresight, so you can better enjoy and manage your own future. This course will explore the big picture history of accelerating change from universal, historical and technological perspectives, and consider global trends that are affecting individuals, society, businesses and governments. Additionally, the course will examine how organizations make bets on the future, and gives the student a chance to explore career prospects in a variety of fields. Finally, discussion of how biology, psychology, community and culture help and hinder personal thinking about the future will be discussed. We will explore four fundamental foresight skills: creating the future (innovating products and services); discovering the future (models, trend identification and analysis); planning the future (developing shared goals and processes); and benefiting in the future (achieving measurable positive environmental, social, or economic results). Assignments will be personalized to your own foresight goals, and include brief readings, writing, discussions, presentations, visuals, film, podcasts and games.

II. Course Goal and Objectives
Goal
Students will gain familiarity with basic methods and resources of Futures Studies (FS), and the development of Personal Futures Skills (PFS) that may be of use in their own future. We focus on FS in the first half, and do a blend of FS and PFS in the second half of the course.

Objectives - General
· Learn some valuable foresight concepts in weekly class meetings
· In-class introduction of several “Great Futures Books” (GFBs) each week
· Read three assigned books, skim parts of four other GFBs (your choice)
· One of our assigned books covers Professional Futures Methods (Thinking About the Future), and two are on Personal Futures Methods (Getting Things Done, StrengthsFinder).
· Take some predictive personality tests (these will not be graded)
· Read some futures-related articles, watch videos, listen to audio, play some games
· Practice universal, global, societal, organizational, and personal foresight thinking
· Develop your future-creating, -discovering, and -management (planning and benefiting) skills
· Communicate clearly about the future (what you think is possible, probable, and preferable in areas of interest to you)
· Have fun. You should enjoy this course!

Objectives - Graded
· Discuss and debate futures issues in the classroom (100 points)
· Discuss and critique futures issues online (100 points)
· Discover FS resources on the web or elsewhere for the class wiki (100 points)
· Write four short (500 word) essays on Resources + GFBs of your choosing (4 x 50 = 200 points)
· Take two midterms (weeks 6 and 11) on basic tools and ideas in FS (2 x 150 = 300 points)
· Build a Personal Futures Portfolio (PFP) over the course (graded on your application of basic foresight skills to your own life, not on portfolio content). Turning in the PFP is your final exam (no in-class final) (200 points)

III. Method of Evaluation
There are 1000 possible course points, divided by 10 to give your final score. An overall cumulative grade of 60-69 is a D, 70-79 a C, 80-89 a B, 90-100 an A. Exams and the course as a whole are curved. We want very few F’s and D’s, but you have to help us with that by clearly showing your effort over the course. Just showing up, participating, and doing the work on time (following the directions as written) will typically (usually) get you to 70, above that is up to you.

There are many small and easy assignments in the course, none worth more than 20% of the grade. Those who can’t do lots of small easy things on time, who typically do things late or last minute, or who think they can put all their effort into just the larger assignments will not do well in this course. Like life, TCH110 rewards consistently thinking about and planning for the future, and giving your best in small easy steps at the right time, not ignoring things for weeks and then trying to do them all at once later.

Grading criteria:
| Class Discussion and Debate | 10% | 100 points
| Online Discussions and Critiques | 10% | 100 points
| Discovery Learning / Wikiraids | 10% | 100 points
| Writing Assignments | 20% | 200 points
| Online Open Book Midterm I (Week 6) | 15% | 150 points
| Online Open Book Midterm II (Week 11) | 15% | 150 points
| Personal Futures Portfolio/Final (due Week 15) | 20% | 200 points

IV. Teaching Strategies and IP Policy
UAT actively utilizes the Year-Round Balanced Learning (YRBL) model for addressing different learning styles. The YRBL model consists of five delivery methods that include: 1) modified lecture, 2) tutorial teaching, 3) group recollection, 4) student teachback and 5) discovery learning. Students will engage in both synchronous learning activities in regular class periods and asynchronous online activities. Group activities and team building are strongly encouraged within the synchronous and asynchronous environments. The University of Advancing Technology holds non-exclusive rights to student projects to publish for promotional purposes only. By attending the school, students give implicit permission for the school to use their work in catalogs, brochures, etc. Students retain original rights to their projects and may market them as they see fit.

V. Instructional Materials(Check the UAT bookstore for the following three required books)
a.Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Hines & Bishop, 2007 ($20).
ISBN-13: 978-0978931704. This is our main textbook.
b. StrengthsFinder 2.0, Tom Rath, 2007 ($15). ISBN-13: 978-1595620156
You’ll use this to take an online personality test, part of your Personal Futures Portfolio.
Note: You need to purchase a NEW StrengthsFinder 2.0 to get an unopened Online Test Code.
c. Getting Things Done, David Allen, 2002 ($10). ISBN-13: 978-0142000281
A very helpful “life management” system. We’ll cover it in personal futures.
d. Reading, viewing, listening, and playing materials posted to eCollege, or at the library
e. Great Futures Books (GFBs). Every week we’ll review several “Great Futures Books” (GFBs). Every two to five weeks (four times over the semester) you are asked to 1) buy online (for your personal library), OR 2) borrow from the library one GFB of your choice from this group. You’ll skim it just enough to develop a set of futures-relevant insights to share, in the form of a 500 word essay you’ll post online (a “teachback” for your classmates). If you know of another futures-relevant book more interesting than the ones we have covered, let me know and you can probably review that one instead.

VI. Course Outline
SECTION I. The Big Picture (Weeks 1-4)
SECTION II. Global and Societal Foresight (Weeks 5-9)
SECTION III. Business and Organizational Foresight (Weeks 10-11)
SECTION IV. Personal and Career Foresight (Weeks 12-15)
Weekly assignments (required and choice-based) will be posted on the course shell over the class.

VII. Policies
Prompt and regular attendance is expected. If you have to skip, arrive late, leave early, etc. you don’t need to furnish an excuse (we’re all adults here) but do it regularly or often and it will reflect negatively on your grade. Twice as many late arrivals, early departures, or absences than the (usually low) class average is where you will run into trouble. Reach or go above that without good reason and you risk losing a full grade in the course.

Late assignments are marked down 10% for every 24 hours late, excuses usually don’t change things. Thus after nine days late no points can be given. Rewrites of any non-late writing assignment below a B (80%) can be turned in once within one week of receiving the first grade, for a regrade and grade averaging.

Group activities and team building are encouraged in and out of class, but for non-team projects, your homework and online tests must be your own work, in your own words. See the school policy on academic integrity for more.

Essays should be written as clearly and grammatically as you can. Always cite and use quotations for work that is not your own; plagiarism is grounds for failure of the course. I encourage the use of APA style (look it up) for your essay citations. This said, I will be grading more for clarity of expression and the futures implications and relevance of your thoughts than for grammar or style.

Exams cover the slides, any points made by the instructor that are directly about the slide material in class (but not other in class discussions or comments), and the assigned readings/resources. We cover a lot in this fast-paced class, so good notetaking is encouraged and a skill you will hopefully use and improve during the course.

General grading and feedback standards: I will do my best as an educator to “educe” (draw out, elicit) your ideas, interests, assumptions, and values in regard to the future, in a courteous and supportive manner. I’ll also try to respond to your email within 48 hours and get your papers back within two weeks. I expect you to do your best to communicate in class and online accurately, courteously, and supportively with your fellow students, and would appreciate similar promptness.

Please say your first names when you make a comment in class during the first three weeks, to help us get to know each other on a first-name basis.

VIII. Last Words
This may be the only dedicated FS course you get in your undergrad curriculum, so we will cover a lot of (hopefully interesting!) material in class, more than most courses, I’m sure. But your workload outside of class should be no more than other courses. Let me know if otherwise and we will fix that. Looking forward to learning and exploring your thoughts, concerns, and passions about the future!

IX. Date of Last Review of Syllabus: 13 Dec 2007
This syllabus is a guideline only. UAT and its faculty maintain the right to utilize academic freedom in adapting this course to meet the needs of each individual class.

All material on this wiki is open source, creative commons licensed. Feel free to use any portion of this with appropriate attribution to "University of Advancing Technology, Foresight Development curriculum."

Audios

JohnMSmart — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 18:29:16 CDT

Great Futures Audios and Audio Sites
In Top, STEEPS3, Multidisciplinary, and Fiction Categories
Place them in alpha order under each category, please.

Top Futures Audios and Audio Sites

Science, Evolution, and Development Audios and Audio Sites

Technology and Information Audios and Audio Sites

Singularity Summit 2007 Podcasts - Artificial Intelligence

The Long Now Foundation: Seminars on long term thinking
Dozens of talks, in MP3 format, about cutting-edge futurist topics - Pajamas

Environment, Energy, Resources, and GlobalAudios and Audio Sites

Economics, Globalization, and CapitalismAudios and Audio Sites

China, Inc.: How the Next Superpower Challenges America & the World, Ted Fishman, 2005
The World is Flat: A Brief History of the 21st Century, Thomas Friedman, 2006

Politics, Security, and DemocracyAudios and Audio Sites

The Assault on Reason: The Challenge to American Democracy, Al Gore, 2007

Society 1 (Big): Culture, Media, Education and ReligionAudios and Audio Sites

Lies My Teacher Told Me: What Your History Textbook Got Wrong, James Loewen, 2003
The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Malcolm Gladwell, 2007
The Wisdom of Crowds: Collective Wisdom in Business and Societies, James Suroweicki, 2004

Society 2 (Medium): Business and OrganizationAudios and Audio Sites

What If 2?: Top Historians Imagine What Might Have Been, Rob Crowley, 2002 (Unabridged)

Society 3 (Small): Personal & CareerAudios and Audio Sites

Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why, Laurence Gonzales, 2004

MultidisciplinaryAudios and Audio Sites
Pandora A website that streams music based on which songs you've previously indicated liking. Another step in the automated customization of our internet experience. - Pajamas

Realistic Future Fiction (RFF) Audio and Audio Sites
[Realistic future fiction has major parts which feel like they actually could happen in the future, under the right circumstances. Almost all fantasy stories and most science fiction stories really don't count as realistic--there are exceptions however, and if you think that some particular aspect of a fantasy or SF book feels realistic, include it here and explain why. Realistic future fiction is a subgenre of general or science fiction that feels realistic (it could actually happen) most of the way through, to most readers. Well-crafted and highly realistic realistic future fiction is rare, as you can imagine.]

Realistic Singularity Fiction (RSF).
By far the most obvious monumental sci-tech advance looming ahead of us is the arrival of greater than human intelligence, likely within this 21st century. Judith Berman, in "Science Fiction Without the Future," 2001, noted that writing about the coming AI is so difficult (emotionally and intellectually) that most sci-fi writers, and their readers in collusion, have simply abandoned reading or thinking about realistic science fiction, turning to comfortable fantasy instead (e.g., Star Trek and other such impossible but comforting 'space operas'). Nevertheless, there are a handful of efforts that attempt to realistically describe the likely coming emergence of AI, and the implications of an AI world on human beings, in at least a partially plausibile way. We call such fiction RSF.
Here are a few RSF favorites:

Society of the Mind, Eric L. Harry, 1996
Good cyberthriller about increasingly intelligent robots emerging in the decades ahead. Discusses the fascinating question of whether AIs could have mental illness, and one scenario for how that issue might play out. Take it along for your next drive!

Other Realistic Future Fiction
(Student-Submitted, Alpha Order by Title).

Audios and Audio Sites of Uncertain Classification
Put below anyaudios, podcasts, or audio sites you recommend but can't easily classify above...
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Update Music
Our music is so already in the future adn we dont even know this. Things like our ipod can actually after awhile program its self to play every song you like and put the ones you dont like as much to the back and this is on shuffle mode and yes its allow you to just make your life easier where you dont have to push the button cause you know your ipod is going to just play what song you want to hear next. Thats so advance but not even as advanced as Bill Gates where he have his house program to adjust to your body mood and play a song that you will just love to hear or to make you feel better=Darnell Aka Parapper